SurveyUSA Poll Shows Substantial Lead for Trump in Georgia

A poll of likely Georgia voters taken last week prior to the revelation that there could be additional evidence in the Hillary Clinton email case shows Republican Donald Trump leading Democrat Clinton by seven points, 49% to 42%. Libertarian Gary Johnson has 3%, and 6% are undecided.

Comparing the poll results to those taken by SurveyUSA in late July, it appears more Republicans are voting against Clinton as opposed to voting for Trump. In July, that split was 60% to 38%, now, only 52% are voting pro-Trump, while 46% are anti Clinton. On the Democratic site of the aisle, 63% of Clinton voters are voting pro-Clinton, while 33% are anti Trump. In July, that number was 68% to 26%. Clinton voters are more enthusiastic about their candidate than Trump voters, 67% to 58%.

For 87% of Republicans, Hillary Clinton’s leaked emails are important to consider in the election, compared to only 28% of Democrats. However, 88% of Democrats think that the non-release of Trump’s income taxes is significant, compared to 14% of Republicans. As slightly smaller number of Democrats, 85%, say Trump’s history with women is important, compared with 15% of Republicans.

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augusta52
augusta52

So Clinton is polling just 1 point better than John Kerry’s 41% showing in the state in 2004 and Walter Mondale’s 40% showing here in the 1984 Reagan landslide, even with the significant demographic changes in Georgia since those contests? I find that very hard to believe……

Charlie
Charlie

But, But…..Demographics!

Same thing we’ve been hearing for 10 years. Too many dems in Georgia have done nothing other than internalize this argument as time will eventually fix all of their woes. They pay no attention to the fact that the party is pulling left as fast as the GOP has been pulling right/apart. As such, the new Democratic message is actually turning off a lot of what used to be their base. And as such, you’re treading water for at least another cycle. Probably more.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

The DPG has been too reliant on the hope for a wave of Latinos, African Americans, and relocated white liberals will save them and has done a poor job of building up the necessary party apparatus to actually take advantage of favorable demographic shifts.

David C
David C

“They pay no attention to the fact that the party is pulling left as fast as the GOP has been pulling right/apart. ” That’s literally not true. The party is center-left, more liberal on some issues like Criminal Justice or social issues than the 1990s, but the fact of the matter is they passed Mitt Romney’s health care bill, not Ted Kennedy’s or Bernie Sanders. And the establishment, centrist candidate didn’t just win the nomination, she won it in a landslide. Sanders spent nearly Two Hundred Thirty Million Dollars, more than the rest of the non-Trump GOP field combined. And… Read more »

zedsmith
zedsmith

Thank you.

The Eiger
The Eiger

At this point, everything is about turnout. I’m not saying that polls are worthless right now, but you can pretty much say an undecided voter a week out is a person that doesn’t plan to vote. So it’s all about getting your people to the polls. The advantage for that goes to the democrats. I’m reading that Trump is in Pennsylvania all day tomorrow. This is a fools errand. We aren’t going to win there and should be spending time and money in North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Winning those along with FL and OH gets Trump to… Read more »

Noway2016
Noway2016

Respectfully disagree. Trump wins GA by 5 points…easily. There’s many of us blue collar Deplorables just itchin’ to line up next Tuesday!

The Eiger
The Eiger

And there are just as many white educated women between 18-44 that will stay at home or vote for Clinton. You don’t have to believe me. I don’t care if you do. Please just keep the sharp objects away from yourself next Tuesday night.

Noway2016
Noway2016

LOL! After Comey’s reopening Hilly’s email investigation, that be a gen-u-ine game changer. I cannot wait for next Tuesday, where beginning at 7pm, I’ll be juggling broken beer bottles with no fear!!

The Eiger
The Eiger

It must be so nice to live in such a fantasy world.

The emails didn’t stick months ago and unfortunately I don’t think there is enough time to make it stick a week out. The number of people who are undecided or will be swayed by this new story on the emails is slim at best. Most people have already made their minds up on this.

Bart
Bart

“At this point, everything is about turnout.” Yes and if Cobb County is an indicator, there was a constant 3 hour wait all day Saturday at both early vote locations. Based on past years, this means a big GOP turnout without need of persuasion. Republicans vote because it is a privilege bestowed upon us by the founders. Dems must be encouraged, prodded, even coerced into voting as evidenced by many years of GOTV efforts on their part. Thus Trump does not need a huge GOTV effort because his voters are motivated. Hillary on the other hand must focus her efforts… Read more »

The Eiger
The Eiger

“Georgia is safely red, Trump will win by no less than 7%” Nope…. If he wins it’s within a point. Two at the most. I’m not making this stuff up. I know you think I am. There has been a 30 point swing from what Romney did in 2012 in the North Metro area to what Trump is doing right now.

There aren’t enough angry white men in North and South Georgia to make that up.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Eiger, please take all bed sheets and rope out of your house before next Tuesday. And pulleeze prune all trees in your yard that have a nice strong limb! LOL!

The Eiger
The Eiger

Blissful ignorance my friend. I wish I had it. I know you will be the first person to scream that the election was rigged on Wednesday.

