New Poll Has Georgia “Leaning Clinton”

On the eve of the Republican National Convention, an extensive state-by-state poll by Morning Consult shows Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton would win the presidency with an electoral college vote of 320-212. Morning Consult polled 57,000 voters in its survey, which took place between April and June.

With this scenario, Democrat Hillary Clinton would win handily.  Picture courtesy of Morning Consult.
With this scenario, Democrat Hillary Clinton would win handily. Picture courtesy of Morning Consult.

In Georgia, Clinton leads, although within the margin of error. The poll has Clinton at 42.8%, Trump at 41.8% and 15.5% undecided, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Morning Consult’s previous poll, conducted last winter, had Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 39.0%. 15.7% were undecided. That poll had a margin of error of 2%. The changing poll results moved the Peach State from the “Solid Trump” column to the “Leaning Clinton” column.

Of course, this poll did not consider the revelation that Hillary Clinton would not be indicted for operating a private mail server while Secretary of State, nor does it consider what might happen at the parties national conventions later this month. The other major factor that could affect Georgia’s vote would be naming favorite son Newt Gingrich as Trump’s Vice Presidential pick.

15
Leave a Reply

Please Login to comment
8 Comment threads
7 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
9 Comment authors
rickdayDavo65Bakeraugusta52Jon Richards Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Gingrich is a “favorite son”? Has he lived here since leaving office? Legitimately curious.

Interesting to see Ohio and Maine in the “leaning Trump” column.

Bart
Bart

No he hasn’t lived in GA for quite a while. But he was born in PA, lived in and represented GA for years then moved to VA. 3 ‘tossup’ states Newt can claim as home…

John Konop
John Konop

It is all about trade policy…………

John Konop
John Konop

This poll is very strange, since most polls show Clinton lead shrinking nationally? Some even show Trump ahead nationally?

………..Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has withered to 3 percentage points, signaling their battle for the White House has become too close to call heading into the two major-party national conventions, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll……….

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-clinton%E2%80%99s-lead-over-trump-shrinks-dramatically/ar-BBuh5ro

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-latest-national-poll/story?id=40571216

chamblee54
chamblee54

If Hillary wins Georgia, she will win the election.

Baker
Baker

Ha. You don’t say. If Georgia is really even close, she’s going to roll.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

If Hillary wins Georgia it will be part of a much larger rout that sees her sweeping the swing states and approaching 400 EVs. The way the map is looking Hillary could win without Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Nevada and Colorado look like solid bets for Clinton, same for Virginia (as Augusta noted). Clinton’s polling in Pennsylvania looks consistently strong. I think Wisconsin is a slam dunk in a Presidential year, especially with Feingold on the ballot and Walker’s unpopularity. She’s got a “baseline” of 217. The 58 EVs of NV, CO, VA, PA, and WI push her… Read more »

augusta52
augusta52

Doesn’t make sense in some states—Georgia, which Obama lost by over 300,000 votes last time, is rated “Lean Clinton”. while North Carolina, where he lost by less than one-third that last time (92,000 votes) and where the incumbent GOP governor is vulnerable this year, is rated Trump? And can 16 percent of Georgia voters really be undecided at this point? And Maine, which hasn’t voted R for president since 1988, leans Trump? I agree though that Virginia is in the Democratic camp (the state has been trending that way since the previous decade), and probably more likely that Pennsylvania leans… Read more »

Davo65
Davo65
Davo65
Davo65

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

I couldn’t find Morning Consult in their rankings but it’s a surprisingly big list.

John Konop
John Konop

Thanks that is a great link all should read! Very informative study!

rickday
rickday

CONSERVATIVES OUTRAGED!

That is all I got. Sorry.

augusta52
augusta52

I don’t think Clinton will win Georgia—the rural vote in the state will go strongly for Trump—but if she did, it would not really matter in terms of her winning—I agree with Andrew, it would be part of a larger rout. I mean, if she wins Georgia, certainly she also is winning in the pecking order states like Florida, Ohio and Virginia. It would be icing on the cake for her. Where a Clinton win would matter is future statewide contests in Georgia, like the 2018 race for governor, so far for which the focus has mainly been on which… Read more »

John Konop
John Konop

Obviously Sen Dems are not buying the poll Jon posted!

………Nervous Senate Democrats raised concerns with Hillary Clinton during a private meeting in the Capitol Thursday over a recent poll showing Donald Trump leading or tied in several battleground states.

“Some people were freaked out, they were looking down at the polls on Real Clear Politics and asking why it was so close,” said a Democratic senator who attended the meeting, referring to a website lawmakers were checking out on their personal devices……….

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/287845-democrats-freaked-out-about-polls-in-meeting-with-clinton