Georgia Democrats Need A Trump Game Plan. Yesterday.

Donald Trump as Hitler in wheatpaste on a bridge column near Brookhaven.
Donald Trump as Hitler in wheatpaste on a column near Brookhaven.

I woke up this morning to Trump winning Nevada by runaway numbers, and in a state of Lovecraftian horror began considering the electoral math more closely.

As it happens, so did the Washington Post. They believe he is almost certainly going to get the delegates he needs. Looking at that makes me understand why Ohio Governor John Kasich insists on remaining in the race — taking Ohio away from Trump might just be the difference between Trump making his numbers before the convention or a brokered convention. Once the revulsion of a potential Trump presidency sinks in, I can understand how stopping him would take priority over considerations about winning or conserving cash … or dignity. That said, Trump is leading in Ohio.

I’ve expected a brokered convention since July or August of last year — that this whole campaign was a long confidence game designed to negotiate business concessions from either Hillary Clinton or the nominee in some back room in Cleveland, something like a free pass from HUD regulation and the EPA or naming rights for national parks in exchange for throwing the election one way or another.

I don’t think so any more. I think he’s probably got the nomination. If that’s the case, many, many Republicans in Georgia are going to sit on their hands in November. And if they do … interesting things happen down ballot. That is, if my fellow Georgia Democrats get their act together enough to pose a threat.

Someone is thinking ahead — a “Draft John Barrow for US Senate” petition started floating around this week. But Democrats have more targets. Many more. 

Walk through how this all plays out. There are basically three scenarios. In scenario one, Trump simply loses the nomination and goes home. Some of his supporters gravitate to the eventual winner — Rubio or Cruz — while the rest simply sulk. This is the null case. It changes little or nothing for Georgia Democrats on the ground. It’s unlikely to happen.

Scenario two is the most interesting. There’s a brokered convention, in which Trump has the most delegates … but not enough to win outright … and the rest of the party denies him the nomination. The convention is pandemonium, and Trump runs a third-party race, taking all “true believers” with him. Under these circumstances, Trump’s run would look self-destructive and petulant even to his own people, unless he can promise something. That something would be a slate of party-switching congress-critters and local leaders, largely in the South. This is also unlikely, but less so.

In scenario three, Trump wins the nomination, either through brokering something at the convention, or outright. It is possible that some Republicans will form their own breakaway party at that point, but I doubt it. Nonetheless, Trump will demand the loyalty of his party from top to bottom — because he’s a fascist — and those who don’t will be chastised at best, and targeted at worst.

Trump will call out anyone who doesn’t follow him as pro-establishment flunkies, and may start looking for independents to run on the ballot. Hell, he may start setting that up right now. I think we’re only a few days away from hearing about primary challenges along these lines. It’s part of the negotiation: in order for him to broker a win at the convention, he’s going to need a credible threat. That’s what a credible political threat looks like.

Keep a few dates in mind. The presidential primary in Georgia is March 1. Ballot qualification for the primary election for every other office on the November ballot opens March 7 and closes at noon on March 11. The primary for state house seats is May 24. Notice to run independent has to be made by July 1, while signatures for an independent run have to be submitted by July 12. And the Republican convention will be July 18-21.

After Super Tuesday, I think we’ll know if we’re staring at a brokered convention or not. Trump’s performance here may lead a bunch of people to decide to challenge their House reps out of Trumpian zeal … or others who will want to challenge their reps because they backed Trump.

At least two Georgia state senators and an untold number of House Republicans are actively backing Donald Trump right now.

Democrats will field enough candidates in the State Senate to theoretically take a majority back, under Republican Armageddon conditions. They didn’t run enough candidates in the House last year to even make that threat possible. This time may be different.

I bring all of this up because Democrats can actually win local races in strange places if the Republican electorate is split like this. How many state house seats also become vulnerable to a Democratic flip? How many state senate seats? I think it’s about 15 house seats and four senate seats, but others may have better figures. Maybe more. (Please speculate in the comments.)

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Bart
Bart

First part of the plan should be not to compare Trump (or anybody else for that matter) to Hitler. But I get it, that’s the easy path for dems who falsely believe they will have a cakewalk to election success if/when Trump nails the nomination.

Noway2016
Noway2016

Bombastic name calling by dems is just part of the playbook. Calling trump hitler just makes whoever is doing that look like the douche they are. Typical…

ScottNAtlanta
ScottNAtlanta

The only way to group Trump supporters is by their authoritarian tendencies. The higher a voter ranks on that scale, the more likely they are a Trump supporter.

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/23/11099644/trump-support-authoritarianism

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

Exactly. Folks that prefer an orderly society, respect the law, don’t want gangs killing others, drive by shootings of children or looting or a walk-in country targeted by terrorists and opportunists , when threatened would turn to a leader that calls BS on what we have. Look no further than the carry permits and the drive to arm every citizen, including those on campus.
what was the question, who do you think best to keep you safe ?

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

Easy one, the Democrats should have come up with a viable candidate before she lined up the super delegates.

Hillary’s Beverly Hills designer Susanna is available to help her switch from pants suits to prison jumpsuits.

Posting tasteless characitures of Hitler in lieu of facing the real issues plays to votes for Trump. Trumps pushback on those playing the victim suggests that is not a wise road.

