A Questionable Poll With All Dems Up in Georgia

Democrats almost assuredly like the results from the latest Gravis Marketing poll.

Trump disapproval 49%, only 46% approve! Generic Dem congressional candidate up by four points! Abrams over Kemp by two points! Sarah Riggs Amico(!) over Goff [sic] Duncan by two points! Barrow over Raffensberger by four(!) points! Same-sex marriage supporters outnumber opponents by three percent! 

But after earning a Medill F for the Lite Gov race there’s a minor chestnut to consider: how could Georgia Democrats have this rosy an outlook?

Maybe because the respondents were evenly split between Trump/Clinton voters. And 54% female. And the poll was conducted just after the GOP runoff.

So perhaps this is accurate. But it seems a bit unlikely to this blogger.

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LoyaltyIsMyHonor
LoyaltyIsMyHonor

A fake poll?

In other news….

FreeDuck
FreeDuck

Small sample, online poll, cell phone users only, high margin of error (3.8). I wouldn’t put much stock in this poll without some corroborating polls.

CalmlyBallistic
CalmlyBallistic

The true numbers for Georgia probably are within +/- 3.8 percentage points, which means Democrats should be that excited unless they think just being close is the same thing as winning. FiveThirtyEight gives them a C+ on accuracy (link below). It’s believable that the numbers would be close, though – Trump only carried Georgia by 5.2 percentage points, the lowest margin of any Republican since 1996.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

CalmlyBallistic
CalmlyBallistic

*shouldn’t be excited. I should really learn to proofread.

Noway2016
Noway2016

538 giving marks on ANYONE’S accuracy is a joke. This from the folks who had Hilly winning at 10 pm!!! Laughable!

Ellynn
Ellynn

Methodology, Tabs…?

Indypendant
Indypendant

You want questionable polling? How about the actual results from the Republican governors runoff?

No freaking way Kemp picks up that many votes. Looks like two hackers did the job of one.

The Eiger
The Eiger

If someone was going to hack an election they wouldn’t change the vote to a 70-30 win. That would be too obvious. Also, the same hackers must have hacked Casey’s internal polling and showed him tanking in the last week too.

But bless your heart and you just do you.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Surely only a hacker would give one candidate 69 percent.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Tabasco, Indy. Or are you a Texas Pete fan?

chefdavid
chefdavid
armanidog
armanidog

“And President Trump’s approval rating is currently at 48% on Rasmussen Reports.”
“Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. ”

The Economist/YouGov for a similar date range (7/29-7/31) has his approval at 43%.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Will Durant
Will Durant

Fivethirtyeight’s aggregate of polls shows him at 41.3% approval.

Sally Forth
Sally Forth

Does anybody know who Gravis is?? I’m trying to figure out why anybody should put stock in their polling about anything, not just this.

Ellynn
Ellynn

Look at the client list…

http://www.gravismarketing.com/

Teri
Teri

Huh.

Sally Forth
Sally Forth

I only recognize two names out of the bunch – which doesn’t say much for either him or me, not sure which! It does indicate that’s not a top-drawer polling organization, like was my first impression. Thanks, Ellynn.