June 24, 2016 10:03 AM
Morning Reads for Friday, June 24th!
On this date in history, the United States Government released its Roswell Incident report, claiming that the aliens people claimed to have seen were merely life-sized dummies and former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is found guilty of abusing his power and having sex with an underage prostitute, and is sentenced to seven years in prison. Also, Georgia’s John Isner won the longest match in professional tennis history. It was also the first day of the Berlin Blockade, and thus eventual Airlift, pictured above.
Your Morning (just about) Reads!
- Inside Trump’s Most Valuable Tower: Felons, Dictators and Girl Scouts (Bloomberg)
- A Lottery Lawyer Explains What You Should Do if You Hit the Jackpot (Vice)
- TV Advertising’s Surprising Strength — And Inevitable Fall (Stratechery)
- Joker in the pack: Recent attacks give a glimpse of the sort of cyber-assault that could bring the world economy to a halt. Better defences are needed (the Economist)
- The media have reached a turning point in covering Donald Trump. He may not survive it. (Washington Post)
- Are Solar Panels Just for Rich People? (Priceonomics)
- Jimmy Johns ends non-compete enforcement (a professional victory for yours truly) (WSJ)
- Meet the Wall Street Titans Who Support — and Oppose — Trump (New York)
- To the bright and the rich of Silicon Valley, Trump is a loser (Financial Times); see also Silicon Valley vs. Trump (Financial Times)
- Survey: Are You Ready for Another Millennial Survey? (Bloomberg)
- Can Hillary Clinton Turn Red States Blue? (the Atlantic)
- The Clinton Campaign Seems To Think Pennsylvania Is In The Bag (FiveThirtyEight)
- New Ron Howard-directed Beatles documentary highlights the band’s formative years (LA Times)
- The interesting thing that happened when Kansas cut taxes and California hiked them (Washington Post)
- (I’m going to deep dive on that last one in a post for next week)
About Author
Lot of topics on the Don is dead. If he can calm down, Clinton and Obama blunders may pull off a Brexit level surprise. Brexit; Britain has concerns with hundreds of thousands of immigrants from poor EU countries, the EU bringing in more refugees from around the world to move freely within the EU and the EU HQ in Brussels with more financial demands. Britain will have to redo all trade agreements. The largest importer of British goods, $60 billion, and most important ally is the U.S. Obama made a special trip in April to “warn” them that if they… Read more »
I think the more important thing is how the EU handles Article 50 negotiations in a few months. I don’t think it’s going to go well for the UK, especially if the Conservatives elevate someone like Boris Johnson to PM. If the UK goes hardline, British companies face the challenge of either 1) not selling to Europe or 2) having to make products or services that meet two separate standards (EU and UK). That is in addition to the tariff barriers that will go into place, making UK goods more expensive in the EU and hurting companies’ ability to compete… Read more »
Britain’s exports to us are close or more than their’s to Germany and France combined. It gets really ugly if Obama makes good on his threat. Stick it to the colonialists, Soros goes short, Putin rejoices……yes it will be tough when the EU demands they take some refugees and the displaced in poor EU countries,
Rather we support this major sovereign nation that make up 5% of the world GDP but it looks like Obama might want to restore trade with Cuba or Viet Nam first.
We should lead the nations in getting trade talks moving, they will follow.
Andrew,
How does any of your solutions, help solve the declining real wages? You are not getting why the workers are pissed.
Where did I use the word “solution?” I don’t have a solution for a mistake this colossal. I merely presented two very plausible outcomes. The EU is going to demand that the UK agree to the free movement of persons in any bilateral agreement (look no further than the EU’s bilateral agreemenrs with Switzerland and Norway). That means the UK’s “immigration problem” is not going to stop as a result of the Brexit unless the UK just decides it doesn’t want tariff-free access to the common market. Guys like Farage and Johnson are going to be forced to explain either… Read more »
The “immigration” issue is just symptom of the problem. Real wages are falling for the middle class, and now the workers are finger pointing, at each other, rather than focusing on the real problem.
But how does the UK taking its ball and going home help solve the “real problem?”
