Sabato Changes #GA6 From Likely R to Toss-Up

Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved the GA-6 special election from Likely R to Toss-Up. Kyle Kondik, the Managing Editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, shared some reasons via Twitter for making the change:

  • “The main Dem candidate, Jon Ossoff, has raised a ton of money and seems assured, at the very least, of making a runoff”
  • “There is an outside chance he wins outright on April 18, as Nate Cohn noted” for The New York Times
  • “A main outside R group (CLF) was already engaged, and now it appears the NRCC is getting in too. At very least, Rs are concerned”

Kondik notes that “there’s sufficient uncertainty heading into first round that we’re calling it a Toss-up, Will reevaluate after, assuming runoff.”

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ScottNAtlanta
ScottNAtlanta

I just saw this on The Crystal Ball. Thats pretty shocking going from likely republican to toss up. Early voting has also been pretty robust for registered democrats. More telling is the number of voters not affiliated with a party (means they didnt vote in a primary) is fairly large. One could assume those are not republican votes for the most part

The Eiger
The Eiger

I think Ossoff ends up getting what he’s been polling. Maybe a point or two more. So he goes into the runoff with 42% then loses by 5-10 in June. I would be worried if the numbers coming out of DeKalb were ahead of Cobb. They aren’t. Both women voters and African Americans are preforming on par with where they usually are. Not above. To win outright Ossoff will need to turnout more women, minorities and DeKalb folks to have a chance. Right now he isn’t doing that. I will say I was wrong in my early prediction that it… Read more »

ScottNAtlanta
ScottNAtlanta

The reason you are not seeing the numbers in Dekalb is because there is one early polling location on Memorial Dr that isnt even in the district (why this is…I do not know) so early numbers in Dekalb are going to be low.
Another thing is that early voting by republican voters (as defined as those that voted in the republican primary) are way down.

The Eiger
The Eiger

The DeKalb numbers are why I’m not worried at the moment. If they pass Cobb County then there’s real trouble. After this weekend where we have the first weekend of voting we will have a better sense.

Ellynn
Ellynn

I remember when a 27 year old former congressional aide to Senators Kasten and Brownback ran for a house seat… I wonder what ever happened to him? Oh yah… He’s the current Speaker of said House. (BTW -he beat out a 29 year old in the primary)

Bull Moose
Bull Moose

It’s really surprising to me how divisive this 6th District race has become and honestly, I don’t think it had to be that way. There are two candidates who pushed this race there – Dan Moody and Bob Gray. Honestly, a seventy something year old former State Senator who resigned from DOT had no business running for Congress. He resigned from DOT, as he stated, to spend more time with his grandchildren and because of a consulting gig in Florida. I’m not sure why he’s running other than the fact that he apparently has money to burn in his pocket.… Read more »