A poll released this morning by FOX5/Opinion Savvy shows exactly what everyone expected: A bloodbath among the candidates for third place. Fox5/Opinion Savvy polled 437 likely voters with a MOE of 4.6%. Election Day is next Tuesday (4 days away!) so let’s take a moment to dissect this poll.
The poll has Democrat Jon Ossoff in the lead with 41.5% of the vote followed by Republican Karen Handel at 21.2%. If this holds true, then next Wednesday our conversation will be Ossoff vs Handel. The real bloodbath isn’t occurring for first or second place, but for third place between Senator Judson Hill, Trump’s Ally Bob Gray, and Former Senator Dan Moody. They are polling at 11.3%, 10.6%, and 9.4% respectively.
An important result to keep in mind as we inch towards next Tuesday is Donald Trump’s approval rating in the district. Jon Ossoff is becoming nationally known as the face of Trump resistance while Bob Gray is campaigning as Trump’s “willing ally.” Karen Handel is straddling the line between Trumpian Republican and conventional Republican. LeVell, another candidate touting his Trump credentials polled at 0%.
Of the 437 respondents, 53.7% approve of Trump’s job performance and 45.2% disapprove with 1.1% unsure.
In head-to-head match ups, Jon Ossoff beat Karen Handel, Bob Gray, and Judson Hill. Dan Moody is the only Republican that would beat Ossoff at this moment in time. The breakdowns are as follow:
|Handel: 42.1%||Gray: 44.9%||Hill: 44.4%||Moody: 47.6%|
|Ossoff: 44.1%||Ossoff: 46.3%||Ossoff: 46.6%||Ossoff: 45.3%|
One aspect that will play a huge factor in determining third place is turnout. Before you slaughter me with sarcastic comments, turnout in Cobb will only benefit Judson Hill. In the survey, Cobb contained 29% of the respondents, Fulton boasted 48.1%, and DeKalb had 22.9%. North Fulton is Bob Gray and Karen Handel’s stomping ground. A strong turnout in North Fulton could put Bob Gray into third place.
I think it’s safe to assume that we’ll see Karen Handel and Jon Ossoff in the runoff, but I have a strong track record of being wrong. I guess we’ll see.
You can find everything in the PDF: