Morning Reads – The Day After – November 7, 2018

So, who’s surprised? Truthfully?

UGA moves up to #5

National Guard cyber units were called into Washington, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Wonder if they had any fun yesterday?

$2.2m to get out of a price fixing lawsuit, chicken.

Visual effects companies are reaping the rewards from production of films in Georgia.

$1b in profit sharing over the last 5 years.

Poop.

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Teri
Teri
Will Durant
Will Durant

Congrats on you hard-fought squeaker, Teri. I suppose in the mold of Don Balfour when he faced that type of opposition that you amassed a million dollar campaign war chest? 😉

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

No big deviations from my predictions yesterday, at least with regard to the House and with the Georgia governor’s race. Florida’s races were surprising to me (but I imagine there’s some Bradley effect to blame for that). The biggest surprise to me was the popular vote margin for Democrats. Looks like it may wind up being around 9% to 10% That’s huge. That’s bigger than the “Tea Party Wave” in 2010. That’s bigger than 1994. The Senate results will mute this a bit, but this was a pretty loud rejection of the Trump agenda. For those scoffing at that last… Read more »

Noway2016
Noway2016

“but this was a pretty loud rejection of the Trump agenda…” From the House side, you’re right. It looks like Repubs probably pick up MT and FL. If the slight leads in those races holds, that is. MT Rosendale, right now, has a razor thin edge. Scott, in FL, leads by about 30k. Also, fairly slim. So if that holds, Repubs will be up by 5, right? AZ is still very close. All Dem Senators who lost voted “no” on Kav. Pretty telling. And rightly deserved.. Increasing the Senate lead will give Trump more support for upcoming cabinet choices as… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Noway: Nelson has already conceded in Florida. At this point there are Republican pick-ups in MO, IN, ND, and FL and a Democratic pick-up in NV. In MT, Tester trails by about 3,000 votes, but it’s looking like a lot of the outstanding votes are in Missoula and Gallatin (good areas for Tester) and NY Times puts Tester at about 89% In AZ, Sinema is down about 16,000 votes, but nearly all the vote in Maricopa is in, so I don’t know if there’s enough votes left in Pima County (Tucson) to close that margin. NY Times has McSally’s chances… Read more »

gulch
gulch

Losing 25 seats is not getting wrecked. It is less than half of what the Democrats lost in 1994 and 2010.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Had not seen the Nelson concession…

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

“All Dem Senators who lost voted “no” on Kav. Pretty telling. And rightly deserved..”

There’s a whopper. It if were true every Dem incumbent but Manchin would have lost if it were true.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Democratic Senators in Trump states that voted “no” on Kavanaugh:
FL – Nelson – lost? (apparently there might be a recount)
IN – Donnelly – lost
MI – Stabenow – won
MO – McCaskill – lost
ND – Heitkamp – lost
OH – Brown – won
PA – Casey – won
WI – Baldwin – won

So the at-risk Democratic Senators who voted “no” on Kavanaugh went 4-4. I really don’t think he was the factor you think he was.

If you factor in MN, which Trump lost by a point in 2016, Klobuchar and Smith both won big (60-36; 53-42) despite voting “no” on Kavanaugh.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

Nice of you to omit MN, since the statement didn’t make mention of Trump states. Including MN, the statement was by any reckoning more than one-half wrong.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

This was a butt kicking. In addition to the House, Democrats flipped a number of governor’s mansions and, I think, at least 7 state houses. That’s got implications far beyond the next 2-4 years.

If I’m the Democratic Party, I’m looking to the Midwest for a message that works in the era of Trump… Klobuchar won big and carried counties up on the Iron Range that were pretty heavily Trump in 2016.

gulch
gulch

Nelson lost. All a recount would do is confirm the result. Stabenow, Brown, Casey and Baldwin were never at any time considered at-risk. A better argument would be that Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp and Stabenow would have lost anyway.

Ellynn
Ellynn

Stabenow didn’t lose.

Noway2016
Noway2016

David. Calm down. I said…”All the Demo Senators who lost…” Not a whopper at all.

Noway2016
Noway2016

“All Dem Senators who lost voted “no” on Kav. Pretty telling. And rightly deserved..” Noway

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Correlation =/= causation

Noway2016
Noway2016

You know, no snark, just my opinion: Those hearings gave my side a huge uniting issue. If he’d just been confirmed without all the bad optics, yall would have won the senate, no doubt in my mind.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

I agree they were useful in increasing the number of Repbulicans in the Senate. Long term, we’ll see how liar under oath Kavanaugh decisions play out for Republicans.