This is the problem with race baiters like Trump: you dupe enough rubes into blaming the “other” and don’t actually do anything that would make their lives better. I get that people are frustrated, but frustration is no reason to act like a complete moron and vote against your own economic interest.
While we’re on the subject of finger-pointing, I’d like to just come out and say that old people have really screwed up the world for us millennials.
Andrew,
If your job and or wages were outsourced to paces like China and or immigrants with limited legal rights, you would be very angry as well, As far as old people like me I agree, we have sold off the future, for short term, not very well though out strategy. Plenty of blame for both parties……
That’s why I went out and got a job that couldn’t be outsourced. I understand that people are upset, but reverting to neo-isolationism and praying for a return to the 1950s is just foolish.
Andrew,
Your view of no grey, just isolationism or globalization with slave labor/policemen of the world foreign policy is illogical at best. Live is about balance….obviously we have a problem,
What England will likely try to achieve is something akin to the original EC. Bilateral agreements with 15 nations that will somewhat achieve the four freedoms.
Short term effect on markets is negative and is an overreaction. Meanwhile, other countries are looking at a similar exit.
Some good buying opportunities if you are long term.
Has not hit bottom, simple concept buy low sell high…..
As I said for years, the globalization which pits slave wages verse middle class, has created a demand problem. The west has tried to offset this with easy credit so people could buy things with credit, and no money to ever pay it back. Now 80 percent of people in the west have little cash in the west, with a mountain of debt. Now the politicians are wondering why people are pissed, A correction is coming, the only debate is how tough it will be. As Henry Ford warned the key to a stable economy is making sure, workers make… Read more »
Yes, John, neoliberalism oversold indeed. The EU’s open borders’ free range mobs were the last straw for folks in the UK. Too much, too fast, and most of all, not assimilating. Working class Brits said a loud “Enough already!”
+ 1 freaking billion!!! Unfortunately, too little, too late. Britain and France are lost to the invading hordes forever.
You say “working class Brits,” I say “a bunch of easily spooked and kinda racist old people who would rather tank the value of their pension programs and saddle future generations with the negative consequences of another short-sighted and self-centered decision.”
potayto, potahto
Andrew,
You make fun of people who had their jobs and wages outsourced? The IMF not admits they got screwed….you think it is funny? WOW…
Nice attempt at spin, but I’m not making fun of them for having their jobs outsourced. I’m openly deriding them for thinking the “solution” to their problem is blaming Middle Easterners and Southern Europeans and punishing future generations who embraced the future instead of vainly hoping the world would revert back to the way it was in 1950.
Andrew,
Try walking in their shoes. Was Caesar Chavez and Ralph Abernathy Junior racist? Chavez ran the first minute man program at our boarders, and Abernathy helped him. Chavez testified before congress that immigration cannot be a tool to drive down wages.
…..Ironically, Chavez, the founder of the United Farm Workers union, was a foe of open borders and led a 1969 march on the California-Mexico border to oppose illegal immigration……
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/obama-establish-national-monument-cesar-chavez-foe-illegal-immigration
John, you know I love being a blank slate for you to attribute straw men to. I don’t need to “walk in their shoes,” because even a rudimentary understanding of economics leads to inexorable conclusion that leaving the EU is not going to solve the immigration problem. As detailed above, in order to obtain access to the common market, the UK is going to have to accept free movement of persons (just as Switzerland and Norway do), meaning Poles and Pakistanis are still going to move to England and take dur jerbs. Meanwhile, UK educational institutions are no longer going… Read more »
Andrew,
I agree the solutions have nothing to do with staying or leaving the EU, yet for the 75 to 80 percent with very little in the bank, and a mountain of debt, staying does not offer much….Not a straw-man argument, my point about Chavez,Abernathy, Mondale…is that they had the same opinion of the people you call racist about immigration being used a s a tool to drive down wages. When you screw with wages and jobs, you see the ugly side of people.
