September 23, 2018 8:02 PM
An internal poll for Stacey Abrams has the Democratic challenger leading Brian Kemp 48%-42% of likely voters.
The poll was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group who found in May that Abrams was beating Kemp 49%-40%.
I’m not smart enough to comment on the validity of the poll or the firm’s methods. However, GHY compares its results to The AJC‘s poll at the start of the month with both candidates at 45%.
From GHY’s memo:
Compared to the AJC survey, Stacey’s improvement comes from her tightening up the race among men (45% Abrams, 47% Kemp, versus the AJC’s 39% Abrams,53% Kemp), while Stacey maintains a double-digit margin among women (GHY: Abrams 52%-41%, AJC: Abrams 50%-39%).
In addition to Stacey’s current lead, she has more INTENSE support than Kemp,and among the sub-sample of respondents who say they are CERTAIN to vote, Stacey leads by a larger 51% to 43% margin. Both results are important given that voter intensity/turnout is a critical ingredient of winning midterm elections.