Noway2016
Noway2016

If I were yall, I’d try to impeach him!!! LOL!

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

Leave it to a Trump supporter to offer advice without waiting for facts.

Noway2016
Noway2016

“how liar under oath Kavanaugh…” Your words.
You’re still seething for some reason. Despite winning the House. Comical.
If you think he’s a liar, Dave, your side needs to impeach him. Good luck! Let us know how that works out.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

His lying doesn’t meet the legal standard required for conviction, just as Trump’s treason doesn’t meet legal standards either.

Angry, not seething, our governing system is under assault by liars and nationalists.

Ellynn
Ellynn

The dems had no realistic chance of winning the senate even prior to the SCOTUS hearings. ND, MO and IN would have fell regardless. FL, MT & AZ were R leaning toss ups, WV, AZ & NV were blue leaning.

Noway2016
Noway2016

I’ll respectfully disagree. Look at how thinly the margins were in the Repub senate pickups. Razor thin. I’m of the opinion that without Kav, those razor thin margins would have favored the Dem side.

Ellynn
Ellynn

MO down 4 points pre SCOTUS, Lost by 6 points
ND down 12 Lost by 11
IN down 6, lost 9

They were already going to lose pre-SCOTUS. That would keep the senate even if every one else won.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

Results are pretty much as aggregate polling predicted, despite criticism of polling. A 54-46 majority with little power in government is a recipe for instability in the long term.

But, Time Is On My Side, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_3oxD5dDSw One of the good things about the Trump Presidency is that it’s likely to both speed a flip and make it more decisive in the long term as young voters form affiliations now.

gulch
gulch

Hello Andrew. The GOP lost 26 seats. In 2010, the Democrats lost 63 seats. “Would they have done better with this economy and a guy like Kasich, Romney, or Rubio in the Oval Office?” It is an irrelevant question. Kasich, Romney and Rubio would have certainly lost to Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Please recall that Romney and McCain lost badly in 2008 and 2012. Moderate Republicans are far more popular with Democrats and oped writers than they are with voters. Democrats praise them … while on their way to voting for their own candidates. And moderate Republicans… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

The GOP lost 26 seats. In 2010, the Democrats lost 63 seats. As I’ve noted elsewhere, raw seat totals aren’t the best measure of the size of a wave thanks to both gerrymandering and geography (i.e., every state gets at least one House seat). The Democrats lost more raw seats in 2010, despite a smaller popular vote margin than Dems in 2008 or 2016, because they were defending a number of “Lean R” districts that had been drawn up after Republicans enjoyed a lot of success in 2000. Also, Democrats will likely end up +35 to +38 if results hold.… Read more »

gulch
gulch

Cite? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106-2.html “I’m not sure you’re aware of how hypotheticals work.” Basing this roughly on history. GOP candidates ran to the right in 1964, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004 and 2016. Of those, only George H. W. Bush in 1992 and Barry Goldwater in 1964 failed to win an electoral college majority. GOP candidates ran as moderates in 1960, 1976, 1996, 2008 and 2012. Track record: 0-5. Moderate Democrats like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton do far better in national elections than moderate Republicans. No moderate Republican has won the White House since Eisenhower. Case in point:… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Dude, I don’t disagree with you on election patterns. THATS clap emoji WHY clap emoji I clap emoji ASKED clap emoji A clap emoji HYPOTHETICAL As for missing Republican voters… here are some counterpoints: https://www.wsj.com/articles/karl-rove-the-myth-of-the-stay-at-home-republicans-1427930037 . According to exit polls, self-identified conservatives made up 35% of the 2012 turnout, and 82% of them voted for Mr. Romney. This translates into about 45.2 million conservatives who turned out—roughly 531,000 more than in 2008. In 2008 conservatives were 34% of the turnout, and 78% voted for John McCain. So Mr. Romney got around 2.2 million more conservative voters than Mr. McCain—and the… Read more »

Lady T
Lady T

There is no such thing as the national “popular vote” for Congress. The left keeps talking about this, but it doesn’t make it any less idiotic. There are state Senate seats and House district seats. Read your Constitution. The left lacks any understanding that our country is not a democracy, it is a republic of States. That is how the founders intended, so the larger states don’t get to rule over the small ones.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Bruh.

I’m well aware of how Congress operates. I used to work there. Looking at the House popular vote is instructive when figuring out how the country is feeling. As I’ve noted, gerrymandering makes raw House seats a bad measurement. The structure of the Senate and staggered elections make Senate seats a bad measurement. That’s why campaign folks, political scientists, etc. look at national popular vote. It’s a measuring tool, no one is arguing that it has any impact on governance. Learn to read.

