In the wake of Donald Trump becoming the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, the Cook Political Report issued an updated Electoral College Scorecard. The latest rankings predict the Democratic nominee, likely Hillary Clinton, with 304 electoral votes, Donald Trump with 190 votes, and the remaining 44 votes as a tossup. 270 votes are required to win the presidency.
Changes from the previous scorecard, which had the Democratic candidate with 222 electoral votes, the GOP candidate with 206, and the remainder as tossups, include moving the Peach State from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Other changes move North Carolina from Lean R to Tossup, and Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin from Tossup to Lean Democratic. No state became more Republican.
As Greg Bluestein reports in today’s AJC, Georgia Republicans are in the process of deciding how much to embrace a Trump candidacy now that his nomination is virtually inevitable. Strong support for Trump among Georgia’s GOP officeholders and party leaders, especially if Newt Gingrich were to formally join the Trump team, would increase the odds of Georgia’s electoral votes going to Trump. An independent third party run by a conservative, continued strength of the #NeverTrump GOP contingent, or a prominent Georgia Democrat being named to a position in a future Clinton cabinet might be enough to tip the balance the other way.
In any case, hold on to your hats. It’s going to be a long six months until November.