Democrat John Ossoff Leads Republican Karen Handel By Slim Margin In GA-06 Race
A new poll released yesterday by the Trafalgar Group shows Democrat John Ossoff with a slight edge with 18.31% in the race to replace Tom Price in GA-06. Democrat Ron Slotin is in 6th place with 2.82%.
Former Secretary of State Karen Handel continues to hold a lead among the Republican contenders with 17.98% of those polled. Former Johns Creek City Councilman Bob Gray is in 3rd place with 13.42%, former State Senator Judson Hill with 7.98% landed him in 4th place, 5th place: Amy Kremer with 3.05%, 7th place: Former State Senator Dan Moody with 2.11%, and 8th place: Bruce LeVell with 0.45%.
Over a third of those polled (33.9%) are still undecided.
Another interesting tidbit of data is the first question that they asked the poll respondents: their approval of Donald Trump’s job as president so far. Over half of likely voters (51.47%) responded that they approved of the job the President was doing, 41.18% disapproved, and 7.35% had no opinion. In a Republican district, that can be quite concerning. It’s also why we’re seeing the NRCC targeting Ossoff early on by seeing what they can hang on him. It’s also something that Senior Strategist at Trafalgar noticed:
Cahaly also stated, “We’ve already seen outside play a major role. Last week the Congressional Leadership Fund, (GOP) SuperPac, placed a 7-figure media-buy attempting to knock Ossoff off of his lead, and it appears to be working. Their theory in this game of Congressional special election Whac-A-Mole, is to hit the leading Dem enough to set an all-Republican runoff, but not so much that another Dem is elevated enough to contend. So far the Congressional Leadership Fund folks appear to be exceptional whackers.”
With just a little over a month before the election, we’ll see how variables in DC (including the continuing drama of President Trump, the newly released Republican plan to replace the Affordable Care Act, and the general sentiment of Washington) will play in the GA-06 race. At this point, it may end up in a run-off between a Republican and a Democrat.
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nsmith
Father. IT Geek. Former 14th District GOP Chairman (2015-2017). Former Walker GOP Chairman (2009-2013). Resident of Chamblee. American. Georgian. Conservative.
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If there’s one thing I’m skeptical on, it’s a methodology of “Likely Special Election Voters” within a poll. There’s I suspect cross angles of turnout factors here: Dems would be more angry / fired up to send Trump a message than GOPers are to support him, but low turnout special electorates tend to be more regular voters (i.e. older and whiter). One trend may dominate, or they may cancel each other out. But a methodology that, like this one, relies on past primary/general election turnout, would only show up the latter model. Would really make me concerned about a 51-41 approval there. If Dems are turning out at a higher rate (like they have been in various other specials around the country), this poll wouldn’t see it.
As far as “whack a mole” goes, would have been useful to get some name recognition/favorables numbers. Osoff just went on TV last weekend, I’d bet he’s still pretty unknown in the district compared to prior electeds like Handel and Hill. Given that there’s 36% of the “Disapprove Trump” vote that’s Other/Don’t Know/Undecided (or 15% of the total vote), it seems like he’s more likely to go up than down, especially with Gray, Handel, and Hill all fighting for the undecided “Approve Trump” vote that’s about the same share. A world where we conservatively estimate he gets 2/3 of that undecided “Disapprove Trump” vote and goes up to 28%, while Handel, Hill and Gray split the “Approve Trump” undecideds 5% a piece is one where he’s comfortably into the second round while they’re all fighting in the upper teens/ low 20s. More likely he ends up in the 30s at least while the GOPers all end up below 30, fighting with each other for the 2nd round slot.
I’ve already seen 2 Ossoff commercials, both your standard positive introductory type ads. I’ve seen nothing for anyone else. Granted, I dont watch that much TV, but Ossoff is clearly on the air. My original thinking was Ossoff wouldnt survive a runoff. I’m not so sure now. The enthusiasm on the left is higher than I’ve ever seen. These people are going to turn out. This show that Trump is putting on and the fact that over 30,000 people in the 6th district will lose coverage if the AHCA passes all act to dampen enthusiasm on the other end.
I’ve seen nearly as many adds targeting Ossoff as well. Their negative content is very similar to flyers Jill Chambers used in her campaign against Chris Huttman in a 2008 Georgia General Assembly House race, a district that is largely if not wholly in GA-6. Chambers won that 2008 election, but that tack contributed to her undoing by Elena Parent in 2010.
I feel pretty confident that this race is going to come down to Ossoff versus a Republican and then a Republican will win pretty easily in the runoff.
Ossoff’s only chance at victory is an outright win on the first ballot, which I don’t think will happen.