Raleigh
Raleigh

Lots of people are predicting doom and gloom for Trump in 2020 but I’m not so sure. Having the Dem’s in control of the house particularly Pelosi and Waters may play right into his hand. I can think of no better two people to fire up Repubs than those two. One thing is certain get out the popcorn it’s going to be entertaining.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Except Republicans already use Pelosi and Waters to fire up their base and got creamed in the House despite it. Pelosi and Waters are probably the two most-mentioned Democratic politicians at any Trump rally. Pelosi for obvious reasons. Waters for more dubious ones.

Raleigh
Raleigh

We’ll see. Remember she was speaker once so how did that work out for you…..

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

how did that work out for you…..

Barack Obama became President and Democrats won the House popular vote in the next elections by 9+ points.

Raleigh
Raleigh

Don’t stop there. Then lost the house and then the senate and then the presidency.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I don’t think it’s helpful to go beyond one election, quite frankly. By your logic Barack Obama’s win in 2008 was the result of Newt Gingrich being speaker.

Last time Democrats took control of Congress in a mid-term they had big gains in the following Presidential year. We’ll see if that holds true in 2020.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

It’s worked out for millions. Pre-existing conditions are covered by insurance.

Raleigh
Raleigh

Indeed and we got to keep out doctors, same insurance plan, and pocketed 2500 per household. I’m still waiting on the 2500 to pay my 7500+in additional cost.

Benevolus
Benevolus

I would think you would be happy that Obamacare did not force companies to not dump you. Free market. MAGA.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Yeah, but the death panels didn’t work… still way too many old people walking around.

Raleigh
Raleigh

That is exactly what happened. The company dumped the good plan for a worthless catastrophic coverage plan claiming they were following ACA rules. I have to cover the first 7500 out of pocked before they will pay anything then it’s 80 pay 20… The Free market is beginning to offer better plans when I can get one for less I will….

Benevolus
Benevolus

That was you profit-hungry insurance company, not Obamacare.

Raleigh
Raleigh

No they may have used it but the ACA was the excuse. Most private companies did the same thing because of ACA regulations but in the socialist view it’s never the fault of government only greedy for profit companies are to blame…

Benevolus
Benevolus

Oh it’s the governments fault alright. The government should not have allowed such terrible manipulation of the people!

Ellynn
Ellynn

His chances of winning PA, MI, & WI in 2020 have dropped drastically in the last year.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Wanted to make this a separate post for discussion purposes… There are three things that interest me going forward: One: Democrats have leverage now, how do they use it? Pelosi is one of the most talented legislators in the history of Congress… she understands strategy and she controls her caucus way better than Ryan or Boehner could ever pretend to. Nothing hits the floor of the House without the Speaker’s approval, so Democrats have the ability to curtail a lot of Trump’s agenda. How far do they go and are they willing to pull the same debt ceiling b.s. Republicans… Read more »

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

Does anyone know how long it will take GA to count the absentee ballots? Just looking at numbers, sounds like a run-off is unlikely. Is that how most of you read it?

chefdavid
chefdavid

We need to pay Obama to campaign for democrats in 2020? 0-4. Joe Donnelly, Richard Cordray, Andrew Gillum, Bill Nelson and hopefully soon to loose Stacy Abram

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Yet McBath – whom Obama endorsed and campaigned for – seems poised to win in GA-6. Sharice Davids won in KS-03. Dean Phillips won in MN-03. Tim Walz won MN-Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won MI-Gov. Sherrod Brown won OH-Sen. If you run through his list of endorsements I’m sure he’s got his fair share of hits and misses. He hardly went 0-4.

Noway2016
Noway2016

“Yet McBath – whom Obama endorsed and campaigned for – seems poised to win in GA-6.” As we speak, she’s up, right? This one if Handel loses, will be a surprise to me. Is this Ossoff’s Revenge?

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

No. It’s the fact no one particularly likes Karen Handel. She’s the vanilla ice cream of Georgia politics. Sure, she’s fine, but no one gets overly excited about her.

Ellynn
Ellynn

As compared to Trump campaigning for republicans in MI, WI, KA, and NV…. (eye roll). FL keeping a GOP gov isn’t really surprising, One of Trumps darlings lost by over 11 point in KA…

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

Collins, age 65, has been around a long time doing the same thing over and over. Barney Frank’s quote is ever more applicable, “There are no moderate Republicans left, with the exception of a few who would vote with us when it doesn’t make any difference.” I expect more of the same.