Being upset about lower wages isn’t racist. Scapegoating other races, ethnicities, and nationalities for “stealing” or “taking” jobs is racist. There are plenty of ways to complain about and propose solutions to wage and employment issues that don’t involve reverting to the “Mexicans are rapists and murderers” line of argument. John, you and I have had this disagreement many times, so I’m not going to spend the rest of my Saturday bludgeoning a dead horse: the decline of traditional U.S. (and U.K.) manufacturing is not a bad thing. Businesses have been chasing the lower wages since Krog Industries outsourced its… Read more »
Drew, just wanted you to know that I’ll be sleeping better tonight knowing that I have been sharing various debates with a “pseudo-intellectual.” Who knew? I feel like I’ve gotten through to actually talk to Alan Colmes, Herman, Erick, Limbaugh or Hannity. So, thank you, Andrew, thank you!
Ha! Happy to help. Those are Sally’s words. Not mine. I’m just embracing the compliment.
……… The pensioners on fixed incomes who voted to leave now have even less in the bank due to the drop in value of the pound…….
The pensions are going backwards via falling wages. Less wages less money to put toward retirement. Less wages eventually stocks fall via lack of money to buy things ie less demand. Once again you offer no solutions….and call them stupid. If you were them, you would be ok with immigrants and trade deals killing your wages? You offer is, it could get worse?
I’m a pseudo-intellectual internet commenter on a political blog dedicated to Georgia politics, not an MP. Not sure why I’m required to offer “solutions.” I’ve merely pointed out that the pro-exit politicians have used anti-intellectualism and racial invective to cover up the fact their campaign promises have no basis in the economic or political reality. As discussed, any trade deal between the UK and EU is going to provide for the free movement of persons. That means “foreigners” will still be coming to the UK to “take” jobs at lower wages. If you think the exit vote (or, to keep… Read more »
Andrew, You keep making this about Trump, and do not realize the Neo-liberal policies by both parties are killing the middle class. I debate from being an American, who could careless about tribal politics, verse you arguing from being part of a party, with blind loyalty. That is why you cannot defend your position, because deep down you know I am right. We have a demand problem with falling real wages for working middle class, and out of control personal debt. Both parties offer BS….More education/debt with no ROI on the education, spend less which drives demand further down and… Read more »
John, I frequently find myself flabbergasted at your responses. I keep reverting it back to Trump because 1) this is a blog about Georgia politics and national political events that impact Georgia and 2) the motivating forces behind the exit vote are very similar to the forces behind Trump’s campaign. I’m glad you “debate from being an American,” whatever that means (are you implying I’m not American?). I “debate” from having an academic and real-world background in trade policy and the process for negotiating and forming multilateral trade agreements, in particular. I think you continue to miss my point. Even… Read more »
Andrew, This could be a wake up call to Neo-liberals that screwing labor is not working with flooding the market with cheap slave like labor. At the end, if you kill the middle class not enough people can but to support a functional economy. I wrote this before the last collapse: Economists, politicians, and executives from both parties have promised American families that “free” trade policies like NAFTA, CAFTA, and WTO/CHINA would accomplish three things: • Increase wages • Create trade surpluses (for the US) • Reduce illegal immigration Well, their trade policies have been in effect for about 15… Read more »
Andrew, Ironic you are making similar economic arguments defending slave labor trade deals. …….Defenders of slavery argued that the sudden end to the slave economy would have had a profound and killing economic impact in the South where reliance on slave labor was the foundation of their economy. The cotton economy would collapse. The tobacco crop would dry in the fields. Rice would cease being profitable. Defenders of slavery argued that if all the slaves were freed, there would be widespread unemployment and chaos. This would lead to uprisings, bloodshed, and anarchy. They pointed to the mob’s “rule of terror”… Read more »
So I’m pro-slavery, now? Get a grip, John. I get that you’re concerned about “slave labor trade deals,” but I’m not seeing how neo-protectionist policies make things any better. If anything, labor standards have improved under free trade agreements. Further, agreements like TPP have entire sections dedicated to creating a baseline of employment standards for the entire Asia-Pacific region. Do these agreements make sure that workers in Bangladesh or Vietnam are being paid a fair wage? No, they don’t. But, they’re a step in a positive direction and folks in the international trade arena are not resting on their laurels… Read more »
Andrew, Spin it anyway you want, but the working conditions you support in places like China, India…are basically slave labor. Why have all seen the videos of the working conditions, and saw stories of people killing themselves via the working conditions. Bottom line your pro Neo-liberal policy has killed jobs and hurt wages. At the end, as the IMF warned it has created a massive spread between rich and poor creating a demand problem, which at the end will result in another correction. ……………But studies examining the impact of China’s entry to the World Trade Organization in late 2001 have… Read more »
Andrew,
Help all us understand how this is not slave labor? You call this improvement?
