Kemp, Shafer Show Slight Leads in Latest AJC/WSB/UGA Poll

In polls released this afternoon via The AJC, a poll conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs for the Cox Media Group entities shows that races for both Governor and Lt Governor are neck and neck, with Brian Kemp leading Casey Cagle by 3% for Governor, and David Shafer leading Geoff Duncan by 4% in the race for LG. Both polls have a margin of error of 3.5%, so officially “too close to call”.

For Governor:

Kemp  44

Cagle  41

For Lt Governor:

Shafer  35.4

Duncan  31.4

The runoff for each race is on July 24th, with early voting currently underway.  Notably, no candidate in either race is polling above 50%, but an amazing third of “likely Republican runoff voters” polled are undecided in the Lt. Governor’s race at this point.  Insert obligatory punditry of “it’s all about turnout” here.

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Dave Bearsegt7348bPragmatic ProgressiveJack FitzScottNAtlanta Recent comment authors
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Indypendant
Indypendant

Nobody asked me.

I’m voting for Kagle.

Abrams for Governor.

Gregs
Gregs

Why am I not surprised that Kemp has a slight lead over Cagle? After all Cagle himself says the craziest candidate will win and Kemp has proven almost as crazy as Micheal Williams.

Benevolus
Benevolus

I’m surprised.
It is going to be so weird, if Kemp wins, watching him completely change his act to suit the GE audience.

Noway2016
Noway2016

He won’t change anything. And he’ll still beat Stacey.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

“When I said I’d drive the Mexicans home myself, I meant that I’d drive them to their houses, so that I could verify their addresses here in the U.S.”

Caroline
Caroline

That ad was cringeworthy.

Gregs
Gregs

But…first they have to mow my lawn and trim my hedges.

Will Durant
Will Durant

“Of Kemp’s supporters, roughly 15 percent said the main reason they’re backing him is because they see him as more trustworthy. About one-third say they’re voting for him because he shares their values.” It appears the other half just believe in giving the mentally challenged a guvmint job.

Is Cox now too cheap to hire Landmark? Cross tabs? Live calls? Or is this just one of those GOTV things?

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

The Sunday AJC included hilarious quotes from people in both camps. A 62 year old guy disparaged them both as career politicians, then said he was supporting Cagle because he had more experience. Or the 80 year old lady that stated that Governor’s had no say at the national level, but she was supporting Kemp because he would better lead people to support Trump.

Will Durant
Will Durant

I’ve now received a mailer from every Republican runoff candidate. 4 out of the 6 tried to out Trump the others. Not that I really blame them as President Trump still has a +7 approval rating in Georgia though this is down from a +18 on inauguration day. I will be voting for the 2 that did not mention the man just to be a contrarian. I’m not sure that makes me any better than an uninformed voter but it will make me feel a little better anyway.

MattMD_actual
MattMD_actual

I saw an ad of his where he brands himself as a “Trump Conservative”.

What an efffing tool.

I take back every suspicion I had about Deal being corrupt compared to the clowns who are vying to replace him.

ScottNAtlanta
ScottNAtlanta

Sorta makes you wonder when Norway is the only one who supports the eventual R nominee in the comments

Noway2016
Noway2016

Oh, I won’t be the only one. Check back after the election and see an “R” after the name of your new guv!

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I say this with all sincerity, I’d prefer Brian Kemp to Casey Cagle.

Call it a gut feeling, but 4 years of an incompetent boob is preferable than having a corrupt weasel like Cagle screwing us all over for his own financial gain.

MattMD_actual
MattMD_actual

Do you think Abrams has a chance to win over some wannabe hick like Kemp? I will stipulate this is a Hitler/Stalin argument counselor but there is so way I would support Kemp. He strikes me as a moron who needs the tit of the government to survive. Cagle is pretty bad and likely more craven but he just doesn’t rub me like Kemp does. I wish Abrams would have stayed out of the Stone Mountain debate because that does not help with the poor hick vote even if her policies would actually help them. If it looks close, I… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I don’t think there’s a difference in Abrams’ chances against Cagle and her chances against Kemp. Both will have the support of Republican base voters. Neither is some grassroots darling that is going to drive base turnout above what it would already be. At the same time, neither is (as far as we know) a child molesting former grand wizard with a closet full of women’s clothing that will depress base turnout or create a block of anti-Kemp/Cagle Republicans like we saw in Alabama. Now, if the runoff gets particularly nasty, I guess it’s possible Kemp voters stay home and… Read more »

Jack Fitz
Jack Fitz

How much would the GOP be crapping themselves if the other Stacey had won. I’m with Drew in that I think Kemp will at least be rightsized when he eventually wins. Cagle’s been deplorable since he was trying to build a team back in ’10 so I’d be fine to see him lose this one and have to fly coach the rest of his life. Guy just reeks of opportunism and everyone knows it. Here’s to hoping Kemp pulls a Deal and totally outperforms himself.

Pragmatic Progressive
Pragmatic Progressive

Well Evans was rejected by 75 percent of the Democratic electorate, so why would the GOP be crapping their pants? She would have ran a dull campaign with no GOTV apparatus and a depressed base of black and millenial voters. Abrams is by far the candidate Republicans should have been fearing from the beginning.

Caroline
Caroline

She would have had the same GOTV apparatus had she won. The DNC would have come in to help her like they did Doug Jones in Alabama and like they are helping Abrams now. Maybe in 2018 Millenials will show up to vote but that has not been their history.

gt7348b
gt7348b

I kind of agree with this about Cagle knowing the system and Kemp not being the brightest crayon in the box, but given this is Georgia, do you want an incompetent as governor who won’t put a check on crazies (looking at McKoon) or someone in the mold of the current gov who at least doesn’t drive away business because of stupid social issues?

Will Durant
Will Durant

Cagle has the potential for some stupid actions. Kemp is a certainty.