Cook Political Moves Georgia From Likely Republican to Lean R

In the wake of Donald Trump becoming the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, the Cook Political Report issued an updated Electoral College Scorecard. The latest rankings predict the Democratic nominee, likely Hillary Clinton, with 304 electoral votes, Donald Trump with 190 votes, and the remaining 44 votes as a tossup. 270 votes are required to win the presidency.

Changes from the previous scorecard, which had the Democratic candidate with 222 electoral votes, the GOP candidate with 206, and the remainder as tossups, include moving the Peach State from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Other changes move North Carolina from Lean R to Tossup, and Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin from Tossup to Lean Democratic. No state became more Republican.

As Greg Bluestein reports in today’s AJC, Georgia Republicans are in the process of deciding how much to embrace a Trump candidacy now that his nomination is virtually inevitable. Strong support for Trump among Georgia’s GOP officeholders and party leaders, especially if Newt Gingrich were to formally join the Trump team, would increase the odds of Georgia’s electoral votes going to Trump. An independent third party run by a conservative, continued strength of the #NeverTrump GOP contingent, or a prominent Georgia Democrat being named to a position in a future Clinton cabinet might be enough to tip the balance the other way.

In any case, hold on to your hats. It’s going to be a long six months until November.

53
Leave a Reply

Please Login to comment
8 Comment threads
45 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
14 Comment authors
FreeDuckBenevolusgcpaugusta52Andrew C. Pope Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Saltycracker
Saltycracker

It is going to be a wonderful and entertaining summer.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

Trump needs a VP to carry Florida and appeal to Midwesterners.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Who you thinking for that, Rubio or Kasich?

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

I like Rubio and have favored him but his poor showing in Fl needs analysis and addressing.
Rick Scott is not the guy nor is Newt. Kasich is not DC savvy.

Trump wisely says it will be a politician savvy with DC, suggesting a current or past Senator, House, WH staff, committee chair or such. A cool head reputation is advisable. But age is a problem with several for a succession plan.

The Eiger
The Eiger

I’m of the opinion that a VP has rarely played a part in winning a national election. With that said I think Kasich would be a logical and good pick. I take issue with your statement that Kasich isn’t DC savvy. What leads you to that conclusion? This is the guy who wrote the budget the last time the US actually had a balanced budget. He spent nearly 20 years in DC as a member of congress. How exactly is he not DC savvy?

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

Kasich: My bad, I was thinking of his constant I did this in Ohio talks.
If he passes muster, I’ll have no issue.

Benevolus
Benevolus

I agree. Hard to say any VP candidate has helped much in the recent past, but they can probably hurt, i.e. Palin, Quayle, Lieberman, Edwards.

I suppose Cheney and Gore might be examples of VP candidates who have helped, but probably marginal. Mostly they just weren’t mistakes.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

If Rubio thought he could win a race in Florida he would have tried to mount a race for his Senate seat. I think even he recognizes he’s damaged goods.

Rick Scott would be hilarious as a VP nominee. I’m sure a national audience would love to hear a guy whose company paid a $600 million fine for massive Medicare fraud, talk about “burdensome government regulations.”

John Konop
John Konop

……… An independent third party run by a conservative, continued strength of the #NeverTrump GOP contingent,…….. Definition of a RedState type ( Erick Erickson) Conservative: 1) Pro policemen of the world foreign policy, we cannot afford, and does not work. Not really sure how this is conservative, but hey Hillary is on your team. 2) Trade deals that wiped out working class jobs with countries that have slave like labor conditions, steal our intellectual property and manipulates currency. If we do anything about it you are a protectionist, Erickson/Hillary crowd wants to do more trade deals like this, that keeps… Read more »

xdog
xdog

It’s hard to see ‘an independent third party run’ in the offing. For one thing, who would head a renegade party? Not Cruz.

I agree that it will be a long 6 months–it’ll be loud, expensive, and dirty too.

