Five GOP Takeaways From Iowa

This week’s column, a day late:

Screen Shot 2016-02-01 at 11.25.20 PM1) Donald Trump is a loser. No, that needs no sugar coating. We’ve spent the better part of a year with his supporters telling us how much they liked plain, blunt, in your face language. And in Donald Trump’s world, you’re either a winner, or you’re a loser. Donald Trump did not win. Thus, he’s a loser.

For people that prefer multisyllabic prose I’ll extend those remarks a bit. The entire myth of Donald Trump has been propagated by media who have enjoyed his ability to draw ratings, and have allowed difficult reporting of comparing policy nuances of serious candidates to be shoved aside by a man that is only bounded by the limits of his vocabulary.

Donald Trump has been afforded more coverage and under different rules than any other candidate (such as his ability to call in to Sunday morning network shows that generally require on camera appearances for interviews). Trump himself has routinely cited “I’m leading in all the polls” as evidence of his greatness.

Now he’s just a candidate that barely missed 3rd place and will have to compete on a more level playing field. The Donald doesn’t like to be equal, and the networks will have a much harder time justifying his coverage continuing at a level much above his competitors. The rules may still not apply to Donald, but tonight reality sure did.

2) Ted Cruz is a winner. Just like George W. Bush in 2000. Or Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008. What Cruz didn’t win was the expectation game. The week leading into Iowa was filled with unforced errors and negative coverage. Cruz will have to tighten up in order to parlay this victory into anything that would be called GOP front-runner status.

3) Marco Rubio won the expectations game. He came in about 2,000 votes and with the same number of delegates as Donald Trump. But he was expected to be as much as ten points behind Trump. Rubio has been the subject of millions in attack ads from “the establishment”, also known as Jeb Bush’s SuperPAC. Yet he maintains some of the highest favorable ratings of any GOP candidate. Winning the expectations game carries with it a prize. Rubio is now the candidate with momentum.

4) Jeb Bush is done. “Smart money” is often dumb. In 1996, Texas Senator Phil Gramm raised the then unheard of sum of $20 Million in his bid for the GOP nomination. His famous line was “money is the mother’s milk of politics”. He dropped out after Iowa.

Jeb’s main reason to vote for him, at least as told to me by his supporters, was that he had all the money – over $100 Million – and had the “network”. Well, he’s spent most of that money attacking the guy that now has the momentum, and the guy they were attacking still has high favorables. That’s about as poor of a return on a donor’s investment as you can get.

Those donors are now (or should be) embarrassed, but don’t count them out. These are the guys that will want access to the eventual nominee, and they’ll want to make amends. The first step is for them to admit they have a problem. The second is for them to call their candidate, and tell him it’s no longer his turn.

5) The demise of the election process has been greatly exaggerated. Yes, the run up to Iowa has been…unconventional. But after the first two debates that resembled a WWE event, the debates have become more substantive and most candidates articulating their versions of conservatism. Populism has made appearances in GOP nominations before. In 1996 Pat Buchanan got 23% of the Iowa vote. Trump’s 24% will not signal the end of the GOP as we know it.

Iowa’s GOP voters have signaled that Republicans can once again sell the vision that it is Morning in America. And thankfully, they hit the snooze alarm on Donald Trump in the process.

On to New Hampshire.

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Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

(1) Trump finishing 2nd is another now things will change where things don’t change.

(2) Had to, or his campaign was in serious jeopardy.

(3) Agree.

(4) There was evidence of that right at the start, but he’ll remain in the race at least through the mid-March FL primary.

(5) I hadn’t read much speculation on that count. Iowa doesn’t have a very good record at picking GOP nominees when there’s no GOP incumbent. That’s good news.

Will Durant
Will Durant

I would keep the champagne corked and the ice in the freezer for now. As you point out Iowa has missed on more than one through the years and I would submit the last time they augured anything truly significant was when Jimmy Carter finished 2nd to “Undecided” in 1976. Even Reagan lost to George Bush I in 1980 in Iowa. Trump still has ample opportunities forthcoming to stroke his ego including Kemp’s SEC primary and he will certainly be playing it to the hilt in his home area of the northeast. Cruz was never going to win New York… Read more »

xdog
xdog

No real disagreements, although you have to squint to make out anything substantive in the gop debates. Cruz and Rubio are happy today, Trump not so much. With Rubio’s surprising showing, goper regulars have a candidate they can support without feeling queasy. Shouldn’t the pressure be on Bush to leave and take his money with him so all can fall behind Rubio? It’s easy to read too much into one night of caucusing. Iowa is older, whiter, more likely to identify as evangelical than the country as a whole. NH next week and SC have their own peculiarities. More is… Read more »

Pete Gibbons
Pete Gibbons

Kudos to Beck for saving that URL all these years….

davidmac
davidmac

Rubio’s close third was the surprise of the night for me – and the disappointment, as I think it’ll lead to a bunch of NH folks who would otherwise be considering Bush/Christie/Kasich to jump aboard, and give Rubio the juice he needs to be competitive in SC and SEC. (I say disappointment because I support the Democratic nominee, whoever that will be, and I think Rubio is the strongest challenger in the general.) SC is really the big prize for now – it’s winner take all in each of the 7 CDs (3 delegates each) and WTA for the statewide… Read more »

drjay
drjay

6) huckabee has won his last primary…

Bart
Bart

1> Loser? Trump got more votes than any GOPer in Iowa history except Ted Cruz who put all his eggs in the Hawkeye basket. He didn’t spend countless days kissing hands and shaking babies. He spent less money than most. Hard to call that a loss, but I get it. 2> Cruz won a pre season game that never seems to push the GOP winner to the nomination. It’s a nice one day story, but NH will be his reality. 3> Rubio was the winner in Iowa not only because he out performed expectations, but he also has momentum and… Read more »

Benevolus
Benevolus

I still can’t see Cruz or Trump leading in delegates by March 16. Florida and Texas will be interesting, then NY on April 19. And I ain’t countin’ Jeb! out yet!

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

1) Way too early to count Trump out. Iowa was by far his worst state in terms of polling numbers. He’s doing much better in New Hampshire and in the South. If he doesn’t win SC, it’s fair to start shoveling dirt on his campaign. 2) Cruz was a candidate tailor-made for Iowa. Like Huckabee and Santorum before him, I have a hard time believing he can appeal to a wider swath of voters. Iowa isn’t all that predictive of the eventual GOP nominee, outside of Dole in 1996 and W in 2000, the Iowa Caucuses is a who’s who… Read more »