Noway2016
Noway2016

More importantly…Since this is over and yall got the House and we expanded our Senate lead, what are we all here on GP gonna fight about the next 2 years!? LOL!

Noway2016
Noway2016

Seriously! Some of my Lib buddies help me here! I mean, yall whupped us up real bad in the House and the results “are what they are…” so where are we gonna be fighting??

Ellynn
Ellynn

Seriously? Do you need a list or something?

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-republicans-preparation-investigations-180abf7b-0de8-4670-ae8a-2e6da123c584.html

A little dated but it will still work.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

One other surprise… brothel-owner Dennis Hof overcame the hurdle of being dead to win a state senate seat in Nevada, proving once and for all that Republican voters would rather support a dead pimp than a Democrat.

Raleigh
Raleigh

That’s’ not the surprise. The real surprise is he voted for the Democrat, after all that’s what happens after you die……….

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

I have heard they would prefer an empty chair as well. Do they have a point?

chefdavid
chefdavid

Project Veritas in Georgia. I think this is a nothing burger. https://youtu.be/NfeDTRKbpPM

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

The General Assembly dynamic is going to change. The broader metro Atlanta becoming increasingly Democratic amplifies the urban-rural split as suburbs increasingly align with Dems.

Republican incumbents were flipped out of office by Dems: SD-40 Harrell, HD-56 Holland and HD-80 Wilson. Republican held open seats were won by Dems: SD-6 Jordan, HD-40 Allen, HD-51 McLaurin, and HD-79 Wilensky. There may be others—I lack the time to check further.

davidmac
davidmac

Also open seats HD-50 Kausche (Raffensperger) and SD-48 Karinshak (Shafer) were won by Democrats.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

Add two more. Come next redistricting, it’s going to require herculean event to retain/achieve control of metro county state house delegations. Expect the GOP to further undermine the role of county delegations as it did with the Eagles Landing legislation. Take note that didn’t turn out so well..

A possible action if the GOP is fully controlling Congressional redistricting is north metro suburban districts that are spoke-like in shape. It’s playing fire. Handel has been singed if not burnt. Lots of people in CD-6 resented being placed there the last go-around.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

I’m unfamiliar with nearly all of the Dems above, and not very familiar with most of the districts they represent, but the ousted Republicans and the open districts very likely are described as moderate.

Moderate Republicans are in a Catch-22. They can’t win a primary if they denounce Trumpism, and should they survive, there are headwinds in the general. Incumbency is increasingly no longer enough in moderate districts. The GOP base has drifted so far right that is now the full-throated voice of the party categorically labelling all Dems extremist is being called out on it.

xdog
xdog

Does the 50% + 1 rule apply to Raffensperger/Barrow? How about the PSC races?

Ellynn
Ellynn

Yes.

xdog
xdog

Thanks.

Ellynn
Ellynn

Public Service Announcement – The traditional post Labor Day election year hold of DOJ/FBI indictments, serving of warrants, raids, civil suits, etc., and any state level happenings of a similar notion are over as of 1:00 AM EST (Alaska polls closed).

Make sure all popcorn and snacks are restocked and ready leading into the DC circuit Grand Jury scheduled for this Friday morning.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Bastions of liberalism Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah all voted to expand Medicaid last night. That brings the total of states who’ve expanded Medicaid under Obamacare to 36.

Ellynn
Ellynn
Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Both of those governorships flipped from R to D. We could conceivably get to 38 states with expanded Medicaid.

Obamacare had a good night last night.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

If recall Mr. Lindsay’s endorsement of Duncan stating Duncan supported expanding Medicaid, without any mentioning Obamacare, natch.

xdog
xdog

Jody Hice won with 63 percent, less than his margin in 2014. He was unopposed in two years ago. Love that wikipedia tags him as ‘American radio host’.

It looks as if Republicans in Oconee/Clarke regained two seats they had lost in special elections. Houston Gaines is up 55/45 over Deborah Gonzalez with one Clarke precinct only partially counted and Marcus Wiedower leads Jonathan Wallace 53/47. Wiedower claimed victory around midnight, Gaines says he’ll wait until all votes are in.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Congratulations to Houston Gaines on finally getting a big boy job.

xdog
xdog

Now he’ll have something to put on his résumé.