The Eiger
The Eiger

“Who would head a renegade party?” Mitt Romney went on his Donald Trump rant a month or so go for a reason. He could be setting himself up for a run. If someone like a Mitt Romney were to run and win just a handful of states. Say Florida, Utah, New Hampshire, Michigan and another small state then he keeps Hillary or Trump from getting the number of electoral votes they need to win outright. Then the republican House picks the president. There is no way the House picks Trump or Hillary. They will probably pick Romney or Paul Ryan.… Read more »

Benevolus
Benevolus

If the House is going to pick the president, I say they take a tip from the Senate and wait until the new Congress is seated and let them pick the president!

Noway2016
Noway2016

Why? They didn’t wait for the “new congress” before they ramrodded obama care down our throats in 2010.

edatlanta
edatlanta

Oh! And let’s not forget the polling shows across the board Republicans have lower favorability and higher unfavorability than Democrats. IIRC, no one preferred Republicans to Democrats. Even GOPers like their party less than Democrats like their own.

In short, the Republican Party is in some serious trouble and no one is to blame but Republicans.

Bart
Bart

It is Cinco de Mayo. Does anybody believe these numbers will be anywhere close to the actual outcome 6 months from now?

What if Hillary is indicted? What if Trump’s oppo research uncovers something that finally sticks to the Clintons? What if there is a major terror attack? So many variables that any poll or prediction is irrelevant at this stage. Nice for a chat, but that’s about it.

The Eiger
The Eiger

How many people said that the polls from last June, July, and August that showed Trump winning were just crap because they were too far out? No way Trump wins the nomination. I know I said that. The problem with Trump is you either love him or hate him. There are not many people in the middle to win over like a typical nominee has. His numbers may improve somewhat from where they are now, but Hillary Clinton is going to beat him like a drum.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Disagree. Blue collar Dems carry Trump to the White House.

The Eiger
The Eiger

Like I have said before. There aren’t enough racist, angry, white men in the US (even from the democrat party) to make up a 30+ point loss in women voters. Not going to happen.

As a republican, I’m going to sit back and let the house burn down. Say I told you so and then support someone that can beat Hillary in 2020 and rebuild the republican party. You may not believe it, but this election is already over.

Bart
Bart

Last June, Bush was the presumptive nominee, a lock. Same for Hillary on the other side (she likely still gets the nomination, but nobody predicted Sanders would win so many states and give her a strong run). So polls were wrong then and mean absolutely nothing now. GA will not vote for Hillary or Bernie, just not going to happen. Cook and his crew can play around with it, but there is nothing to indicate a big surge in dem votes if Hillary is the nominee. I would argue dems will lose votes because blacks will not be inspired as… Read more »

The Eiger
The Eiger

I’m not arguing that the polls today will be the eventual outcome. I’m saying that according to polls as of today Trump is losing women voters by 30+ points. I’m saying that there aren’t enough racist, angry, white men to make that difference up between now and November. What is the misogynist Trump going to do to win over women voters between now and then so that he doesn’t lose that demographic by 30 points? Romney lost women voters by 14% and you think Trump can win this election even if he loses women voters by 30 points? Let’s come… Read more »

Bart
Bart

You mentioned polls from last June. I just pointed out how wrong they were then and how likely they are wrong now. Trump received more GOP primary votes than any other candidate in history despite facing one of if not the largest field. He did this spending far less than most if not all of the major candidates. He has crossover appeal that no other GOPer offers resulting in many new voters moving to the GOP over the past few months. He has a message that resonates with a large segment of our working (or those who desire to work)… Read more »

The Eiger
The Eiger

Just go ahead and flag this post so that the day after the election I can say I told you so on cinco de mayo.

Bart
Bart

Bandera aplicada.

gcp
gcp

I estimate five to ten percent of Repubs won’t vote Trumpet under any circumstances. Also most “Reagan Democrats” are dead or became Republicans years ago.

On the other side Hilly gets most all the minority vote and the old line/traditional Democrats. There are a few that don’t like her because of trade deals, bad foreign policy and corruption but would they vote for Trumpet? Probably not. He will have to bring in folks that rarely vote or don’t vote at all. Also his VP pick will be quite important.

