What Gamblers Say About The 6th Congressional Run-Off

Political gamblers heavily favor a narrow Ossoff win, with record high turnout. With the eyes of the nation on this election, 100,000s of bets have been placed on who will win, by what margin, and with what turnout.

In March, we covered the political gaming site, PredictIt, and its open bets at the time on events related to Georgia. There’s an explanation of how the sites work in that article. But a quick refresher for the lazy, PredictIt operates like a stock market, where each stock’s worth is based on whether or not an event will occur and is worth between $0 and $1. You can purchase shares in either “yes, the event will happen” or “no, it won’t happen, ” and that adjusts the stock price–and thus the predicted odds of the event occurring.

Here are the three bets open for Georgia’s 6th:

  1. Ossoff Will Win:

Predictit has taken in over 200,000 bets on whether Handel or Ossoff will win the 6th. While Handel was favored to win the election after the runoff and through May 15th, Ossoff then jumped ahead and has been consistently in the lead for the last month. What happened on May 15th? A poll was released showing Ossoff and Handel in a dead heat.

The site currently gives Ossoff a 60% chance of winning the election. As noted by Contributor Mike Hassinger and others, media coverage might be inflating the perception of Ossoffs chances.

Number of Total Bets: 212,390

  1. Turnout Will Be Over 50%:

Predictit is taking bets on voter turnout, as well. The market is 67% confident that there will be over 50% turnout in this election. This voter turnout would be unprecedented in modern political times for a special election runoff in Georgia.

Number of Bets: 20,591

  1. The Margin of Victory Will Be Close:

Predictit is also taking bets on the margin of victory, for either candidate. The chart below is a “little” chaotic—a indicator that no one can make up their mind—but what’s clear is that market believes the margin of victory to be under 4 points, with a combined 63 cents for the shares saying below 4%. And 86 cents combined for the shares predicting under 6 points.

Number of Total Bets: 42,844


It’s worth noting that for most congressional races, you can’t bet on the turnout or the margin of victory and the number of bets placed is much lower- just a couple more indicators of how closely watched this election is around the country.

Think any of this is wrong? The market works best at predicting when those with insider knowledge get involved. You’re more than welcome to sign up for the site…and make some money.


**Note: All share prices are updated as of June 14th, 2017 7:00 am

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