UPDATED — Abrams Leads Both Republicans in First General Election Poll

The Stacey Abrams campaign’s first internal poll has Abrams winning over both Casey Cagle and Brian Kemp. (The full memo is below)

Her numbers are: 48-43 over Cagle and 49-40 over Kemp.

Fred Yang with Hart Research, the Abrams’ campaign pollster, said the poll was conducted statewide with 601 likely voters last week. He said their sample was 45% Trump voters in 2016 compared to 43% Clinton supporters.

“Given all the evidence we’re seeing in 2018,” Yang said “I think the more likely scenario is the sample on election day will be more Democrat than the sample I polled last week.”

“We’re seeing a surge of Democratic turnout,” he added coupled with “muted Republican turnout”. 

Some other information Yang provided: 

  • Abrams has 76% statewide name identification Cagle and Kemp are at 79 and 77
  • Abrams has 44% positive recognition and 16% negative while Cagle and Kemp are 28% positive/21% negative and 33% positive and 21% negative respectively
  • Abrams has two-to-one favorability with independents while the Republicans are “more even”
  • The poll’s independents said they voted for Trump by 20 points and as Yang noted “these independents have a better view of the Democrat 
  • Yang said the Democratic turnout in November “could be higher than in past elections”
  • “The electorate in Georgia is much more focused on the issues of the economy and healthcare than other issues” Yang said

 

 

 

 

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George Chidi
George Chidi

I want to believe. I would simply note two things.

One, no poll taken before Republicans have chosen a candidate is predictive, since the party is likely to consolidate support behind their nominee.

And two … I’ve never heard of this guy. And in Georgia “I’ve never heard of this guy” usually means that this guy’s chances of accurately polling the Georgia electorate is akin to a dart game at Manuel’s.

Rountree is the gold standard. I’ll wait.

xdog
xdog

Agreed that no-candidate polling is suspect.

I never heard of them either but they’ve been around for a while and 538 rates them B+ on their public polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Will Durant
Will Durant

“Internal poll” causing one to wonder. Just what is in that Kool Aid?

Mark Rountree
Mark Rountree

The first problem with the poll is obvious: they are simply asking voters which candidate for President they voted for and, I assume, weighting by that. Stupid and blatantly wrong way to do it. Furthermore, Trump carried 51.05% of the state of Georgia’s vote, yet their own methodology statement is that they found only 45% of voters saying they voted for Trump. They apparently under-polled Republicans. Wonder why? Their own memo: “…for example, our sample yielded a party ID result of 40% Democratic and 42% Republican, and in the recalled 2016 presidential vote, Donald Trump was at 45% and Hillary… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Furthermore, Trump carried 51.05% of the state of Georgia’s vote, yet their own methodology statement is that they found only 45% of voters saying they voted for Trump. I agree they probably needed a bigger Republican share than 42% but I don’t think the paragraph you’re talking about indicates “stupid and blatantly wrong” methodology. Specifically, it’s too simplistic to conflate “voted Trump” with “Republican.” Not only are there Republicans that didn’t vote for Trump in ’16, but there’s also the possibility of Trump voters that no longer want to publicly admit that they voted for him (just like there were… Read more »

Mark Rountree
Mark Rountree

Thanks Andrew. I understand your point. However, it is silly for them to equate Republican vote with the Trump voted for many reasons, which is why it’s wrong. Trump was also carrying 80-90% of the vote in many rural areas that still have many Democrats in them, as well. It’s just not a factor that should be weighted, which they are apparently saying they have done. If anything, by definition either the poll has under polled Trump supporters or there is a giant lie-factor of people who voted for Trump but are not acknowledging it to the interviewer: otherwise the… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Referring to a candidate by their first name is a deader giveaway re: potential bias of the poll.

augusta52
augusta52

It would be interesting to see the breakdown between metro Atlanta and the rest of the state. In 2016, Clinton won metro Atlanta by 8 points, but lost the rest of the state by 24 points, for an overall 5-point loss. And in the last race for governor, Jason Carter barely won metro Atlanta (less than half a point) but trailed elsewhere in the state by 20 points, for an 8-point overall loss.

Pragmatic Progressive
Pragmatic Progressive

What counties do you consider Metro ATL when doing those calculations? I wanted to do some Obama 08-Barnes 10-Obama 12-Carter 14-Clinton 16 comparisons so I could set some targets that Abrams needs to hit both inside and outside the Metro. Thanks.

