2018: GA Democrats to Fool Themselves into Thinking Victory is Imminent…. Again

Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Georgia Democrats are convinced next election cycle is the one. Really.

The latest version of this line comes from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball making its first survey of the 2018 gubernatorial races around the U.S.

Georgia is lumped in with several GOP-controlled states with the following insight into how the races will stack up:

At this point, there’s no reason to believe that Democrats will truly compete in any of these states…To the extent that Democrats are eyeing these contests, they are focusing on Georgia, which is showing some gradual signs of trending toward Democrats, and Kansas, where outgoing Gov. Sam Brownback (R) is very unpopular (he won his reelection bid by less than four points in 2014, surprising many who believed he would lose).

I’ve been hearing for well over a decade that the demographics are going to tip for Georgia Democrats and they’ll finally crack the GOP grip on power. But a poor bench, expert redistricting and a lack of a seismic demographic shift means Democrats are, and likely will, be out of power for some time.

Now this isn’t to mean Democrats can’t or won’t win/make Georgia purple, but let’s finally stop thinking it will happen soon.

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Lawton Sackaugusta52Andrew C. PopeMike Hassinger Recent comment authors
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Mike Hassinger
Mike Hassinger

This came up at lunch today. While the Dems bench and the redistricting are challenges, the biggest challenge y’all face is understanding that Trump voters are not die-hard Republicans and would leave us the instant they feel you’ve stopped sneering at them and started acknowledging their issues.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Fortunately redistricting won’t matter in a statewide gubernatorial race. If Democrats can saddle the would-be Republican nominee with Trump’s unpopularity, there’s an outside shot.

augusta52
augusta52

2 problems the Democrats have—(1) lack of competitiveness outside of metro Atlanta and (2), at least in the 2016 general election, low black turnout.

Lawton Sack
Lawton Sack

So, Kasim Reed for Governor?

augusta52
augusta52

No on Reed—he probably goes back to private sector, make a bundle of money and run in the next decade when demographics will certainly be better for the Democrats in Georgia.