Benevolus
Benevolus

According to the SoS site, the diff in the gov race is currently 67,959.
It also says there are 193 precincts in Dekalb that are not fully reported. (it is unclear as to what level they ARE reported.)
So, it being Dekalb, let’s assume they go for Abrams, by, say, 60/40.
A typical precinct has about 3000 eligible I believe, and turnout has been about 60%, so that leaves 1800 votes available per precinct. 60% is 1080 and 40% is 720. Multiply those by the 193 precincts and Stacey gain… 69,000 votes.

Benevolus
Benevolus

Abrams reduced the margin by 477 votes since I wrote that.

Noway2016
Noway2016

So, where are we now? How much does Kemp lead by as of 1050 am today?

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Latest count (11:12am) has Kemp at 50.39% Abrams at 48.66%. Kemp up 67,500 on Abrams and about 15,000 on the runoff.

Benevolus
Benevolus

It looks like there is probably 193 precincts total in Dekalb. They are reporting 310,000 votes counted so far. Not sure yet how many yet to be counted.

The SoS must need time to massage the numbers.

Benevolus
Benevolus

Well it looks like Dekalb must be ‘mostly’ counted. Not sure what the holdup is completing it.
They are showing 494,731 eligible voters and 310,913 votes cast, which is 63% turnout, a little better than the state average. So I wouldn’t think there are very many more to count.

Benevolus
Benevolus

Abrams gains another 2241 votes.
Kemp is only about 14,000 votes above 50% right now.

Benevolus
Benevolus

Vote diff is now down to 64,619. But Kemp goes below 50% in about another 13,000 votes.

Benevolus
Benevolus

Vote diff. now 64,313.
Kemp about 13,700 away from losing 50%.

Dekalb totals aren’t changing, so either they are not updating the Dekalb page or these changes are coming from elsewhere, maybe provisionals and/or absentee.

Benevolus
Benevolus

They are showing Dekalb complete now, with no change in the numbers.

Noway2016
Noway2016

So, is it over to the best of our knowledge? Is Stacey able to ask for a recount?

Benevolus
Benevolus

I’m not sure how many absentee/provisional ballots there are, or how many of them have been counted. So it ain’t over yet! Keep hope alive!

Benevolus
Benevolus

Well, Abrams has been chipping away at the lead all day, then suddenly at 4:30 Kemp extends his lead by 3000 votes. Where the heck was that?

Benevolus
Benevolus

Well either I typo-d it or they did. Those 3000 votes for Kemp are gone.
Gap back to 63,223. Kemp would probably need to lose another 12,900 or so to get below 50%.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

While I appreciate folks trying to polish a turd by pointing to Senate numbers, here’s what matters:

Democrats have the House. This is a very big deal.

Obamacare is saved. Trump’s legislative agenda is dead. Congress will actually act as an independent and co-equal branch of government.

xdog
xdog

It’s important that after two years there will finally be somebody to act as a brake on Trump’s worst impulses and the corruption of many of his appointments.

Sadly, the only two gop reps under indictment were re-elected.

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

Speaking of polishing a turd!! GEEZ buddy. What are you guys getting passed the next 2 years? NADA! Maybe you get to take a peek under the skirt of Trump’s tax return! Have fun! Trump has already passed his agenda. If he doesn’t do a darn thing for 6 more years while keeping the socialists at bay, the world wins! Maybe one or two more Supreme Court picks and I think I will play a little more golf and have stogie! The libs cant ruin the economy with their horrible anti growth agenda….so I figure we can take away the… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

There’s that word again. Please definse socialism if you’re gonna use it in your posts.

xdog
xdog

I doubt the House dems get much passed at all. Not the point.

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

Why don’t you define the word “word” if you use it in YOUR posts!

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Because you’re the only one who uses it and you’ve consistently ducked the question.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Don’t do it, DTM. Go play golf with Boffa Deez! We have stronger senate for TGM! A win by any metric!!

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Don’t define an easy to define word?

Raleigh
Raleigh

Not my definition exactly but this fits.

A stage of society in Marxist theory transitional between capitalism and communism and distinguished by unequal distribution of goods and pay according to work done

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I didn’t ask you. I asked the jamoke that keeps conflating socialism and communism and the Democratic Party.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Define “turd?”

dunwoodymoderate
dunwoodymoderate

Went to bed represented by all republicans in the state house and congress, woke up represented by all democrats if macBeth lead holds, its a brand new day in dunwoody thats for sure.

Ellynn
Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Jim “I turned my back on multiple reports of sexual harassment” Jordan is the perfect guy to lead the House GOP caucus.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

It’ll be a fine GOP introduction for all of the new women in Congress.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Jon Tester has taken the lead in Montana.

Ellynn
Ellynn

Last two counties left to county are dem strong holds.

