Morning Reads for Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Good morning! The Iowa Caucuses are over, and it’s Groundhog Day. Watch out for that first step – it’s a doozy!

Did your neighborhood groundhog see its shadow? Did your candidate survive the caucus (cue the sad trombones for Huckabee and O’Malley)? Let us know in the comments!

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CharlieJohn KonopSaltycrackerNoway2016Dave Bearse Recent comment authors
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Indypendant
Indypendant

Eight years of screaming, “BIRTH CERTIFICATE” and Iowa Republicans support a guy born in Canada.

I hate America.

Will Kremer
Will Kremer

Before I see people talk about Iowa, I want to throw in my 2¢. Victory comes in numerous forms. If we were simply counting delegates, then Cruz is the only winner. Fortunately for the other candidates, more is at stake than the delegates. Iowa is the first chance to show viability. Scott Walker is a great example: He was polling in the mid to high twenties before falling to the single digits only to drop out. He was not viable despite a commanding lead early in the game. Cruz, Trump, Rubio, and to an extent Carson showed they are viable… Read more »

Davo65
Davo65

Trump doesn’t come in first place and this means he’s done for? You guys are just spinning your own hopes now. If Trump does take a backseat for a couple months it will only put the spot-light on Rubio and Cruz…something that hasn’t really happened yet. Then he’ll be back in all his insane, pandering glory…the albatross around the neck of the GOP.

Will Kremer
Will Kremer

Please direct me to where I said Trump is finished. His entire campaign was based on “I’m a winner, so you should vote for me. Look at the polls!” The real numbers show he’s in second place. The aura surrounding him is pierced by the sharp tip of reality. Does this mean Trump’s candidacy is over? Far from it. He’ll stick around, but how much longer can a campaign without substance survive without bombastic rhetoric?

Davo65
Davo65

What you say would be true…if this wasn’t 2016. At what point has this election cycle looked anything at all like previous ones? My take on it is that the conventional wisdom the pols in general are spinning is just wrong. If there was any doubt, how is it that Trump is such a force to begin with…anytime, anyone else would have been drummed out a long time ago.

Pete Gibbons
Pete Gibbons

Iowon’t

Raleigh
Raleigh

The Iowa Caucus is finally in the books and the poll front runner Punxsutawney Phil has been upset by Buckeye Chuck of Marion Ohio. Georgia’s General Beauregard Lee who will now take over as the establishment candidate finished a close 3rd to Punxsutawney Phil. Punxsutawney Phil was magnanimous in his concession speech to his supporters last night but all week he had been calling his opponents Fat, Lazy, and, Weak. The Iowa polls had been predicting an easy win for Punxsutawney Phil for 4 weeks but Buckeye Chuck’s ground game proven to be the deciding factor in the race getting… Read more »

davidmac
davidmac

Any chance that the Assembly will consider action/funding for the DPH to combat Zika? It *will* be a problem this summer/fall; Aedes aegypti (vector species) is prevalent throughout Georgia.

gcp
gcp

Surprise Surprise The Cruz ground game beat the ” high energy” entertainer. And yes the Cruz strategy could work in other states such as Georgia. Rubio is a generational candidate who has strong appeal to millennials and gen-xers. As the process moves forward the “kid” issue will fade and he will gain support from older folks. The Rubio campaign has the best growth potential. Trumpet has limited or no growth potential so he must insure his current supporters appear at the polls. We now know it’s a three man race. Obnoxious Carson has enough publicity. Time for him to return… Read more »

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

The GaGOP awarding convention delegates in proportion to primary vote seems simple enough, but there are plenty of wrinkles: http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_10.html It’s no wonder the GOP establishment is desperate that coalescing around one of the establishment candidates begin in earnest soon. Georgia’s (and perhaps other SEC primary states) proportionality rules have the potential to effectively knock out the establishment candidates that haven’t developed daylight between themselves and the pack. I think Trump’s floor of support will have him well in the hunt if not leading the pack well into March. Lesser establishment candidates hanging around or remaining and the ballot have… Read more »

davidmac
davidmac

@ Dave Bearse:

Basically, the third-place candidate (and below) in each CD gets to hear (in the immortal words of Gene Wilder/Willy Wonka):

“You get nothing! You lose! Good DAY Sir!”

Statewide, the floor is 20%. If only one candidate crosses that threshold, they get all of the 34 statewide delegates. If two or more, they share proportionally.

Though one thing that’s critically missing is the per-CD allocation of Republican support – would rural CD’s split Trump/Cruz, while more urban would split Rubio/Cruz or Rubio/Trump? Hard to say for now.

Noway2016
Noway2016

The worst performance of either party was Hillary. She struggled mightily against Bernie, even having to win a single delegate with a pathetic coin toss. Bernie wins this huge in spirit and momentum. Astonishing! He crushes her in New Hampshire next week and who knows, he may take the Socialist message to the 99%ers in SC. Everybody just lovesssssssssssss the promises of free stuff. Rubio comes out with huge momentum after knocking out of the park against expectations in Iowa. Off the top of my head, I don’t know his recent numbers are in NH but expect them to rise… Read more »

gcp
gcp

I don’t see Burnie going anywhere after SEC primary. The black democrat vote is critical in the south. Hilly and Billy have a long history with black voters and Burnie does not. He will hang around for a while because he likes the publicity and he does have a constituency but he won’t be a serious threat.

Agree on Christie and Kasich may also pull a strong fourth in NH, but neither (particularly Kasich) have a post NH plan.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

Amtrak: got the App, love the ride (in NY/DC corridor). Wanted to take some high schoolers, ATL to DC. But….Going Southwest Air for a lot less money.
Want to go on the cheap: mega bus is ready.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

And this week’s World Health Organization drive:

Must be 18 to go to a movie with smoking in it…….tobacco I guess,

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/01/movies-depicting-smoking-should-be-given-adult-rating-world-health-organization.html

John Konop
John Konop

Did Hillary cheat to win? WOW!!!!!BTW the chances of winning 6 coin tosses in a row are less than 2 percent….

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/2/1478596/-Don-t-call-it-a-win-Six-coin-tosses-and-fuzzy-math-determined-Iowa-vote-lead

Charlie
Charlie

That’s some pretty good luck. Maybe she should try some long shot investing…like in cattle futures or something.

John Konop
John Konop

Lol !!…..that was a very funny comment ?

davidmac
davidmac

So there’s a huge amount of Sturm und Drang about the coin flips. Keep in mind, they were to determine precinct delegate allocation to the county conventions – not delegates to the DNC, nor delegates to the IA State convention. So impact is very small – about 5 in 1000. In addition, there’s still a potential for change in the 23-21 allocation to the DNC based on whatever machinations occur at the county and state conventions. As a reminder, in 2012, Romney was announced as the “winner” of Iowa, upon later count Santorum was found to have earned more precinct… Read more »