The Night for Georgia Democrats
Putting aside the grim electoral college results of the night, there were a lot of positives for Georgia Democrats last night.
Let’s start with the performance of Hillary Clinton in Cobb County (details at Teri’s post) and Gwinnett County.
Ruminate on that for a second. Neither Barack Obama (2012) nor Michelle Nunn broke 43% here.
This is Hillary Clinton winning a majority of the vote in Gwinnett County.
Part of that victory belongs to the campaign of Sam Park, who defeated Valerie Clark in a race that few thought was winnable for Democrats at the outset. Rep-elect Park ran a fantastic campaign, concentrating on voters others have long ignored. He and his team deserves accolades, and they are emblematic of the changes in Gwinnett.
In Democratic circles we’ve long spoken of the charmed electoral life of Mike Cheokas, and how if anyone could put together a campaign down there, he’d be sent packing. Well, someone did.
It wasn’t all good news within the borders. Taylor Bennett lost to Meagan Hanson, in a race decided by fewer than 250 votes. That was a closely-watched race for both Democrats and Republicans. It was the seat held by Mike Jacobs that Bennett won in a runoff in 2015.
Overall, Hillary Clinton lost Georgia by a little over 5%. That’s closer than Ohio and just outside of the North Carolina margin. Here’s what the campaigns spent in media in the closest states this year:
Those big circles represent $10 million, the middle ones are $5 million.
You might notice one state in that group that didn’t even receive a dime. It was reported that Jim Barksdale kept Hillary from spending money here. Maybe that’s true, but if she had, could this state be blue right now?
Following an election such as this, there will be predictions of a blue wave, similar to 2006, in 2018, and a better than even chance of winning statewide offices. Given the results and trends above, it’s clear, we’re coming up, and they’re going down.
About Author
Stefan
Add a Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.
If you look on the Fulton County precinct map breakdown, Hillary Clinton won most of Sandy Springs except for the Dunwoody Panhandle as well as large chunks of Roswell and Johns Creek. In my precinct in the Panhandle, Trump underperformed Romney by 15 points. Romney was at 70% and Trump only hit 55%
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/64052/Web02/#/cid/5
The gain for Democrats is negligible, at best. It owes some credit to Trump and suburban voters, no doubt who just didn’t care for his brand of politics, but it doesn’t likely owe much to a Democratic shift in the state. I can only comment on two examples, but I’m sure if I could be paid by some folks to really do some deep dive into the numbers, I could demonstrate this across the state (hint, hint. $$$).
In terms of Meagan’s race, she outpolled Trump by well over 10% across the district by my estimates. Now, that does mean underperformance of Romney by 4%, but I think we could expect at least a 1-2% underperformance for down ticket races as compared to the top of the ticket when candidates are more local and therefore personally known to people beyond the typical “R” and “D” label (see below as to explanation on that, as well) and in her case, she was up against an incumbent with an (I) next to his name and a red badge to wear around town, even if just for a year. The fact that Meagan won is in spite of the top of the ticket; Republicans made a clear choice to split ticket.
In terms of Cobb County, it clearly was just Republicans voters giving a big finger to Trump. Being the Cobber that I am and having done the countywide campaigns I have, that makes absolute sense to me. Isakson performed at almost exactly an identical spread as Chambliss did in 2008 with a weak R candidate at the top of the ticket (the share of the total vote countywide was only a split of less than 1% between the two). Example: SD32 (Judson Hill) gave Romney a roughly 22k edge in 2012 and 21k edge, but only an 8k advantage to Trump. My estimate is that roughly 6k split ticket voters at the top existed.
When we’re back here in 2018, it’s going to come down to what it usually comes down to in tight campaigns – who runs a better shop. I just don’t have much reason to believe the Dems will improve their operations to a point to make up that gap.
lol.