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

Does that make it most likely 54-46 IF Tester holds?

Noway2016
Noway2016

I’ll take those proposed numbers all day! More help with judges and cabinet appointees!! Thanks, Feinstein!

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Assuming that Republicans < 1% advantages in Arizona and Florida stand pat, that should be the count. That would be a net +3 for GOP.

Ellynn
Ellynn

Arizona will take a while…

“She said the recorder will not update results on Wednesday because of the lengthy signature-verification process. The next scheduled update is at 5 p.m. on Thursday and then every day at 5 p.m. until the office is done counting ballots.”

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/11/07/mcsally-sinema-senate-race-too-close-call-now-what-happens/1894276002/

Benevolus
Benevolus

Kris Kobach is gone. Scott Walker is gone. Silver lining.

Ellynn
Ellynn

Trump will Kobash an Admin position or a nice landing spot at his PAC. He and Spicy can talk about not being able to talk about stuff.

NoParty4Me
NoParty4Me

Karma. https://www.businessinsider.com/wisconsin-governor-scott-walker-loses-to-democrat-tony-evers-2018-11
and he won’t be able to ask for a recount because of a law he put in place.
“After President Donald Trump won Wisconsin by just 23,000 votes in 2016, Walker signed into law a measure mandating that recounts would be allowed only when candidates are projected to be within 1 percentage point of each other. “

alpha male
alpha male

Between Beto, Abrams, and Gillum, just how many hundreds of millions of dollars did Tom Steyer and the Hollywood left flush down the loo for no return yesterday?

Ellynn
Ellynn

About as much as Adellson and the Koch brothers PAC and fondations did in WI, & MI. Florida, Georgia, and Texas got house and state seat flips out of the loses. WI & MI GOP lose seats, no flips

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

All 3 of those were Trump states. Texas hasn’t had a Democratic Senator since 1993. Florida hasn’t had a Democratic Governor since 1999. Georgia hasn’t had a Democratic Governor since 2003. (edited) All 3 were uphill battles and donors were well aware of it going in. Lizzie Fletcher flipped TX-7 in the Houston suburbs. Colin Allred beat long-time incumbent Pete Sessions by 7 in TX-32 in the Dallas suburbs. Gina Ortiz Jones looks like she might unseat Will Hurd in TX-23. All three of those wins are attributable to Beto. McBath looks like she’s going to beat Handel in GA-6.… Read more »

Ellynn
Ellynn

Barnes was governor between 1/1999-1/2003.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Reminder since the President is claiming responsibilities for victories in Georgia, Florida, and Iowa:

He also campaigned for Rosedale, Heller, Laxalt, Walker, Rennaci, Barletta, and Vukmir… every single one of them lost.

Ellynn
Ellynn

Reagan’s 11th Commandment died today. It had been ailing, but President Trump pulled the plug during his news conference today. It should also be noted that the lame duck majority in the House is now dying faster then normal, after any lingering motivation of those publically trashed by the leader of their party to rushing anything for a vote.

Benevolus
Benevolus

House Intel Committee Chair
ADAM SCHIFF

Financial Services Committee Chair
MAXINE WATERS

Committee on Oversight Chair
ELIJAH CUMMINGS

Judiciary Committee Chair
JERRY NADLER

Speaker of the House
NANCY PELOSI

I think the next two years won’t be boring.

xdog
xdog

How will we remember the Devin Nunes years?

I hope they move that little bootlicker to an office under the stairs.

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

Nunes was one of the few guys trying to find the real collusion. We all know it was the democrats, the FBI and others.

Don’t you think its funny to have Schiff in charge when we have recordings of him COLLUDING with Russians trying to frame Trump?! He got punked by Russian Comedians in the act. It was worse than anything Don Junior supposedly did!

Will Durant
Will Durant

If you wish to validate one of your Trumpista defenses, linking to a Russian comedian’s youtube video is hardly a valid source. Also linking to it multiple times doesn’t improve its viability either.

NoParty4Me
NoParty4Me

and how many elected Republicans resigned after being punked by Sasha Baron Cohen? more than 2?

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

“Nunes was one of the few guys trying to find the real collusion” is evidence of a psychotic break. The tin foil is having the desired effect.

Ellynn
Ellynn

Plus Nita Lowey (Appropriations) and Eliot Engel (Foreign Affairs).

Some new committee members too.. Think Donna Shalala questioning the Sec of HHS, Abigail Spanberger on Intel, and Tom Malinowski (former assistant SOS) addressing the current SOS.