John, I appreciate your concern for workers in India and China. I want to see employment conditions there improve as well. Do you honestly think that working conditions in India and China have not improved in the past 50, 20, 10 years? The solution is engaging these countries, not removing ourselves from the world. There are ways to address rising income inequality that do not involve creating massive, rapid inflation through the adoption of protectionist economic policies. Your notions regarding macroeconomic policy aren’t just wrong, they’re completely devoid of any connection with reality. The fact you’re devolving what was initially… Read more »
Andrew, the pseudo-intellect way of opening up a can of hoity-toity insults to working class people just doesn’t get it in the real world. Reality is that Britain has been contributing the second highest amount of jingle to the EU, behind Germany. They have been paying in three times as much as they get in total for all the things you mentioned. So this move means they will have three times as much funding available for all that stuff, plus have money to shore up their state security. The Brits got sick of dumping their hard-earned dollars into a kitty… Read more »
So this move means they will have three times as much funding available for all that stuff, plus have money to shore up their state security. This is demonstrably false and has been widely debunked. I should know, I’m a pseudo-intellectual. They got sick of wading through mobs of illegal foreigners to reach the tube on their way to work. They aren’t “illegal foreigners,” John Rocker, they’re EU citizens who are lawfully living and, gasp, working in the UK. Also, Trump appeals to the “common man” because he speaks at a 5th grade level and avoids using big words. Seriosuly,… Read more »
Here’s the numbers: In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion. Thirteen is roughly three times four and a half. Lots of details: https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/ Don’t be disingenuous — you know I was not referring to EU citizens. Have you been to England lately? It’s pretty sad, definitely not good for tourism. And Trump always speaks so kindly of you. 🙂 I will give you this: the world truly is way more complicated than it was in… Read more »
California is loosing people and growing its income gap. The middle is fleeing due to high housing costs including high rent and higher taxes.
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/great-california-exodus-closer-look-5853.html
P.S. Georgia’s issue is not being overtaxed but a very poor direction on revenue use, selective breaks and unbalanced, mismanaged distribution.
California isn’t a great comparison for Georgia, but there are some lessons we can take from each. We’ve reached the point where economic extremists have risen to positions where they can make decisions about the direction of the economy and we are seeing the effects.
Cameron, though not an extremist himself, gave in to the elements in his party who were. If UK does enter a recession, history will not be kind.
Much of the 2015 campaign concerned EU issues which is why the BREXIT vote was held. Cameron did not favor BREXIT but he did agree to hold the referendum. I would hardly call the 52% that voted for BREXIT “extremists.”
My bad for assuming you were going to use them as a shining example – I certainly agree with your direction, but suspect your path 😎 Regulate everything or regulate nothing ends in misery.
Achieve: Pay me now or pay me later. The U.S. Can do a lot to soften the landing or bluster around until the divorce gets ugly.
Irony? The Free State of Jones in Mississippi – was filmed in Louisana because of the tax breaks.
California/Kansas comparison is apples to oranges, really. A more apt comparison would be Minnesota v. Wisconsin. Hint, Mark Dayton has been incredibly successful. Scott Walker, not so much.
Did an overnight in a hammock near Clayton last night to get on the river early this morning so I’m just reading the news. Does polling not work in Great Britain? Is there really an investment exploit in a divorce between countries? In regular divorces the only ones who profit are the lawyers, will this be similar?
No exit polling is done. Polling as of 72 hours was to remain.
Paywall reads is more like it!
Regarding Isner, although the match was five years ago, I I don’t think he’s ever gotten his legs back. 70-68 in the 5th is brutal!