Sabato Downgrades GA to Leans GOP, Continues to Predict Republican Presidential Slaughter

Looks kinda bad.
I’m no expert but this doesn’t look good to me.
Dear Republicans: it looks like things are about to get very bad thanks to Mr. Trump.

In his most recent Crystal Ball, Larry Sabato says there is very little reason for the GOP to be sanguine about the Donald in November–even in Georgia. 

Hillary Clinton still has 347 Electoral College votes, the same as in Sabato’s first Crystal Ball prediction, but he moved Georgia and Arizona to Leans Republican from Likely Republican.

Sabato writes:

Both states typically vote several points more Republican than the nation, but they are both becoming more diverse…Georgia has a significant and deeply Democratic bloc of African-American voters as well as a growing, educated, white-collar professional class that might be turned off by Trump. While Trump is still a favorite in both places, we see Clinton having the potential to grab one or both if she ends up winning a big national victory, so we’re moving Arizona and Georgia from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

While Sabato consistently has near-perfect accuracy in his across-the-board picks, I still don’t think Georgia is going to vote blue any time soon. President Obama got Democrats sort-of close but Hillary is no Obama. Moreover, minority voters make up a pitifully low percentage of registered voters so I just don’t know where the new Democratic voters are coming from. And for nearly 20 years (!) I’ve heard that Georgia is just a few years away from flipping thanks to minority voters.

So what say you, GAPol aficionados?

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The Eiger
The Eiger

Where are all of the Trump defenders? Is there anyone that would like to debate the path to victory for Trump.

Jon Richards
Jon Richards

Bruce LeVell sounded pretty confident at last night’s Atlanta YR Debate. Start watching at 5:00 to miss announcements.

The Eiger
The Eiger

I listened to every word Bruce said in the video. I know Bruce very well and like him. He said nothing that changes my mind on Trump. Bruce said, “Just watch. After Cleveland he’s going to come around. We are going to be fine.” Those are just words. I need to see Trump “coming around.” Why do we have to wait until after Cleveland for Trump to clean up his act? We are losing today and it’s only going to get worst. He cannot wait until after Cleveland. What wasn’t addressed was the fact Romney lost women voters by 14… Read more »

Bertha
Bertha

It’s weird that I enjoy something you post, Eiger. But this I like…

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

http://nypost.com/2016/04/22/virginia-is-letting-felons-vote-in-the-presidential-election/

Wonder who will get these 200,000 votes in VA ?

Hillary has promised something to everybody and will cover the super rich with avenues to lower their exposure and bury the middle class workers. At the same time making the working poor and deadbeat poor a sustainable lifestyle.

How else can you spend your life in public service and have a net worth of hundreds of millions ?

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

“Hillary is no Obama.”

Donald Trump is no John McCain.

Not saying Georgia is a shoo-in, but with a concerted registration and turnout effort from Democrats (like the one used by Obama in ’08) coupled with the fact that Donald Trump will do worse among independents and right/centrist Republicans (not to mention minorities and women) than Romney or McCain did, Clinton has a chance.

NoParty4Me
NoParty4Me

Hillary is Safe, Establishment, Partisan and totally bought and paid for. Republicans should love that.

The Eiger
The Eiger

Clinton now leading in Arizona. John McCain will be the biggest lost on election night. His political career will end becasue Trump is at the top of the ticket. Pretty sad.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/284634-poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-deep-red-arizona

Nathan
Nathan

Ugh.

augusta52
augusta52

No question the Electoral College math has favored the Democrats since 1992. In the last 6 presidential elections, 18 states and DC (with a combined 242 electoral votes) have voted Democratic in every presidential election, and another 3 states (Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico) have voted Democratic 5 of the last 6 presidential elections (each voted for Bush Jr. in either 2000 or 2004). If Hillary wins those 21 states and adds Democratic-trending Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, it is game over—even if Trump wins Florida and Ohio. Virginia has been moving in a Democratic direction slowly in the last… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Looking at 2014’s exit polls: Women were 52% of the electorate, Nunn won them 53-45. Clinton should easily exceed that given 1) the historic nature of her candidacy and 2) the fact Trump is just a horrible sexist. Black vote: 29%, Nunn won 92-7. Black turnout will be higher in a general meaning more votes for Clinton, but I don’t think her share of the vote will, or could, change from what Nunn did in 2014. Latino vote: 4%, Nunn won 57-42. Latino turnout is expected to be higher and I would anticipate Hillary takes a huge percentage (over 75%)… Read more »

Sally Forth
Sally Forth

Thanks for the stat analysis. Add to that the strong support from national Democrats and political pundits who figured the two family names at the top of Georgia’s ticket made us a toss-up state. But even with incumbent Obama and good campaigns by both candidates, both Nunn and Carter got beaten handily. I doubt that anti-Trump folks will peel the entrenched red off of our state only four years later.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

A military disaster has the presence of two or three factors, in order of importance:

1. chronic mission failure
2. successful enemy action,
3. total degeneration of a force’s command and control structure

The GOP has been incredibly repetitive on 1 & 3.

And to add some Robert Frost:
“How many things have to happen to you before something occurs to you?”

dunwoodymoderate
dunwoodymoderate

What I find most interesting about this prediction is that there is not a single state that is considered a toss up at this point. If you take the “safe D” + “likely D” plus VA, FL and NV and you are already at 275. Trump isn’t winning any of those states. NOVA makes Virginia blue in a presidential year fairly handily. The most recent poll out of FL has Clinton +9 and Nevada, on top of trending democratic overall is also a state with a high mormon population who have no appetite for Trump and won’t be voting republican… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

At this point, the question isn’t whether Clinton will win, it’s by how much and whether Trump tanks the GOP’s chances of retaking the Senate.

If the lean and likely D states go straight ticket, that means Democratic gains in WI, NH, OH, FL, PA, IL, NC. That gives the Democrats the Senate with a 53-47 margin.

Will Durant
Will Durant

The Electoral College votes of a state should really not be winner-take-all. This would be my opinion regardless of the current map shades.

Instead of the false hope of a Democrat AG Lynch indicting Mrs. Clinton perhaps the GOP should find a reason to indict Trump, for anything.

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Out of curiosity, what would your proposal be? By district with the 2 “Senate” votes going to the overall winner? That means you need to do something about gerrymandering. Proportionally based on state-by-state results? Just scrap it and go to the popular vote?

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

There’s more than just gerrymandering to consider concerning EC votes being awarded by Congressional District. Packing / gerrymandering are indeed significant. Large urban areas are generally more Democratic than rural areas are Republican, which would result in a bit of natural packing even if politicians weren’t picking constituents.

augusta52
augusta52

I agree with Andrew’s point on gerrymandering—that would be virtually impossible to avoid in such a system (that is, awarding electoral college votes by congressional district). You would end up in a lot of instances with the statewide winner getting less electoral votes than the statewide loser. This goes a way back, but in 1992, Bush senior won 8 of Georgia’s then-existing congressional districts but still lost statewide to Clinton. How could that be? The black vote was packed into 3 majority-black districts (Bishop, Lewis and Cynthia McKinney), allowing Bush to win the other 8 districts even with Perot costing… Read more »

ScottNAtlanta
ScottNAtlanta

They are conducting polling in Utah (and some are tied). That alone should show what a disaster Trump will inflict upon republicans