Preview, Maxine vs Deutsche Bank

https://www.axios.com/deutsche-bank-1541540386-4ec36c8d-49b0-4f0c-97ba-0d5eddc56d84.html

Will Durant
Will Durant

Questions:
What happened with the Woodall/Bourdeaux tally last night? The margin reached a point that NBC called it for Bourdeaux then at ~1:00 there was a near 10,000 vote “data error” reported and we went back to the near tie. Whose error and why?

Are the provisional votes counted as yet? Who resolves the arbitration on the provisionals?

When do the automatic recounts transpire?

Will the governor’s vote tally constitute an automatic recount?

When do the lawyers get involved?

Ellynn
Ellynn

Georgia’s fault on Woodall/Bourdeux. They had a transcription data error. Don’t know if it is at the county or SOS level.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

“Georgia’s fault” make it sound like the whole state was at fault. Mistakes do happen, but someone made one, someone else was responsible for supervision, and someone or a group was responsible for process development.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Assuming Stacey loses, where does she go next?

Ellynn
Ellynn

Senate primary for 2020

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

I can visual Perdue’s slogan already.

Perdue: He won’t monkey up a cotton pickin’ election.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Nice ambassadorship for Walker?

Ellynn
Ellynn

The best fit in Trump world would be replace Carson at HUD. He was the manager of Milwaukee County for a decade prior to governor. However; I’m guessing he’s going to go the private sector route like Ryan. He’s got to make some real money.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

Trump’s perfect pick for Canada.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Steve King is currently the vice chair of the Judiciary’s Subcommittee on Immigration, Citizenship, Refugees, Border Security and International Law.

I’m praying Pelosi gives spots on that subcommittee to Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib. The notion of having to serve alongside two Muslim women would probably drive him to resign.

Mr1raggedhole
Mr1raggedhole
Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I trust things from the FDRLST about as much as I trust things from totallynotfundedbythemercers.biz

Mr1raggedhole
Mr1raggedhole

Shocking. I shall alert the media!

Ellynn
Ellynn

Session Resigns at Trump’s request. Session’s Chief of Staff Whitiker as made Acting AG, and by default in charge of the Mueller investigation.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/attorney-general-jeff-sessions-resigns-following-midterms-n933626

Ellynn
Ellynn

Explains the whole GOP must be loyal to me meltdown during his press conference.

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

Ellynn, I watched that press conference and thought he was honest and masterful. No dodges. Just honest truth. Plus he just told Jim Acsota, that despicable arrogant putz, and the fake news peddling CNN to clean up their act. How can anyone disagree with that?

Ellynn
Ellynn

I’m not talking about the press. nor did I even mention the press. I’m talking about members of his own party. The President threw all out going members of his own party who did not align 100% behind him under a bus. He basically told every current or incoming GOP member of the next session of Congress they have to be 100% loyal to him or he will throw you under a bus. Then he forced out Sessions, put the only “Here’s how to destroy the Mueller Invitation” member of the DOJ in charge of the DOJ instead of the… Read more »

FreeDuck
FreeDuck

They should all know by now that they will end up under a bus regardless. I mean, Sessions is peaking up at us from under a Blue Bird at this very moment and he was about as loyal as is possible. If you get on Trump’s train you should know that you are basically there in case a bus comes by.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

The last sentence was a pearl..

Will Durant
Will Durant

Actually I saw a near fascist attempting to stomp on the 1st amendment rights of a more valid news media partner than Fox News and their reporters joining him on the stage of a political rally. These are the actions of a despot.

Noway2016
Noway2016

You know who needs a whole bottle of Lomotil right now? Hillary. Jeff Session fired. New AG will have even more Senate help to confirm him/her And afterward…the new AG will actually investigate her! (I won’t say it…)

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

Now that is an interesting spin!! If they want to find where the collusion was, even the Keystone cops can pull up Hillary and the FBI! Hell half of the FBI has been fired for colluding or worse!

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

Is it just me or have the democrats overplayed their win in the House a little bit too much? Congratulations are in order, but the press and libs have been telling the world about this blue wave or Tsunami for 2 years nonstop… Compared to other midterms, , Trump is the one that had an historic win in the Senate and below average losses in the House. It took 40 sissy republicans to retire believing the press clippings about a blue wave to do it. In terms of power and direction, Trump is holding most of the cards. The dems… Read more »

Ellynn
Will Durant
Will Durant

Those shore are some purdy graphics. Cartoons for management have advanced greatly beyond my 3-color pie charts.

