Provisional Ballots

Stacey Abrams’ campaign has not conceded.   Kemp’s camp says it’s over.

Cody Hall from Brian Kemp’s campaign said, “Kemp’s margin is so large that the number of provisional ballots and overseas ballots will not change his Election Day victory.”  He goes on to say, “it is mathematically impossible for Stacey Abrams to win or force a run off.”  What we do not know is which numbers Kemp is relying on to get to this claim.  What we do know is the certification of the election and the votes will be completed by Brian Kemp’s office.

Stacey Abrams’ math is a bit different.  Lauren Groh-Wargo, Abrams’ campaign manager issued an official update today.  According to the update, Abrams is only 15,000 votes away from the legal run-off threshold.

The update shared by an excited Abrams supporter on social media said that in Cobb there are between 25,000 – 26,000 votes submitted by mail that must be processed.  According to the Abrams’ campaign update Cobb, Gwinnett, and Dekalb counties have not reported all of the early voting numbers.  The update notes that four other large counties, Chatham, Henry, Douglas and Clark have reported zero votes have come in via mail.  Not a single person in Savannah voted via mail? Not likely.

Abrams’ team is also side-eyeing[1] the 20,000 absentee ballots in Gwinnett and an unknown amount of absentee, provisional, and paper ballots that were cast throughout Georgia that are yet to be counted.  The Abrams update said, “Together, the seven counties are expected to return a minimum of 77,000 ballots.”  As some of the counties with outstanding votes are heavily democratic it is not unreasonable to think that Abrams could get within striking range of a run-off.   Just in case, Abrams is requesting that voters check their provisional ballots to make sure every single vote is counted.

Here is hoping that Kemp does not want the validity of his election to be doubted forever. If Kemp is as secure in his victory as his campaign manager conveys, then an accurate count and, if necessary, a run-off will not be a problem.

 

 

 

[1] A facial expression expressing one’s criticism, disapproval, animosity, or scorn of varying levels of intensity towards another person. Defined by one person looking at the other out of the corner of their eye(s) with a scowl, as their head is turned in a different direction.  https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=side%20eye

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BenevolusDave Bearse Recent comment authors
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Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

He could still resign…..

Benevolus
Benevolus

Abrams has been getting about 68% of the votes coming in late. If that were to continue, we would have to process an additional 74,000 votes to get Kemp below 50%. But if the votes still not reported skew more heavily towards Abrams, that number could be reduced quite a bit. At 80% that number would be more like 45,000-50,000 total additional votes to count.

(All very speculative because the numbers are variables we don’t know; total votes, and how they will split.)