GA-06: Handel and Ossoff are still in the lead
In a poll by MoveOn.org surveying 350 likely Special Election voters, Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel are still the candidates of choice. According to the Atlanta Business Chronicle, Ossoff received 40% of the support garnered, while none of the other four Democrats scored more than 1%. Handel, on the other hand, came in with 18% with the other 10 Republican candidates coming in at 8% or below.
The poll also showed that if the election goes to a runoff in June, as expected, Ossoff and Handel are currently tied at 45 percent. The survey’s margin or error was plus-or-minus 5.2 percent.
Ossoff’s biggest challenge will be to win the race outright this month by capturing more than 50 percent of the vote. Otherwise, he likely would have to compete one-on-one in the runoff against a GOP opponent in the heavily Republican district, which takes in East Cobb, North Fulton and North DeKalb counties.
19% of those polled were undecided.
While poll numbers look pretty much the same no matter who does the polling, the interesting part of the article was at the end.
Meanwhile, Handel’s campaign got an early jump releasing her campaign fund-raising totals, which are not due to be filed until Thursday. She has raised more than $463,000 in fewer than seven weeks and has more than $183,000 in cash on hand.
Handel reported 831 donors, nearly 90 percent of whom live in Georgia.
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Theresa Garcia Robertson
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It’s a PUSH POLL!!
https://front.moveon.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LRP.MoveOn.PublicMemo.f.033117.pdf
Doesn’t appear to be message testing or biased question wording in their memo here, but YMMV. Seems to line up well with what we’re seeing from other pollsters in the district, though as always it’s hard to poll a special and model turnout (hence the high MOE). Re: GS Strategies, Nothing wrong with polling to test your message, but your numbers are also not a very credible sign of what’s happening on the ground when you do. If they believed their results that he was sinking, the NRCC wouldn’t have been rushing in another $2 million yesterday. In all, it’s in line with the new Survey USA poll dropped today by WXIA:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=beb816c4-e822-406e-8729-039e99afcfe0
Topline: Ossoff 43 Handel 15 Grey 14 Moody 7 Undecided: 7 Other Candidates: 15 ; Didn’t bother polling hypothetical runoffs, issues, or fav/unfav.
But yeah, feel comfy with those GS Strategies numbers from yesterday.
You realize the only way he wins is to get 50 now. He will get destroyed in the runoff. He’s polling right where every democrat polls in the 6th. Meaning he’s going to lose. Be happy with this poll if you want. It shows 60% of people choosing someone other than Ossoff. That’s not good for him.
I don’t know where you and Ed get the idea that Dems performing in the low to mid-40s is standard for the 6th. Until last year, no Dem POTUS candidate did better than 40% in the 6th. Obama got 37.5% in the district in 2012. Nobody who ran against Price did better than 35%. Nobody who ran against Isakson did better than 20%. I don’t have the district by district breakdowns for Nunn/Carter but given Purdue/Deal ran a good 10 points better in Cobb and Fulton than Trump, I’d suspect they also didn’t break 40 in the district.
Even if he doesn’t win (and my gut says he comes close but loses) then it’s still a telling sign. One big reason people are looking at the 6th is that there are a lot of districts like it: Traditionally GOP Sunbelt Suburban Districts where GOP Congressmen ran way ahead of Trump. The question people have is whether or not those districts are going to start reflecting their Presidential spread. If Osoff is running close to HRC’s number in the district (46-47%), then that’s a sign that a lot of once safe GOP seats aren’t in the Trump era, even as we’re supposed to be in the honeymoon phase. He comes close, people like Pete Sessions start looking over their shoulders. And the runoff hypo, which has him on 45% vs. Handel or Grey, is getting him awfully close to there.
538’s Harry Enten (https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/)is tweeting about the Survey USA Poll:
This is not good enough for a round one win for Ossoff. Of course, turnout is name of game in a special. It does however suggest a real shot for Ossoff to win in second round, if the turnout really is Clinton 49 to Trump 45 among voters. Interesting trend maybe… Total GOP vote in first round over last four GA-6 polls, 48%, 52%, 40%, 46%. Total Dem vote: 44%, 42%, 42%, 46%. In the two earlier polls, total GOP vote held a lead of 4 & 10 points over total Dem vote. Over last two polls has been Dem +2 & a tie. One final note from SUSA poll: among those who registered a choice & said they voted, Ossoff 58%, GOP 42%. Non-early: Ossoff 44%, GOP 51%. If that’s right (the sample size is small), it suggests people who are voting early are far more favorable to Ossoff than those who haven’t. (11% in the poll. 89% said they haven’t.)
His bet: Runoff, but Tossup in a Runoff.
I really don’t know why you bring Senator Isakson into this discussion. There is this thing called redistricting. Johnny never represented the 6th as drawn. So, apples to oranges. Also, Tom Price consistently over preformed. The 6th is a 60/40 district. Ossoff will be 40 maybe 43 on April 18th then get destroyed in the runoff. And what will we have learned from this? That the 6th is a 60/40 district. Ossoff will decide to run again because he did so well in your eyes and will get destroyed by Karen Handel in 2018.
David C, you are correct that neither Carter nor Nunn broke 40% in the 6th CD in 2014—Nunn got just 38% there (the best performance in the district of any statewide Democratic candidate that year) and Carter took just 36% in the district. Obama won 40% in the district in 2008 but dropped to 37% in 2012. Democrats performing in the low to mid 40s in the 6th certainly is not the norm or standard for this district. Barksdale got just 37% in the district against Isakson last November.
In a runoff, it isn’t likely Ossoff will win the Cobb portion of the district, but should be able to win the DeKalb portion, which Clinton easily won last year. That makes Fulton (easily the largest voting county in the district) the main battle in the runoff—and the Fulton part of the 6th CD only narrowly backed Trump over Clinton. According to data from the dailykos website (swing state project), Trump won the Cobb portion of CD 6 by about 15,000 votes, lost the DeKalb portion by about 14,000 and won the Fulton portion by about 4,000, for an overall winning margin in the district of only about 5,000 votes. In contrast, Romney in 2012 won the district by about 72,000 votes.
As a DeKalb GA-6 resident, I agree with Scott below concerning enthusiasm. I think Ossoff’s relative margin of victory in DeKalb will significantly exceed Clinton’s, and DeKalb turnout will be significantly higher than that typical of a special election. Whether those two things exceed Fulton and Cobb Republicans that voted for Clinton but again stick with the GOP for GA-6 remains to be seen.
Helps that they opened additional early voting locations for Dekalb.
Moody leaked an internal poll today (conducted by Meeting Street Research, 400 respondents, live interview, all done Apr. 4). Keep your grains of salt for all internal leaked polls handy , of course: https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/849725200916783104
Osoff: 43%
Handel: 12%
Moody: 12%
Hill: 10%
Grey: 8%
Not Sure / Undecided: 9%
Nobody else topped 1%
Generic Ballot:
Rep: 48%
Dem: 47%
Trend moving in Dem favor though: On 2/17 was R 47 D 40, on 3/17 it was R 47, D 42. Now, virtual tie.
Polling is stagnant but early voting has already started, it’s a wait and see time. I don’t think the polls right now are a good indicator of what a runoff may be like, especially not in these turbulent times. It is not hard to imagine the current administration doing something that would hurt a republic candidate right now
I have to say that the energy and number of volunteers for Ossoff is beyond anything I have ever seen in a special election. I am really thinking he can win it outright on the 18th.
The Osama ad is one that you run in desperation because nothing else sticks, but my guess is no one who was responsible for that ad was aware of the Chambliss/Cleland ad. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me