Trump, Clinton win Georgia: what does it mean?

From the AJC:

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton scored complete victories in Georgia in Tuesday’s primary, trouncing their opponents as they edged closer to their parties’ nominations.

Huh?

Clinton surely trounced Sanders last night. She took 71 percent of the statewide vote and, according to the exit polls, had resounding margins among white women, black women, and black men. It looks like Sanders won one county in Georgia. The Democratic primary in Echols County brought 68 voters to the polls; 36 of them voted for Sanders.

Since the Democrats are assigning delegates proportionally based on the popular vote, Clinton probably has an insurmountable delegate lead in the race for the nomination after similarly large wins in other states yesterday.

But did Trump “trounce” the competition in Georgia and in other states? You’ll find such hyperbolic statements in many media outlets this morning, but it’s worth looking more closely at the numbers.

Trump took 39 percent of the vote in Georgia yesterday, easily outdistancing Rubio (25 percent), Cruz (24 percent), and Carson and Kasich (each with about 6 percent). It looks like Trump won every county but Cobb, Fulton, DeKalb, and Clarke. That’s a convincing win in a five candidate race, but Trump still didn’t reach 40 percent.

In fact, according to FiveThirtyEight, Trump has only about 34 percent of the cumulative popular vote from the states that have voted so far. As I noted in a post last week, if the Republicans had a truly proportional system of delegate allocation, Trump would have little to no chance of having a majority of delegates before the convention in Cleveland.

But because the delegate allocation rules favor the frontrunner, Trump is still in a decent position to get to the halfway mark even if he continues to get less than 40 percent of the popular vote. (By the way, the only states on Super Tuesday where Trump broke the 40 percent mark were Massachusetts and Alabama, neither of which will be pivotal in the general election.)

So what does this mean for the allocation of Georgia’s 76 Republican delegates? I’m still hunting for final numbers and estimates of district delegates, but the AP currently has Trump with 40 delegates, Cruz with 18, Rubio with 14, and 4 not assigned yet. In other words, Trump got well under half the statewide vote, but he’s going to win well over half the delegates.

But Trump didn’t sweep the map yesterday as some of us expected (or feared). The Upshot at the NYT is currently predicting that the 595 Republican delegates on Super Tuesday will fall something like 240 for Trump, 220 for Cruz, 110 for Rubio, 20 for Kasich, and 3 for Carson.

In other words, Trump took about 40 percent of the delegates available in those 11 states. He could conceivably still end up with a majority of the delegates going into Cleveland, but that prospect looks a lot more difficult today than it did 24 hours ago. Conservative columnist Ross Douthat this morning says “the Super Tuesday results did nothing, nothing, to clarify who exactly might win.”

If Trump manages to win Ohio and Florida in two weeks — both are winner-take-all states — he might once again emerge as the inevitable nominee. But if he loses either or both of those, the odds of a brokered convention increase dramatically.

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chefdavid
chefdavid

I bet there are a lot of folks waking up this morning saying “Oh yea I was suppose to vote for the bern dude yesterday”

John Konop
John Konop

My view of the all the candidates left after super Tuesday: Dem Side: Hillary, should be sacred via the very low turn out, not doing well with Reagan Dems and young people. The overplaying the women card is backfiring. Sanders, cannot win via the Dem establishment having way more power than the GOP establishment. Makes no logical sense he is not doing better than Hillary with the black vote. One has to question black leadership backing Hillary over Sanders via policies? GOP Side: Trump will put the rust belt in play with support of Reagan Dems and economy issues. Trump… Read more »

Andrew C. Pope
Andrew C. Pope

Hillary: Reagan Dems don’t really exist in Southern, Democratic primaries anymore, so I doubt she’s all that concerned about that demo. In addition she’ll likely have the largest claim to the center against either Trump/Cruz/Rubio. I’m not sure what you mean by the “overplaying of the women card” because she’s running up huge margins with female voters. As for young people, losing them to Bernie is not a concern given the demos she does carry. The question becomes if she can drive turnout in November, the presence of Trump/Cruz/Rubio should help in that endeavor. Bernie Bernie isn’t winning because his… Read more »

John Konop
John Konop

Hillary, Is not doing well with blue collar white voters and young people. And she does need blue collar voters in place like Ohio, Mich….to win. Even Maureen Dowd from the liberal NYT pointed out her over play of the women card, has not help her with male Dems, and young people. And turnout is in the toilet, how can you say Trump will drive up Dem turnout for her, when Trump is getting an estimated 20% of his votes from working class Dems? http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/14/opinion/sunday/when-hillary-clinton-killed-feminism.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fmaureen-dowd&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=collection Bernie, As you know the Clinton policy killed the black community from three strikes and… Read more »

augusta52
augusta52

Yes, it would indeed be a stretch to say New York is in play this November after Romney lost it by nearly 2 million votes last time. Was Dick Morris (“Romney is going to win at least 325 electoral votes”) the ultimate source for that? The state hasn’t voted Republican for president since the 1984 Reagan landslide. Even Dukakis won it in 1988 (the only major state he won that year). It would be nice if Bernie’s message was limited, as in limited constitutional government, not more “free” programs as we drown in trillions of dollars in debt. But obviously… Read more »

John Konop
John Konop

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/02/developing-polling-data-shows-trump-beating-hillary-in-new-york-state/

Most polls show them very close, NY is in play as well as the rust belt…..

John Konop
John Konop

………It would be nice if Bernie’s message was limited, as in limited constitutional government, not more “free” programs………..

Agree!

xdog
xdog

Bill, I think you’re too quick to dismiss Trump’s showing. 39 percent in a 5-way race is strong, very strong. For example, ABT favorite Rubio would have had to pick up more than 80 percent of Cruz’ votes just to tie Trump. The party decided how to assign delegates, and it seems a little late, not to mention unseemly, to complain about it now. Even so, if you apportion delegates based on percentage won by the top 3, it would break out Trump 34, Rubio and Cruz 21, which isn’t far off your numbers. I agree if Trump were to… Read more »

Pete Gibbons
Pete Gibbons

Charlie’s caller today, Phil, on WGST summed up what I mentioned last week and expect to happen. Phil said he was a Cruz supporter. When asked who he would vote for if it was Trump vs Rubio, he pretty said Trump. Cruz supporters will leap to Trump before Rubio. Cruz’s whole schtick is that he is the “outsider.” If his voters are looking for an outsider, its not going to be Rubio. I expect the opposite to be the case for Rubio supporters. If Rubio stepped aside, his votes would flock to Cruz. That being said, I can’t forsee any… Read more »

Dave Bearse
Dave Bearse

The media has largely been cowed into a self-censored “Both Sides Are Valid—You decide” approach by conservatives for so long that the media doesn’t really know how to handle someone that lies as baldly and as often as Trump. Couple that with 20 years of conservatives deriding the media as liberal, and there are many conservatives that don’t believe the media even when it does call out Trump. Trump did what good businessman do. He recognized he take control and wring out a lot more value from a conservative establishment’s asset, ignorance, for his own benefit. Trump is aided by… Read more »