In Landmark / WSB Poll, Clinton and Trump are Statistically Tied
WSB TV released the results of a poll conducted of 500 likely Georgia voters that has Republican Donald Trump leading Democrat Hillary Clinton by 1.2 percentage points, well within the margin of error of 4%. Trump has 45.5%, Clinton has 44.2% Libertarian Gary Johnson has 5.2%, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein has 2.5%. 2.6% are undecided.
Clinton is most popular with voters between 18 and 39 years old, at 46.8%. That demographic is also the biggest supporters of Johnson, at 10.6%. Trump has the largest percentage of support from voters 65 and older, at 53.3%. Among independents, Clinton and Trump are each within the margin of error. Trump leads slightly, 36.% to 35.63%. Johnson has the support of 11.5% of independents.
What do these numbers mean? Is Georgia now a battleground state? Will the results change after this week’s Democratic convention? Tell us in the comments.
About Author
Jon Richards
Add a Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Jon,
I am not a Trump supporter, but your bias bleeds. The lead story in about every news source is how Trump has surged ahead in the polls. This is what you post LOL…….The never Trump crowd you are in needs better BS…..LOL
The name of this site is GeorgiaPol. Key word being Georgia. Should Jon not post a poll that was done in Georgia? You are being crazier than normal.
Yeah, what Eiger said.
I’m curious. The 65+ crowd once was solidly behind the Save Social Security at all costs dems. When did that change?
I wish people commissioning polls would say whether they’re based on registered or likely voters, or whether they even asked.
Ten years ago, I thought the 65+ crowd was old. This year, I will be one of them. When you base a demographic on age, the voting patterns change every year.
The poll was of 500 likely voters.
Trump has said he does not want to change SS or Medicare, so at that level, he is in line with the over 65s. I would argue that his bring manufacturing back and make American great again rhetoric works better with older voters.
I found a demographic breakdown of 2012 from Roper that claimed Romney won the 65+ cohort 56-44. I wonder if Joe has a point in that over time the Nixon/Reagan boomers have supplanted the FDR donks. Romney also won the votes of the more wealthy, and aging boomers are the wealthiest ever.
At any rate, I recall the 65ers being solid donk back when SS was the third rail. More hunting needed to pinpoint when the shift occurred.
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
How does real clear politics a blend of many polls has a different story? Could it be cheery picking? Even the best poll from fivethirtyeight has Trump ahead?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton-5741.html
Now you are arguing just to argue as usual. Do you realize that people don’t necessarily disagree with you all the time? It’s your tone that turns people away. You come across as a jackass. All the time.
I get the game you guys play! So do most the readers!
I like to play Yatzee, clue and monopoly. But it’s hard to find people that want to play monopoly with me because I like to make side deals outside of the written rules of the game.
What games do you play John? Besides that of blog troll?
Andrew,
You made my point! Jon polled one outlying poll, rather than post what you said? Jon is a professional in this field, and what you wrote is 101. I actually agree with you, nothing matters short term, via trend until after both conventions.Other than media predicting Trump would get no bump……..
“Jon polled one outlying poll”
No, Jon posted every poll released today that involved Georgia voters.
I think you have trouble with the concept of news, and how one might post a news item merely because it’s newsworthy, and not because it fits an ideological stance. Most of the rest of us have mastered that idea. You might give it some attention.
Landmark has been the most consistent pollster in Georgia in recent years and John, you have been one of the most evident commenters praising their work in the past. Mark Rountree has also been consistent in backing their results and explaining their methodology on the old site. I have little doubt that this is where we are at this moment in time with likely voters in Georgia within the normal margins of error given. And yes, this far out it doesn’t matter anyway, and yes, it is also likely that Georgia doesn’t matter anyway.
Thanks Will, I appreciate the comment. Particularly on the “old site,” the moment anyone (not just us) put out a poll or did anything to be proactive or productive, it engendered an attack mantra from anonymous posters. But I like how GeorgiaPol has come together as a site where people who can reasonably discuss things and comment on them, and sometimes attack yet sometimes agree, but with much more respectfulness to each other. I made a decision may years ago to try to answer any questions on blogs or sites within reason, and do try to give clarity for our choices and methodology. Thx.
Totally agree with this! I will wait until at least after the first debate.
Not to mention that WSB “predicted” a Barnes victory over Sonny in 2002.
Can’t speak for WSB back then. But our polling had Perdue defeating Barnes in 2002.
We are not a furlong into this race……polls are great if someone is paying you to do one or it attracts commercials….
And in other news, Braves lose, traffic sucks and Donald Trump Tweets.
They will end up about even after both conventions then the fun begins. This poll along with all the rest are meaningless at this stage. But I guess it makes good filler for WSB.
The poll seems about right. 44% is about standard for Dems in GA right now. An astute politico from Gwinnett County made the observation that the sample of women polled seemed higher than usual for a typical GA election. I’d be interested in knowing if others thought so too.
If these numbers hold, say through mid September, given the excitement that Dems seem to have, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increased investment in the state.
http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2012_1106/cfv_age_breakdown_totals_nov_2012.pdf
Black female 734k
Black male 434k
White female 1.28M
White male 1.12M
About 56% female, so it checks out.
Interesting. Thanks for providing that information.
For those who are new to this, I am the owner of Landmark Communications, the firm which conducted the poll (along with our partner in the WSB polling initiative, Rosetta Stone). I hope to answer a few good questions posted here.
I’ll break it into two posts to hopefully prevent monotony.
–The percentage of the female vote is reasonable, given that the minority vote in Georgia continues to increase. Nearly 2/3rds of black Democratic voters in Georgia are also female, so when the minority vote increases, so does the female vote. Women voters are normally 56% of the vote in Presidential years — this year we project it will finally move to 57% due to the reasons I already stated.
–Georgia didn’t give Trump the same bounce as the rest of the country because we have different demographics. We have among the largest minority population in the country. About 37% of voters this November will be minorities (32% black). Trump is getting just 6% from black voters and 17% from non-black minority voters. That is hurting him badly…but not as badly as:
–The non-Republican, non-Democrat vote is currently substantially higher than in previous years. Fully 8% of Georgians are saying they are for Johnson (5%) or Stein (3%). Compare that to our July 25, **2014** poll (Governor & Senate elections two years ago), in which about 4% were saying they would vote for a third party candidate. Those votes are heavily white voters, and that demographic comes straight out of Trump.
Our poll has Clinton getting what Democrats in Georgia have traditionally gotten: mid 40s. The problem for Trump is that he is getting just 46% at this stage, with 8% going third party. Remember that Romney, Deal, Perdue ALL got 53%, and McCain 52% here…Trump is currently underperforming because of the third party candidates.
(And yes, yes, I get it that many GOP activists think Stein voters would all be otherwise-Democratic voters, but I’m not sure that’s true at this point. I think there is currently some confusion among people who just don’t want Trump or Clinton, and are saying they will vote for someone else — but don’t know the third party candidates or their philosophies yet).
It would be interesting to see how Trump/Clinton plays in traditional “country-club” areas of metro Atlanta like Buckhead, Dunwoody, Sandy Springs and East Cobb. Given rural Georgia is mostly expected to be Trump County, probably the only shot Clinton would have to win the state is a big win in metro Atlanta, probably at least 10 points; Clinton can’t win Georgia if she only breaks even with Trump in the 29-county metro Atlanta area. As for the third-party candidates, Perot got 13 percent in Georgia back in 1992, his 310,000 votes here clearly contributing to the first President Bush’s roughly 14,000-vote loss here. Wouldn’t be surprised if we have the highest 3rd (and 4th) party voting percentage for president in Georgia since the Perot years….