ScottNAtlanta
ScottNAtlanta

…and Hillary’s accusations are not of the fictional right? How long has the “Benghazi Commission” been active, and yet found nothing? Keep trying but her legal issues are purely right wing fiction

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

Some folks have enough common sense to grasp the hyperbole, hate info, particularly on Obama and the Clintons. I delete every chain email on them without reading them. But if you stick to paying attention the mainstream media and books you have a chance of reading between the lines. Hillary and Bill are very, very, undesirable amoral sociopaths.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

I fibbed I just opened a pic of Hillary with a caption that said “voting for Hillary because she is a woman is like drinking antifreeze because it is green.” 😎

auh2o
auh2o

Even her 1500 plus classified emails? Would you at least agree that having those on a private sever is negligent handling?

xdog
xdog

“I prefer comparing him to Mussolini”

Nah, Cruz is Mussolini, Trump is Berlusconi, which I guess makes the gop Forza Americana. Sounds about right.

Good job, George.

augusta52
augusta52

“Law and order obsession with crime and punishment?” Given the crime wave up in Atlanta with smash and grabs and holdups, maybe they could use some law and order up there. As for “Black Lives Matter”, well if they really do, maybe we would see that group protesting at the many abortion clinics, which harm for more blacks than police shootings. But I am not holding my breath…….

gcp
gcp

Trumpet is an entertainer that runs as a populist.
Burnie is an old socialist running as an old socialist.
Hilly is a liar running as someone that says she always “tried” to tell the truth.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

Bernie is a warm up snack and already done to Hillary, what GOP candidates are standing after Super Tuesday better get the best fire and radiation equipment there is. She is preparing her A team to launch half truth and barefaced lies of nuclear attacks on the survivors.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

Stats : Atlanta gangs have gone from 58 to 120 in the last 10 years or so. I guess if you myob and the cops stay out of sight it’s all good. Unless the drive by puts a bunch of slugs in your kid or you get caught up in an initiation.

augusta52
augusta52

John Barrow could not even win re-election to his congressional seat, and yet folks want to draft him for the US Senate? For now, so long as Democrats are not competitive in the 40 percent of Georgia outside metro Atlanta, LOL winning a statewide office.

Sally Forth
Sally Forth

Georgia Democrats need a plan. period. Confused, disorganized far-far-far-left folks in/around Atlanta have set the Party back light years statewide the last decade or two. Unless some centrist moderates from around the state manage to get control (unlikely), Georgia Dems are destined to wander in the wilderness for a long time.

Calypso
Calypso

I see you are emphatic, Sally Forth. 😉

Calypso
Calypso

I see you are emphatic, Sally Forth. 😉

Sally Forth
Sally Forth

Hey! Charlie, what’s up with the double posts popping up on Calypso and me? Can you remove one of each please?

Calypso
Calypso

ummm…mine was double-posted on purpose. I was trying to show my understanding of the emphatic nature of your comment. As Foghorn Leghorn would say, “That’s a joke, I say that’s a joke, son.”

John Konop
John Konop

Paging all African American Dems why would you vote for Hillary? If you combine the three strikes and you are out ie War on Drugs, and the trade deals did not the Clinton family create many of the issues in your community? Why would you double down with Hillary? Your kids under the Clinton family were not only abused by the above, but were sent to fight unnecessary wars.

auh2o
auh2o

George, you made good on your threat to delete my posts that challenged you and hurt your poor, wittle feelings! Unbelievable! You’re a bully. Speaking of Hitler, you know he burned books to stifle expression and free speech of those with whom he disagreed? And who else took away opinions they didn’t agree with? You. Welcome to the club! I’m sure Mr. Harper is so proud of you tonight!

John Konop
John Konop

George and Charlie are both good people and friends on mine. We do not always agree, no need to make personal attacks, does not help make your point. On this issue, I called out George, but it was issue oriented not personal. Just my 2 cents

auh2o
auh2o

I hear you, Mr. Konop. But nothing is more personal than using the Hitler/Fascist label to describe a candidate AND his supporters. Just because Chidi cloaked it in his term of “Political Speech” does not make doing that legitimate or any more palatable. Thanks for your opinion on this. Reasonable as usual.

John Konop
John Konop

I do agree it was way over the top, which is why I made the comments. BTW, call me John…..

John Konop
John Konop

George and Charlie are both good people and friends of mine. We do not always agree, no need to make personal attacks, does not help make your point. On this issue, I called out George, but it was issue oriented not personal. Just my 2 cents

Mike
Mike

George,

Great post and great responses to critics.

Trump is something that people should be concerned about. His motivations and his supporters motivations are fair game.

To be honest though, I’m more scared of Cruz than Trump. I don’t think Trump really believes the B.S. he’s spewing. Cruz believes all of his. Or at least, will follow through with it.

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

More unpleasant statistics for BLM activities

1,856 US military have died in the 14 years in Afghanistan
2,491 US blacks murdered by blacks in 2013
189 US blacks murdered by whites in 2013
370,000 (est. 37% of 1 mil.) blacks @yr abort the undesirables

Saltycracker
Saltycracker

2014 data – same drift
Might be time to demonstrate against the gangs in poor neighborhoods as their numbers have doubled in Atlanta to 120 with a lot of members

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/expanded-homicide-data/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2014.xls