But for me it’s way too early to call this election.

John Konop
John Konop

gcp,

I agree, but also we need to add in factors like a down turn in the economy, unrest with terrorist act and Middle East situation becoming worse.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I think a major terror attack would be a boon for Hillary as Amercians would begin to ponder the question of “do we really want to hand the country with a guy with a fifth-grade level of foreign policy knowledge?”

gcp
gcp

They are equally incompetent on foreign affairs. Hilly supported Iraq War, Libya mess..Now she wants more troops in Syria, regime change, no fly zone.

Meanwhile Trumpet has either a secret plan for ISIS or wants he to “seize” the oil fields. In other words he doesn’t know what to do. And he couldn’t explain the nuclear triad in one of the debates.

FreeDuck
FreeDuck

What you’re describing here is not “equal incompetence”. There is a huge difference between having a bad idea and having no ideas.

gcp
gcp

I will stay with my interpretation of “incompetence” but I will acknowledge the results of the incompetence of the two candidates is quite different.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

Incompetent nah,
Hillary is flat evil and all decisions are egocentric.
Trump is capable of making good decisions and adjusting to good advisors. Hopefully his wall idea will morph to a symbol for a solid immigration plan rather than a physical wall. And hopefully he listens.

Obama is a motivated incompetent seeing America as a colonialist threat to the world.

Benevolus
Benevolus

Let’s see; Economy is doing pretty good despite difficult circumstances, fewer of our people are getting killed all over the world, we’re relatively safe here despite dangerous circumstances, deficits are getting smaller… if that’s incompetent I’d have to say you have very high standards indeed!

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

😎
If we could borrow a million at O% on a balloon note our economy would be pretty good and a lot better than the US. The slow rate of economic growth is a good indicator that money is being poorly spent.

http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

“adjusting to good advisors”

Like the guy whose lone foreign policy “qualification” is collegiate model UN?

Say what you will about Hillary’s hawkishness, but at least she’s capable of forming a coherent thought on foreign policy. Comparing Clinton to Trump is like comparing Jeff Francoeur to a tee baller with no arms… Sure Francoeur may suck at baseball, but he’s a heck of a lot better than Jimmy No Arms.

John Konop
John Konop

Salt and b, This is a better way to measure the issue of our economy falling to far in the red. This is why the bubble will bust. Why I have recommended what I posted for for years, as you know. ……….National Debt Tops $18 Trillion: Guess How Much You Owe?…….. …………The availability of credit in the U.S. was a major catalyst in the economic boom of the twentieth century. However, too much of a good thing can also be a problem. Is the U.S. too reliant on debt? Is the federal government mortgaging the future earnings of an entire… Read more »

augusta52
augusta52

69-year old Trump picking 73-year old Gingrich for vice president? Yeah, that would be looking to the future…if Trump needs Gingrich to carry Georgia, then the election REALLY is over!

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I can see the article now: “Orange serial adulterer tabs white serial adulterer to take down wife of third serial adulterer.” NEW YORK CITY – Donald Trump extended a grotesquely tiny hand to Newt Gingrich on Thursday, offering the former Speaker of the House a spot on the Republican ticket. Trump cited Gingrich’s experience battling the Clinton Administration and praised the famously acerbic Cogressman as “great with women, great with the blacks, great with people nostalgic for 1994.” Gingrich, for his part, praised Trump’s visionary leadership and vowed to resurrect the the attacks he launched against the Clinton Administration nearly… Read more »

augusta52
augusta52

Trump just needs a running mate from Florida…and Ohio…and Virginia. Since 1928 (the days of Herbert Hoover), no Republican has been elected president without winning those three states…all of them, not just one. Virginia is the least likely of those three to go for Trump given that every statewide-elected official there is a Democrat and Northern Virginia, home to about a third of the state’s electorate, has been trending Democratic the last 15 or so years (Obama easily won NOVA in 2008 and 2012). Florida went for Obama by just a single percentage point in 2012, so perhaps some opening… Read more »