ScottNAtlanta
ScottNAtlanta

Another thing to never underestimate is the amount of crazy that can spew from the 2 republicans up until the run off. Abrams is very well situated to have a lock on the middle by then. The buzz word of this election will be REASONABLE. I dont think either republican can claim that title without a lot of laughing in the background

Benevolus
Benevolus

I’ll be curious to see the amount of “undecided for the first poll after the runoff. White male R vs Black female D. I suspect most people won’t need to delve too deep into the policies to make that choice.

But then again, I still see a lot of people driving around with their phone in their hand.

alpha male
alpha male

Actually I think the laughing you heard was me after reading Abrams, reasonable, and middle , in the same sentence.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I know no one takes this dude seriously, but LOL at the notion that Abrams is somehow further from the center, even in a right-of-center state like Georgia, than two dudes trying outdo one another on the “brown people suck” debate.

alpha male
alpha male

Well, the good news, Johnny one note, is that we are all gonna find out who Georgians find more reasonable and representative of their values.

Oh, and I suspect an overwhelming number of Georgians , rather than taking someone seriously, just laugh at and mock any clown whose only retort or response, regardless of subject, involves some version of “ rascist, rascist, rascist”.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Let’s get one thing straight… I didn’t call you a racist. That you’re choosing to project that on me reveals a great deal about your subconscious feelings re: race but, again, I didn’t call you a racist.

I did, however, say that you weren’t worth taking seriously, but that has more to do with how your posts are consistently uninformed and consist of little more than the microwaved leftovers of something Sean Hannity said the night before.

alpha male
alpha male

Let’s get one thing straight. You stated the 2 dudes, apparently Cagle and Kemp, are in a “ brown people suck” debate. That, I suspect, in most reasonable folks minds, would be an accusation of a rascist campaign.

Your postings in my opinion are consistently nothing more than race baiting . Whether they are your own thoughts or microwaved leftovers from daily kos, I know not. But I do know you are not worth my engaging with.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Hey look, here’s a Casey Cagle campaign ad conflating Latino immigrants with MS-13 gang members:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbwE4JrrRpQ

Hey look, here’s a Brian Kemp campaign ad in which he says (in his fake Southern accent) that he’s gonna ’round up immigrants and personally drive them back across the border.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q1cfjh6VfE

Do you really mean to tell me these guys aren’t engaged in a debate over how much brown people suck? Also, you need to check the definition of race baiting.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Oh, and bye Felicia.

augusta52
augusta52

Well, the metro Atlanta area does not quite reach Augusta, but it is moving slowly in that direction—based on the Census Bureau, the 29-county metro Atlanta area runs all the way from Alabama along I-20 all the way to Lake Oconee (thru Morgan County—Greene County on the other side of Lake Oconee is not in metro Atlanta), and from Dawson County along Ga. 400 all the way to Meriwether County not too far from Columbus. According to some historical account, when the Atlanta area was said to have reached a million people in late 1959, the region at that time… Read more »

Whatsben
Whatsben

This poll has already been dissected, but I would just add that a poll right now is mostly meaningless. Alot of moderate R’s who may be considering voting for Stacy now, won’t be after months of messaging demonizing her as an extreme liberal.

Benevolus
Benevolus

But 1.2 million black female voters might be extra motivated to vote this time.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Maybe you’ll be close to being right. Here’s what’s gonna happen. She will highlight the fact that she is the first black woman to ever be a major party candidate for governor in a southern state. No small feat to be sure. That alone will make her a sought after speaker and in the next Dem administration, she’ll get a federal appointment of some kind. But we all know she won’t be our next governor.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

On the contrary… I think Abrams litigates this thing on issues people actually care about: health care, education, jobs and we see some substantive debate between her and Kemp/Cagle on issues like Medicaid expansion, how to save struggling rural hospitals, income inequality, education funding, etc.

Then again, it’s equally possible that this turns into a fight about the “evil immigrants who are sneaking over the border to impose Sharia law, take our jobs, and turn all our kids gay.”

cbw
cbw

I will give it to you in that the R candidates for governor are over the top in their ads against illegal immigration, but the fact that you do not think illegal immigration is a valid issue nor one that is of concern with Georgia voters shows just how out of touch you are. Don’t bother lecturing how that makes us all racists…we have heard that tripe, ad nauseum.