Georgia In Play: From Likely to Lean GOP, Plus, How Will Counties Vote?

Projected Presidential vVote in Georgia.  Credit:
Projected Presidential vVote in Georgia. Credit:
Everyone is familiar with the maps that attempt to show how each state will vote in the presidential race, typically color coded red and blue, with lighter shades indicating less confidence in the prediction. Over at ShareBlue, a Democratic-leaning media company, they’ve come up with state-level maps that project how each county will vote in November.

The projections are pretty much what one would expect, with the GOP taking most of the state’s counties. Metro Atlanta Democratic strongholds of Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton and Rockdale counties show Hillary Clinton winning by more then a 10% margin. (Clayton is the highest, at 74%). Other strongholds include Athens-Clarke County, Chatham and Liberty Counties, and the so-called Black Belt stretching from Augusta to west of Albany. Counties with between a 5 and 10% Democratic margin include Baldwin, Dooley, Douglas and Early. The narrowest margins for Clinton, at less than 5%, include Baker, Chattahoochee, Henry, Mitchell, Webster, and Wilkinson.

For the Republicans, counties with between a 5 and 10% margin include metro Atlanta’s Cobb and Gwinnett, along with Brooks, Decatur, Jenkins, Lowndes, McIntosh, Taylor, and Wilkes. GOP counties on the bubble with less than a 5% margin for Donald Trump include Henry, Madison Meriwether, and Screven. ShareBlue’s overall prediction for the state is Trump +3.5%, which aligns with recent polling. But as others have noticed, the last polls of Georgia were back in September, before the debates and revelations about Donald Trump.

Which brings us to Larry Sabato’s University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. In this week’s Crystal Ball, editor Kyle Kondik moves the Peach State from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, citing close polls and the report yesterday that the Clinton campaign is considering increasing its efforts here. But, Kondik warns, “Clinton win in Arizona or Georgia would be evidence of a Clinton rout that matches or exceeds Obama‚Äôs seven-point 2008 romp.” Nationally, the Crystal Ball predicts a Hillary Clinton win, with 341 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 197. If it’s any indication of how polarized the race has become, there are no no toss up states in their ratings.

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David Caugusta52chamblee54The EigerThe Dixie Cheetomonger Recent comment authors
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The Dixie Cheetomonger
The Dixie Cheetomonger

If trump loses Georgia, it’ll be the biggest failure in state GOP leadership in recent memory.

The Eiger
The Eiger

I’m not a fan of our current state leadership, but it is pretty hard to sell a turd sandwich.


Is FUlton an intentional typo? People have been saying FU to Atlanta for years.


Some thoughts: (1) Henry County goes for Clinton, the first time since 1980 that the county has voted Democratic for president. Henry gave two-thirds of its votes for the second President Bush in 2004, but only 53% for McCain in 2008 and 51% for Romney in 2012. Two years ago, Jason Carter won the county (for governor), the first time since 1990 that the county had backed a Democrat for governor. Henry is approaching 40% black in voter registration, by the 2020 presidential election, Democrats may have a 10-point+ margin in the county, (2) Gwinnett County will be close–Obama lost… Read more »

David C
David C

(1) You’re dead right on Henry. Easiest bet on the table for a county that’s going to flip in the state. (2) Gwinnett is even closer than you’d think. Look how it’s changed since 1992/96, the last time GA was close, up to now: 1992: Bush: 81,822 Clinton: 44,253 Perot: 23,926 (54.4%-29.4%-14.6%) 1996: Dole: 96,610 Clinton: 53,819 Perot: 10,236 (59.3%-33.0%-6.3%) 2000: Bush: 121,756 Gore: 61,434 (63.7%-32.2%) 2004: Bush: 160,445 Kerry: 81,708 (65.7%-33.5%) 2008: McCain: 158,746 Obama: 129.025 (54.6%-44.3%) 2012: Romney: 159,563 Obama: 131,879 (54.0%-44.6%) So first, you can see just how much impact population growth has-the total vote has doubled… Read more »