Noway2016
Noway2016

You know, even if Trump loses, Hillary’s presidency will be mired in House investigations of all of her criminal behavior. The Repub controlled Senate, per Cruz, ain’t gonna vote on her Socialist Supreme Court nominees. More Wikileak emails about the Clinton Crime Foundation will still be spilling out. Life on our side will still be good!

The Eiger
The Eiger

I think we lose the senate too my friend and keep at best a 10-12 seat majority in the House. But you are right. The republicans will hopefully hold Clinton at bay until 2018. The senate map is much better that cycle for Republicans and hopefully we can take the senate back.

Noway2016
Noway2016

To underscore my point, I give you Mr. Buchanan, who as usual, is right on point.
http://buchanan.org/blog/a-presidency-from-hell-125889

The Eiger
The Eiger

I don’t disagree with anything that is said in that article. You and Bart often times believe that pessimism is support for Hillary. It’s not. I’m typically always a glass half full guy, but not with Trump at the top of the ticket.

From the article you linked to, “Should Donald Trump surge from behind to win, he would likely bring in with him both houses of Congress.” The opposite is true as well. Should he tank he will take both chambers with him.

Bart
Bart

Maybe not enough angry white men, but there are definitely enough deplorables who just found out their health insurance increased again under RomneyObamaRobertsCare. If you have access to some super secret data showing the swing you mention, please post.

The Eiger
The Eiger

It’s not my data. I’ll ask, but I already know the answer will be no. You wouldn’t believe me anyway. Maybe you will next week.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

The ACA increases only apply to those getting their insurance through the exchanges and not to the 85% of Americans who get their healthcare through their employers, Medicare, or Medicaid. Plus, for the vast majority of people on exchanges, the subsidy they receive will be increasing to match the increase in premium, meaning there will be absolutely no change in the amount they pay relative to their income. So, unless these “deplorables” you speak of all happen to get healthcare through the exchanges but have an income that precludes them from qualifying for subsidies, I don’t think the ACA will… Read more »

Bart
Bart

Yea ACP, the money to provide subsidies falls from the sky. Those of us getting insurance via employment are all thrilled to see annual increases in premiums and deductibles to pay for the rest. You are as wrong about this as you were about HRCs vulnerability being associated with Huma and her perv husband. It must be difficult keeping the soundbites coordinated.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I know, I should never bring facts to a gun fight.

Bart
Bart

What facts? You state ‘facts’ as if nobody is seeing an increase in their healthcare ins costs unless they are on an exchange. That is BS! Who pays for the subsidies? Stop repeating dem soundbites and look around you, talk to friends who work (if you have any). It is really frustrating trying to debate somebody with so little grasp on reality.

The Eiger
The Eiger

“It is really frustrating trying to debate somebody with so little grasp on reality.” Tell me about it…..

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Bruh. You said people were going to vote because their health insurance costs were going up because of ObamaCare rate increases. I, correctly, pointed out that the increases only apply to a small percentage of the population (people on exchanges who make too much to qualify for subsidies). You responded with some version of “yeah, but everyone’s premiums and deductibles are going up to pay for the expanded subsidies.” This is decidedly not true. Increases in employer-based insurance costs are not related to the increase in subsidies, as the subsidy is coming from the government, not the insurer. Fun fact,… Read more »

Bart
Bart

I’ll let Bill Clinton sum up my feeling on the disaster – “So you’ve got this crazy system where all of a sudden 25 million more people have health care and then the people who are out there busting it, sometimes 60 hours a week, wind up with their premiums doubled and their coverage cut in half. It’s the craziest thing in the world.”

We’ll see if voters react, open enrollment starts tomorrow.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Let’s use the whole quote, shall we? The quote was technically accurate, but CNN decided to leave some vital information out, like what Bill Clinton said before their quote: The current system works fine if you’re eligible for Medicaid if you’re a lower-income working person, if you’re already on Medicare, or if you get enough subsidies on a modest income that you can afford your health care. But the people that are getting killed in this deal are small businesspeople and individuals who make just a little too much to get any of these subsidies. So you’ve got this crazy… Read more »

zedsmith
zedsmith

I thought that all those hard working white men had worked hard enough to earn health insurance through their employers, the way health care was meant to be distributed?

augusta52
augusta52

Just call it “RobertsCare”…you can probably figure out why… As for Trump “easily” winning Georgia, perhaps some folks on here would like to suggest some Trump-Clinton predicted percentages in some selected counties, like Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett. Is Trump going to outdo Romney in percentage in a lot of metro Atlanta? Is Clinton really going to do worse than the 45-46 range Obama got last time? One Trump supporter the other day said he would get 55 percent in Georgia…another said he would get 25% of the black vote nationwide. Heck, his folks may have me believing that Augusta… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

I’ll bite:

Cobb: Clinton 44%, Trump 52%
DeKalb: Clinton 80%, Trump 18%
Fulton: Clinton 66%, Trump 31%
Gwinnett: Clinton 46%, Trump 51%

Statewide: Clinton 47%, Trump 50%

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

Fulton and DeKalb combined are a large pool of votes, but I don’t see Gwinnett going for Trump at greater than the statewide vote.