Seriously though they are not reflecting several seats in play especially in California.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

As I’ve noted before, we’re looking at a 9% to 10% margin in national popular vote. That’s the biggest since ’08. That’s bigger than ’10. That’s bigger than ’94. You aren’t seeing a 60 seat swing because seats are impacting by things like gerrymandering. For example: Texas has 36 Congressional districts. Beto got 48% of the vote statewide. Let’s assume – because I’m too lazy to do the totaling – that Democratic House candidates also got 48% of the vote statewide. Now with that you’d expect 17 of those 36 districts to be blue. Due to gerrymandering, however, only 12… Read more »

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

There’s more to it than gerrymandering, but I place gerrymandering as the cause of at least half of the difference.

Gregs
Gregs

DeepDark: If you’re still open for suggestions to improve the user experience here’s one: I noticed and appreciated the uptick in quality content and new posters who are here to engage. Both give a need refresh to the site. I have one issue that I think you can improve. Now that there are so many front page posts and so many new posters it takes too much time to figure out what is new since the last visit and what is not. I’ve resorted to looking at the time elapsed since the last visit but this is too time consuming… Read more »

NoParty4Me
NoParty4Me

I’m seeing new posts since my last visit as yellow highlighted boxes. I do a mouse hover over them as read and magic the highlight goes away. I know which posts I have read/unread with this highlighting.

bethebalance
bethebalance

Just reading everything after a break, so not sure if these things were already covered, but I think a moment of thanks is in order, thankful for what appears to be (so far) a hack-free election.

We should also realize– Hey, what happened to that caravan? It appears that the theory of Democratic-funded election-busting invaders is officially disproven, and the theory of milking voters’ fears with overblown conspiracy theories is fairly proven.

Ellynn
Ellynn
bethebalance
bethebalance

Thanks for the link.
Regardless of how the Pres. feels, what is clear is that no one has shown up right on election day to somehow bust through the border or vote or support Democrats somehow. Anyone who believed such bologna (note: the spelling for this word should officially be changed to “baloney”) should slowly come to grips with the fact that they were manipulated and lied to by certain media outlets, and used as pawns.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

There’s a quartet of morons on here that lack the requisite ability for self reflection.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

We were only a few Dem Senate seats away from massive hacking and fraud.

Ellynn
Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Pretty sure his office is the most inept in the entire state. Can we swap him for Cagle?

bethebalance
bethebalance

The article states that the SoS is not restricted from providing access to this info, but I have to wonder whether the disclosure of someone’s disability status is actually permitted.

TheDeepDark
TheDeepDark

This file has been available for a dozen years… you guys are just now seeing this? You can also get all voting history on the site as well…

Ellynn
Ellynn

I know this will come as a shock, but I did know this was an item that eventually is made available to the public. I take issue with the timing of the updating. I will make my annoyances more clear and less glib in the future if it makes you feel better.

And I still think we need an eye roll option with the thumbs…

Will Durant
Will Durant

https://www.ajc.com/news/state–regional-govt–politics/breaking-kemp-declares-victory-georgia-governor-race/9yLoEscqbUFOZEDL57FbxO/

Translated:
I’ve used the power of my office to blame my opponent’s party for hacking my vulnerable websites, suppressed all I could, threw some race baiting in there, and then counted mah own votes and with my compliant buddies in the legislature, IT’S GOOD TO BE THE KING!

Noway2016
Noway2016

OK, as of 620 pm, what’s the status of Kemp/Stacey?

Will Durant
Will Durant

Internet not working in Moscow?

Noway2016
Noway2016

Why the snark from your side? Seriously? Yall legitimately got your “blue-wave” of sorts and got the House. You should be ecstatic.

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

Surely Stacy Abrams and the democrats are not going to whine and snivel about losing like Hillary Clinton has done for 2 freaking years. Get over it. Show a little class. Please. She lost. It was much closer than I thought and I bet closer than most of the liberals on this blog thought. She had a darn good showing. The republicans better work hard to get back some of the voters they lost or we very well could have a liberal governor soon. That is shocking to me. I don’t understand the appeal of these radical candidates for governor… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Will has a good point. Look it up yourself.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Ok, now why are YOU ill? You just had a great night.

downthemiddle
downthemiddle

How many House seats and Senate seats did Obama lose?
How many House seats and Senate Seats did Clinton Lose?

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

Yeah. And Bill Clinton. What about Bill Clinton?

Noway2016
Noway2016

In the gov race, what percentage of gap triggers an automatic recount?

Benevolus
Benevolus

Well in this case, I would say that whatever it is, the number will end up being just enough to benefit the vote counter.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Any ideas about who might replace Sessions?