New #GA06 Poll Shows Expensive Bloodbath For Third Place
A poll released this morning by FOX5/Opinion Savvy shows exactly what everyone expected: A bloodbath among the candidates for third place. Fox5/Opinion Savvy polled 437 likely voters with a MOE of 4.6%. Election Day is next Tuesday (4 days away!) so let’s take a moment to dissect this poll.
The poll has Democrat Jon Ossoff in the lead with 41.5% of the vote followed by Republican Karen Handel at 21.2%. If this holds true, then next Wednesday our conversation will be Ossoff vs Handel. The real bloodbath isn’t occurring for first or second place, but for third place between Senator Judson Hill, Trump’s Ally Bob Gray, and Former Senator Dan Moody. They are polling at 11.3%, 10.6%, and 9.4% respectively.
An important result to keep in mind as we inch towards next Tuesday is Donald Trump’s approval rating in the district. Jon Ossoff is becoming nationally known as the face of Trump resistance while Bob Gray is campaigning as Trump’s “willing ally.” Karen Handel is straddling the line between Trumpian Republican and conventional Republican. LeVell, another candidate touting his Trump credentials polled at 0%.
Of the 437 respondents, 53.7% approve of Trump’s job performance and 45.2% disapprove with 1.1% unsure.
In head-to-head match ups, Jon Ossoff beat Karen Handel, Bob Gray, and Judson Hill. Dan Moody is the only Republican that would beat Ossoff at this moment in time. The breakdowns are as follow:
| Handel: 42.1% | Gray: 44.9% | Hill: 44.4% | Moody: 47.6% |
| Ossoff: 44.1% | Ossoff: 46.3% | Ossoff: 46.6% | Ossoff: 45.3% |
One aspect that will play a huge factor in determining third place is turnout. Before you slaughter me with sarcastic comments, turnout in Cobb will only benefit Judson Hill. In the survey, Cobb contained 29% of the respondents, Fulton boasted 48.1%, and DeKalb had 22.9%. North Fulton is Bob Gray and Karen Handel’s stomping ground. A strong turnout in North Fulton could put Bob Gray into third place.
I think it’s safe to assume that we’ll see Karen Handel and Jon Ossoff in the runoff, but I have a strong track record of being wrong. I guess we’ll see.
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About Author
Will Kremer
Will is an active member of the Georgia Republican grassroots. He previously served as Chairman of the Georgia Association of College Republicans, 2nd Vice Chairman of the 7th District Republican Party, and Treasurer of the Forsyth County Republican Party. Promise Land = Forsyth County.
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The one thing you really cant poll numerically is enthusiasm. Ossoff has more than I have ever seen for a democrat in Georgia (at least that I can remember). Also, looking at early voting thus far, everyone concentrates on the D or R vote. The is a just as large segment that is “neither”. That group didnt vote in the last 2 out of 3 primaries for either party. If most of those are new voters or previous “unmotivated” voters…I think that benefits Ossoff. We will know Tues night, but its not out of the realm that Ossoff gets to 50%. They are working N Dekalb pretty hard this weekend and on election day. There hasn’t been as much early voting due to lack of places to vote. That will change on the 18th. Thats Chamblee, Doraville, Tucker, and surrounding which trends D.
I wonder what would be more wrenching for the kind of MoR gopers who favor Handel, Ossoff making it to 50 percent + 1 or KH missing the runoff?
WSB-Landmark poll out tonight has Ossoff 45.3%, Handel 17.4%, Bob Gray 8.6%, Dan Moody 8.4% and Judson Hill at 8.0%. 7.2% undecided.
I think that’s the best result yet for Ossoff.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/north-fulton-county/6th-congressional-race-likely-headed-to-a-runoff/512670023
You didn’t indicate the MOE for the head to head polling but I suspect it’s comparable to the full slate polling, in which case all of the head to head polling is within the margin of error.
I just added MOE to my acronym vocabulary. While I realize that you meant margin of error, in a race like this you have to remember Moe, of the Three Stooges.