NYT Upshot: Trump Has a 68% Chance of Winning Georgia

For those horse race aficionados, the FiveThirtyEight state by state analysis of the presidential race has offered minute-by-minute updates on the presidential race in Georgia. Now comes the Upshot from the New York Times, offering its take on both the presidential and senate races in the Peach State.

60 days out from Election Day, the Upshot gives Donald Trump a 68% chance of winning Georgia, and Johnny Isakson a 94% chance of defeating Jim Barksdale. Nationwide, the model gives Hillary Clinton an 81% chance of winning the presidency. The Polls forecast by FiveThirtyEight is close to the Upshot, with a 69.6% chance of a Trump Peach State victory. Its Polls Plus forecast, which takes into account historical trends, is more optimistic, with an 80% chance of a Trump win. Nationally, the Polls Plus forecast gives Hillary a 67.6% chance of being able to stick out her tongue as she passes by the Trump International Hotel on Inauguration Day,.

13
Leave a Reply

Please Login to comment
6 Comment threads
7 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
7 Comment authors
CoastalCatNoway2016xdogrickdayBenevolus Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

An indicator of the country is going in the wrong direction is a 19% chance that vapid, unqualified, sociopath Trump may be made be President at the behest of a narrowly circumscribed plurality of voters.

Benevolus
Benevolus

I’m sure I’m not the first person to say it, but apparently there are a lot of people who are broke, frustrated, beaten down, hopeless, and disgusted that they don’t care if there is a plan going forward. They just know that whatever we have been doing isn’t working for them. I don’t feel like Trump is going to make their lives any better, but it breaks my heart that so many feel that way. I do a fair amount of traveling and the extent of poverty in this country is shocking.

rickday
rickday

I see your favorite flavor of KoolAid is Blue?

Will Durant
Will Durant

The glass is half full… of broken glass.

rickday
rickday

I was at our local Ellijay Murder mystery dinner theater when a lady across the table was sportin’ a Trumpence button. We began a spirited conversation (although she says she don’t like to talk politics at such things, even though she wore the button). 1. She is 85 (I charmed her at guessing 60, due to dyed hair) and was a Ted Cruz supporter. 2. She switched to Trump after “Lyin’ Ted” became a thing. She don’t like people who go against their word (probably resulting in a lifetime of disappointment in others). 3. She came right out and said… Read more »

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

Bless her heart, since she’s likely oblivious to the fact that the Medicare that pays for most of her healthcare and the Social Security checks she almost certainly collects are socialist.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Isn’t she just a peach?
Hillary says half of Trump supporters are “deplorables.”

xdog
xdog

Here’s the full quote: “To just be grossly generalistic, you can put half of Trump supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? Racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic, you name it.”

I think those are badges of honor for the half she’s talking about. At least, they can’t talk about anything else.

Noway2016
Noway2016

With her arrogant, dismissive comments, I wonder how many nore folks she’s driven into the Trump camp? Keep talking, please just keep talking!

xdog
xdog

Complaints about arrogant and dismissive comments confirm my belief that Trumpistas are projecting.

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

My only concern is the fraction. It’s too high.

90+% of Trump voters (and 90%+ of Clinton voters for that matter) aren’t changing their mind no matter what either candidate says. It remains to be seen if the remarks are a plus, minus or in consequential with the remaining 20%. As fan of Grift’s side of the River, I think attention to a no longer inaudible dog whistle helps the Clinton.

CoastalCat
CoastalCat

The KKK loves him. Former presidents all have refused to endorse. His own endorsers hide from questions. Watching reporters chase down the GOP for comment is like switching on the lights in a dirty kitchen and seeing the bugs scatter.