March 30, 2017 3:40 PM
Sabato Changes #GA6 From Likely R to Toss-Up
House rating change: GA-6 Special goes from Likely R to Toss-up. See @kkondik timeline for our reasoning
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) March 30, 2017
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved the GA-6 special election from Likely R to Toss-Up. Kyle Kondik, the Managing Editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, shared some reasons via Twitter for making the change:
- “The main Dem candidate, Jon Ossoff, has raised a ton of money and seems assured, at the very least, of making a runoff”
- “There is an outside chance he wins outright on April 18, as Nate Cohn noted” for The New York Times
- “A main outside R group (CLF) was already engaged, and now it appears the NRCC is getting in too. At very least, Rs are concerned”
Kondik notes that “there’s sufficient uncertainty heading into first round that we’re calling it a Toss-up, Will reevaluate after, assuming runoff.”
About Author
lawtonsack
Lawton is a graduate of Georgia Southern University (the GSU) with a degree in Information Technology. He has held numerous positions within the Georgia Republican Party throughout the years.
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I just saw this on The Crystal Ball. Thats pretty shocking going from likely republican to toss up. Early voting has also been pretty robust for registered democrats. More telling is the number of voters not affiliated with a party (means they didnt vote in a primary) is fairly large. One could assume those are not republican votes for the most part
I think Ossoff ends up getting what he’s been polling. Maybe a point or two more. So he goes into the runoff with 42% then loses by 5-10 in June. I would be worried if the numbers coming out of DeKalb were ahead of Cobb. They aren’t. Both women voters and African Americans are preforming on par with where they usually are. Not above. To win outright Ossoff will need to turnout more women, minorities and DeKalb folks to have a chance. Right now he isn’t doing that.
I will say I was wrong in my early prediction that it would be two republicans in the runoff. I honestly did not see 11 republicans in the race and the democrats coalescing around a 29 year congressional staffer.
The reason you are not seeing the numbers in Dekalb is because there is one early polling location on Memorial Dr that isnt even in the district (why this is…I do not know) so early numbers in Dekalb are going to be low.
Another thing is that early voting by republican voters (as defined as those that voted in the republican primary) are way down.
The DeKalb numbers are why I’m not worried at the moment. If they pass Cobb County then there’s real trouble. After this weekend where we have the first weekend of voting we will have a better sense.
I remember when a 27 year old former congressional aide to Senators Kasten and Brownback ran for a house seat… I wonder what ever happened to him? Oh yah… He’s the current Speaker of said House. (BTW -he beat out a 29 year old in the primary)
It’s really surprising to me how divisive this 6th District race has become and honestly, I don’t think it had to be that way.
There are two candidates who pushed this race there – Dan Moody and Bob Gray.
Honestly, a seventy something year old former State Senator who resigned from DOT had no business running for Congress. He resigned from DOT, as he stated, to spend more time with his grandchildren and because of a consulting gig in Florida. I’m not sure why he’s running other than the fact that he apparently has money to burn in his pocket. Is he going to resign from Congress because he doesn’t get his way? And having worked in the thick of Congress, strong silent types in the House generally don’t get much done. That’s a style that does well in the Senate, but not the House where it’s usually the squeaky wheel that get’s the oil.
Then there’s Bob Gray. Gray’s trying to make the leap from City Council to Congress and essentially also funding his own campaign. While not quite as negative, he’s been very aggressive in his campaign. They’ve packaged Gray up to be all things to everyone. Heck, the guy went from a Nope on Trump to wanting to be the man’s best friend. For a Maserati driving millionaire, I’m sure he could care less what it takes to win. This guy comes off as arrogant and it’s only a matter of time before he makes his own unforced errors.
I think some elements of the media are holding Karen Handel to a different standard than say Johnny Isakson was when he ran for this seat, or really any other candidate who has run before and come up short. Like Isakson, Karen ran for Governor and the US Senate and lost. Like Isakson, Karen has deep roots in this district. As a successful County Commission Chairman and Secretary of State, like Isakson, Karen has a record of accomplishments. Desire, determination, and willingness to are qualities that should be admired, not scoffed at.
I think Karen Handel will do the best job, not just because she’s my friend, or I agree with her on 100% of the issues (which I obviously don’t), but because of her life experience, her drive to actually get things done and make a difference in the positions in which she is elected to. Anyone that knows Karen, knows that she isn’t going to just keep a seat warm, she’s going to actually work to implement the changes that she believes that need to be made. That proven record, to me, is worthy of promotion to the next level of service.
Now as to Ossoff, what an interesting phenomenon. I think whatever Congressional race was going to be the first one out of the gate after Trump had the potential to feature an energized Democratic candidate with money coming from every activist out there. Thus, I don’t think there’s really anything unique about Ossoff other than this being the first race. Ossoff’s trying to send a message against Trump and that’s his unifying message to local Democrat voters, activists, and fundraisers. Other than that, he’s pretty much a typical carbon copy Democrat, maybe more so because he will owe these liberal interests groups his vote if he wins.
Anyway, at least the 6th District has ensured that several dozen GA political staffers were employed during an otherwise dead time of year. This gives them all practice and experience for the coming statewide races.