In Landmark / WSB Poll, Clinton and Trump are Statistically Tied

WSB TV released the results of a poll conducted of 500 likely Georgia voters that has Republican Donald Trump leading Democrat Hillary Clinton by 1.2 percentage points, well within the margin of error of 4%. Trump has 45.5%, Clinton has 44.2% Libertarian Gary Johnson has 5.2%, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein has 2.5%. 2.6% are undecided.

Clinton is most popular with voters between 18 and 39 years old, at 46.8%. That demographic is also the biggest supporters of Johnson, at 10.6%. Trump has the largest percentage of support from voters 65 and older, at 53.3%. Among independents, Clinton and Trump are each within the margin of error. Trump leads slightly, 36.% to 35.63%. Johnson has the support of 11.5% of independents.

What do these numbers mean? Is Georgia now a battleground state? Will the results change after this week’s Democratic convention? Tell us in the comments.

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John Konop
John Konop

Jon,

I am not a Trump supporter, but your bias bleeds. The lead story in about every news source is how Trump has surged ahead in the polls. This is what you post LOL…….The never Trump crowd you are in needs better BS…..LOL

The Eiger
The Eiger

The name of this site is GeorgiaPol. Key word being Georgia. Should Jon not post a poll that was done in Georgia? You are being crazier than normal.

xdog
xdog

Yeah, what Eiger said.

I’m curious. The 65+ crowd once was solidly behind the Save Social Security at all costs dems. When did that change?

I wish people commissioning polls would say whether they’re based on registered or likely voters, or whether they even asked.

joe
joe

Ten years ago, I thought the 65+ crowd was old. This year, I will be one of them. When you base a demographic on age, the voting patterns change every year.

John Konop
John Konop

How does real clear politics a blend of many polls has a different story? Could it be cheery picking? Even the best poll from fivethirtyeight has Trump ahead?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton-5741.html

The Eiger
The Eiger

Now you are arguing just to argue as usual. Do you realize that people don’t necessarily disagree with you all the time? It’s your tone that turns people away. You come across as a jackass. All the time.

John Konop
John Konop

I get the game you guys play! So do most the readers!

The Eiger
The Eiger

I like to play Yatzee, clue and monopoly. But it’s hard to find people that want to play monopoly with me because I like to make side deals outside of the written rules of the game.

What games do you play John? Besides that of blog troll?

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

No one is “cheery picking” anything. Go read Silver’s explanation of the methodology behind their models. Yes the “now-cast” has Trump winning but that’s post-Republican convention bump and pre-Democratic convention bump. It’s important to remind ourselves that there’s still over 100 days until the election. The longer range forecasts still favor Clinton.

John Konop
John Konop

Andrew,

You made my point! Jon polled one outlying poll, rather than post what you said? Jon is a professional in this field, and what you wrote is 101. I actually agree with you, nothing matters short term, via trend until after both conventions.Other than media predicting Trump would get no bump……..

xdog
xdog

“Jon polled one outlying poll”

No, Jon posted every poll released today that involved Georgia voters.

I think you have trouble with the concept of news, and how one might post a news item merely because it’s newsworthy, and not because it fits an ideological stance. Most of the rest of us have mastered that idea. You might give it some attention.

Will Durant
Will Durant

Landmark has been the most consistent pollster in Georgia in recent years and John, you have been one of the most evident commenters praising their work in the past. Mark Rountree has also been consistent in backing their results and explaining their methodology on the old site. I have little doubt that this is where we are at this moment in time with likely voters in Georgia within the normal margins of error given. And yes, this far out it doesn’t matter anyway, and yes, it is also likely that Georgia doesn’t matter anyway.

Mark Rountree
Mark Rountree

Thanks Will, I appreciate the comment. Particularly on the “old site,” the moment anyone (not just us) put out a poll or did anything to be proactive or productive, it engendered an attack mantra from anonymous posters. But I like how GeorgiaPol has come together as a site where people who can reasonably discuss things and comment on them, and sometimes attack yet sometimes agree, but with much more respectfulness to each other. I made a decision may years ago to try to answer any questions on blogs or sites within reason, and do try to give clarity for our… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Nate Silver’s thoughts today: Trump got a “fairly typical convention bounce” and appears to have gained more than Clinton declined, indicating he’s taken votes from undecided and third-party candidates. 538’s model, which builds in a convention bounce, still has Hillary at 58% chance of winning. Silver added that “conventions are not a particularly good time to sweat every tick in the polls” and linked to a study showing conventions are one of the less accurate times for polling. He also pointed out McCain pulled into a tie following the 2008 convention and that Walter Mondale led in some polls in… Read more »

LoyaltyIsMyHonor
LoyaltyIsMyHonor

Totally agree with this! I will wait until at least after the first debate.

Not to mention that WSB “predicted” a Barnes victory over Sonny in 2002.

Mark Rountree
Mark Rountree

Can’t speak for WSB back then. But our polling had Perdue defeating Barnes in 2002.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

We are not a furlong into this race……polls are great if someone is paying you to do one or it attracts commercials….

Bart
Bart

And in other news, Braves lose, traffic sucks and Donald Trump Tweets.

They will end up about even after both conventions then the fun begins. This poll along with all the rest are meaningless at this stage. But I guess it makes good filler for WSB.

Bull Moose
Bull Moose

The poll seems about right. 44% is about standard for Dems in GA right now. An astute politico from Gwinnett County made the observation that the sample of women polled seemed higher than usual for a typical GA election. I’d be interested in knowing if others thought so too.

If these numbers hold, say through mid September, given the excitement that Dems seem to have, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increased investment in the state.

facts
facts

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2012_1106/cfv_age_breakdown_totals_nov_2012.pdf

Black female 734k
Black male 434k
White female 1.28M
White male 1.12M

About 56% female, so it checks out.

Bull Moose
Bull Moose

Interesting. Thanks for providing that information.

Mark Rountree
Mark Rountree

For those who are new to this, I am the owner of Landmark Communications, the firm which conducted the poll (along with our partner in the WSB polling initiative, Rosetta Stone). I hope to answer a few good questions posted here. I’ll break it into two posts to hopefully prevent monotony. –The percentage of the female vote is reasonable, given that the minority vote in Georgia continues to increase. Nearly 2/3rds of black Democratic voters in Georgia are also female, so when the minority vote increases, so does the female vote. Women voters are normally 56% of the vote in… Read more »

augusta52
augusta52

It would be interesting to see how Trump/Clinton plays in traditional “country-club” areas of metro Atlanta like Buckhead, Dunwoody, Sandy Springs and East Cobb. Given rural Georgia is mostly expected to be Trump County, probably the only shot Clinton would have to win the state is a big win in metro Atlanta, probably at least 10 points; Clinton can’t win Georgia if she only breaks even with Trump in the 29-county metro Atlanta area. As for the third-party candidates, Perot got 13 percent in Georgia back in 1992, his 310,000 votes here clearly contributing to the first President Bush’s roughly… Read more »