UPDATED — Abrams Leads Both Republicans in First General Election Poll

The Stacey Abrams campaign’s first internal poll has Abrams winning over both Casey Cagle and Brian Kemp. (The full memo is below)

Her numbers are: 48-43 over Cagle and 49-40 over Kemp.

Fred Yang with Hart Research, the Abrams’ campaign pollster, said the poll was conducted statewide with 601 likely voters last week. He said their sample was 45% Trump voters in 2016 compared to 43% Clinton supporters.

“Given all the evidence we’re seeing in 2018,” Yang said “I think the more likely scenario is the sample on election day will be more Democrat than the sample I polled last week.”

“We’re seeing a surge of Democratic turnout,” he added coupled with “muted Republican turnout”. 

Some other information Yang provided: 

  • Abrams has 76% statewide name identification Cagle and Kemp are at 79 and 77
  • Abrams has 44% positive recognition and 16% negative while Cagle and Kemp are 28% positive/21% negative and 33% positive and 21% negative respectively
  • Abrams has two-to-one favorability with independents while the Republicans are “more even”
  • The poll’s independents said they voted for Trump by 20 points and as Yang noted “these independents have a better view of the Democrat 
  • Yang said the Democratic turnout in November “could be higher than in past elections”
  • “The electorate in Georgia is much more focused on the issues of the economy and healthcare than other issues” Yang said
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