David C
David C

Yeah, betting Gwinnett is more Dem than the state as a whole (if not blue) is a pretty good bet for election night, as it’s been trending that way, notably even getting more blue in 2012 even as the rest of the state got less.:
2004:
G: R+32.2%
GA: R+16.60%
2008:
G: R+10.30%
GA: R+5.20%
2012:
G: R+9.22%
GA: R+7.83%

The Eiger
The Eiger

So Brian Keahl who use to be with the state GOP has this data. It’s a lot to wade through, but if you scroll to the bottom you can see the total statewide. http://politicaldatasystems.com/CMS/index.php/productsandservices/earlyvote-totals There is good news and bad news for Trump. The good news is that republicans are ahead in turnout among people who have voted in past primaries. This means you can reasonably determine if they are an R or D. 54.4% – 45.5% The bad news is that among new participants republicans are very far behind. I’m not sure how Brian determines new participants, but I… Read more »

Bart
Bart

Thanks Eiger. Is this the data you were using yesterday? Looks good for the GOP. And I would also note that the female vote in red counties is high like across the state so it could actually be a good thing for Trump. I stand by my prediction of a 7%+ win for Trump here in GA.

The Eiger
The Eiger

No, the data I was mentioning yesterday was internal polling from a friend of mine. He won’t release it to the public. A lot of people who pay for polling aren’t in the business of giving there data out for free. Not up to me, but it’s from a national pollster who knows what they are doing. It’s good data, but it was only for the metro area. If Metro area women, even women who have traditionally voted republican are turning out in higher numbers than normal that is not good for Trump. 7% ain’t going to happen. 3% is… Read more »

augusta52
augusta52

Andrew, thanks on your predictions—you might be a little low on Clinton though in Gwinnett, last time, Romney beat Obama there 54-45%, but since the white majority (in voter registration) is gone and close to 40% of the county’s registered voters now are either black, Asian or Hispanic (and the actual figure certainly is higher than that, given a lot of voters do not list their race or are multiracial). Your statewide guess sounds about right though…….

David C
David C

Just to provide a baseline for others guesses:

2012:
Fulton: D 64.31% R 34.52%
Cobb: D 42.96% R 55.42%
Dekalb: D 77.87% R 21.05%
Gwinnett: D: 44.69% R 53.91%

2008:
Fulton: D 67.10% R 32.10%
Cobb: D 44.70% R 54.10%
Dekalb: D 78.90% R 20.30%
Gwinnett: D 44.30% R 54.60%

My guesses would be:

Fulton: D 68-30
Dekalb: D 80-17
Cobb: R 53-46
Gwinnett: 50-50 (+/- 1 pt)
Statewide: R 49-47

Basically, Clinton wins the Metro, but can’t overcome the R tilt of the rest of the state, loses by 100,000 or so but we don’t get called until Fulton and Dekalb finally get their count in around midnight.

The Eiger
The Eiger

I think this is pretty dang close to what will happen. I think if Trump wins Georgia it will be with less than 50%. According to the site I linked to above women voters are far ahead of men. If metro women break towards Clinton in higher numbers than in 2012 and 2008 then you could see Gwinnett flip and the margin in Cobb be within 3 points. That is how Hillary can win Georgia.

David C
David C

Yep. To think about it another way, here’s the break down by vote margin. To win, she needs to goose the F/C/D/G margin and hold down the rest of the metro such that she wins the 30 counties by the over 200,000 she needs to deal with the rest of the state. It’s a tall order, but if you start shrinking the raw vote margins that the GOP gets in the Northern Suburbs, (In 2012, Cobb +38.6K, Gwin. +27.3K, Cherokee R+56.6K , Forsyth 51.3K, Hall: R+34.4K), it’s doable : 2012: F/C/D/G: D+226,234 30 Atlanta Metro Counties – F/C/D/G: R+251,594 Rest… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Good point about Gwinnett. It went to the Republicans 54-43 in 2014 in what was a Republican wave year, which could indicate a solid floor of Democrat support that Clinton can build from based on 1) higher D turnout in Presidential elections; 2) a higher share of women and minorities than Romney/Deal/Perdue pulled; and 3) shifts in the electorate caused by population changes.

I just don’t see Trump outperforming Romney in any demographic other than white males without a college degree, which is why I can’t sign off on Bart’s prediction of a 7 point Trump win.

Noway2016
Benevolus
Benevolus

Hey I like this game!
Trump has an actual TRIAL for fraud coming up in November.
Trump has a court hearing about alleged child molestation coming up in December.
Trump himself admits he is endlessly audited, and there is only one reason that happens.
Trump already paid a fine for illegal donations.
Trump Foundation ordered to stop fundraising in NY because they keep breaking the law.

Let me know if you want more, because Trump is currently a party in 75 pending lawsuits. (I hope he pays his pollster soon or there may be 76.)

Noway2016
Noway2016

Breathe, B, breathe! Lol! Love seeing you in panic attack mode!

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

I’m interested in whether the nom de plume change 9 Nov.