February 25, 2016 4:48 PM
Atlanta’s Channel 11 released a new poll of Georgia voters five days before Super Tuesday that shows Donald Trump with a substantial lead in the Republican Party primary. According to the poll, Trump is favored by 45% of likely and actual GOP primary voters, followed by Marco Rubio at 19%, Ted Cruz at 16%, Ben Carson at 8% and John Kasich at 6%. 5% are undecided. In the Democratic race, two thirds of likely and actual Democratic primary voters favor Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders. Clinton gets 66% to Sanders’s 27%. 7% are undecided.
Perhaps more interesting though are the perceptions of who might win in November. While much of the conventional wisdom says that a Trump – Clinton matchup would lead to a big Republican loss, that’s not the case with this survey, which has Trump beating Clinton 50% to 41% with 9% undecided. Other head-to-head matchups include:
Trump 50%, Clinton 41%
Trump 49%, Sanders 41%
Rubio 50%, Clinton 43%
Rubio 49%, Sanders 41%
Cruz 49%, Clinton 42%
Cruz 48%, Sanders 42%
Taking a look at the crosstabs, Trump appears to do better with men than women. 50% of those who say they are strong Republicans favor Trump, while 40% of those labeling themselves strong conservatives chose Trump. Trump fares worse in Metro Atlanta than he does outside it. 57% of those with a high school education choose Trump, while only 34% of college grads pick him.
On the Democratic side, despite Bernie Sanders’s reputation of being the candidate of youth, Hillary Clinton gets 49% of the millennial vote to Sanders’s 42%. While Clinton leads Sanders slightly among white voters, 49% to 47%, she is a strong favorite among black voters, 74% to 17%, and among Hispanic voters, 71% to 19%. Clinton also leads Sanders among those considering themselves very liberal, 50% to 47%. Sanders leads Clinton among those who identify as independents 55% to 36%.
The SurveyUSA poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday. The margin of error is 3.8% for the GOP primary, 4.2% for the Democratic primary, and 2.8% for the November election questions. The margin of error will be larger for the subsets of participants in the crosstabs.