January 12, 2017 12:31 PM
Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Georgia Democrats are convinced next election cycle is the one. Really.
The latest version of this line comes from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball making its first survey of the 2018 gubernatorial races around the U.S.
Georgia is lumped in with several GOP-controlled states with the following insight into how the races will stack up:
At this point, there’s no reason to believe that Democrats will truly compete in any of these states…To the extent that Democrats are eyeing these contests, they are focusing on Georgia, which is showing some gradual signs of trending toward Democrats, and Kansas, where outgoing Gov. Sam Brownback (R) is very unpopular (he won his reelection bid by less than four points in 2014, surprising many who believed he would lose).
I’ve been hearing for well over a decade that the demographics are going to tip for Georgia Democrats and they’ll finally crack the GOP grip on power. But a poor bench, expert redistricting and a lack of a seismic demographic shift means Democrats are, and likely will, be out of power for some time.
Now this isn’t to mean Democrats can’t or won’t win/make Georgia purple, but let’s finally stop thinking it will happen soon.