A GOP Takeover In Fulton County?
UPDATE:: Bernie Tokarz contacted me to say: “I am not running for Fulton County Chair.” So he’s out.
SECOND UPDATE:: An alert reader has pointed out that the last Republican to sit in the Chairman’s chair was Karen Handel, who took a whopping 58% of the vote in a 4-way race in a special election to replace Mike Kenn in 2003. (I looked it up. The reader is right.)
For an off year that’s supposed to be boring, 2017 is looking to become very interesting politically for Fulton County. In addition to the 18-candidate special election for the 6th Congressional District on the north end of the county, there’s an upcoming special election to fill a vacancy on the Roswell City Council; Roswell Mayor Jere Wood may finally be term-limited; Alpharetta Mayor David Belle Isle is said to be considering a state office; there are 70-some people seeking positions with the City of South Fulton and County Chairman John Eaves decision to run for Mayor of Atlanta will create an open seat and possibly a chance at Republican majority on the Fulton Board.
Robb Pitts is already running for Chairman, and Commissioner Marvin Arrington Jr., may be considering it as well. Union City Mayor Vince Williams can’t be ruled out. By rights, it’s a Democrat’s seat and the odds of a Republican winning a countywide office are extremely long during regularly scheduled elections. Three Republicans on the commission (Bob Ellis, Liz Hausman and Lee Morris) all hail from points north of Wieuca Road, and the County hasn’t voted for a Republican President since Nixon visited China. But a special election could throw all those rules into a cocked hat.
For reasons beyond the scope of political science, Democrats don’t vote in runoffs or special elections with the same enthusiasm as Republicans. Democrats, especially African American Democrats, show up if they’re interested, but Republicans vote like it’s a patriotic duty.
You hear that turnout matters, and here’s an example of why: Turnout in the Atlanta Mayor’s race among black voters in November 2009 was around 27%, more than 10% lower than white voter turnout. (That black-to-white ratio stayed roughly the same for the squeaky-close runoff.) But even though the percentage of black turnout was lower, the raw number of black voters was sufficient. Fulton County is today about 5% whiter than it was 8 years ago, a statistic that accretes a slight advantage to Republicans.
Names being bandied as possible Republican candidates for Chairman include former candidate and transportation activist Bernie Tokarz, current Atlanta City Council candidate Cory Ruth, and strongest of, Sandy Springs City Councilman Gabriel Sterling. The Fulton County Republican party is likely to adopt a ‘Highlander’ plan, where there can be only one –though county parties are notoriously weak at enforcing such ukases.
But a single Republican choice among a field that will undoubtedly offer more than one Democrat –and thereby spilt the traditional black bloc of Democrat votes- could offer Fulton Republicans a chance to steal a chair.
About Author
Mike Hassinger
Add a Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.
I’d say dollars to donuts Republicans win the race. The history suggests they can do it and I also am not sure if I used that idiom correctly.
Yes, as Mike pointed out, Fulton hasn’t voted GOP for president since the Nixon visit to China—of course a reference to the 1972 Nixon landslide over George McGovern—the only time all 159 counties in the state went GOP for president, something none of us will ever see again. Even while winning statewide easily, neither Reagan (1984) or Bush Sr. (1988) could come within 10 points of winning Fulton.
In last year’s general election, white turnout in Fulton exceeded black turnout by about 36,000, according to Sec of State. Blacks accounted for 37% of the total turnout in the county, whites 46%, Asians 3%, Hispanics 2% and “others” 13%—even though there is about parity between registered blacks and whites in the county.
Of course, even if a Republican were to win the Eaves seat this year, he or she would face the daunting task of winning re-election in 2018, when governor and other statewide offices are up–and statewide GOP candidates have a hard time breaking 40% in Fulton. (The last time Fulton voted Republican for governor, well, LBJ and Harry Truman were still alive, and the Kent State shootings dominated the news. Can you say, 1970?
“Yes, as Mike pointed out, Fulton hasn’t voted GOP for president since the Nixon visit to China—of course a reference to the 1972 Nixon landslide over George McGovern—the only time all 159 counties in the state went GOP for president, something none of us will ever see again. Even while winning statewide easily, neither Reagan (1984) or Bush Sr. (1988) could come within 10 points of winning Fulton.”
What’s nuts is that in ’76, Georgia went from every county in the state going GOP to every county going Dem over the course of one cycle. That’s happened a handful of times in other states, but only ones like Delaware or Hawaii that have a handful of counties, not one hundred fifty nine.
What’s curious is if the turnout assumptions hold that well. It’s early days, but in last week’s DE State Senate election, you saw massive turnout for a mid-February special. Unless Dem turnout is putrid, that’s not enough to flip the county. Like you point out, whites were 46% of the Fulton electorate, but the GOP only got 27% of the vote. Over 40% of the whites went elsewhere. Some of those are probably Tom Price/Isakson Republicans who would stay in the fold, but you lose even a few and you’re really up against it numbers wise, especially if a special election is on the same day as the ATL Mayoral race (which would drive turnout up in the city relative to North Fulton).
PS: On the Georgia Gov question, I would have guessed Maddox, if only because I thought Jimmy had beat Hal Suit in a landslide, but you’re right. Forget Tricky Dick, that’s a map you’ll never see again: GOP winning Fulton, Dekalb, Clayton, Cobb, Athens, and one county in the North Georgia Mountains. That’s it.
Yes, David C., you are right about the map we will never see again…in 1970, DeKalb was actually Carter’s worst county in percentage (35%), something that would surely be incredulous today in a county where Trump got just 16% last fall. Back then, DeKalb was heavily white and had come off its fastest growth (in raw numbers) in any decade in its history; 285 had just been completed and there was still room to grow beyond there. Fulton also voted against Carter…doubtless Buckehad and Sandy Springs Republicans in those days were more comfortable with Hal Suit than a good ol boy peanut farmer from southwest Georgia…interestingly, Carter lost Buckhead and Sandy Springs to Ford in the 1976 presidential election—the Episcopalian Ford a better fit than the Baptist Carter in those areas.
Handel’s 2003 win was amidst a very low turnout—around 60,000 countywide—and there was no Atlanta mayoral race to bring Democrats to the polls that year (the previous election for that having been in 2001).