2016 Presidential Race: Too Close To Call?
Wait. What? That can’t be right.
For those of you who are new here, I’ve long since given up my “pundit” title. I have no crystal ball. I don’t claim to have one. I avoid predictions on elections whenever possible. And yet, here we are, on election eve, and the Real Clear Politics map with “no tossups” looks like this: Clinton 272; Trump 266.
The one thing I’ve been saying consistently since the conventions (which was long after I quit saying “there’s no way that Trump can win”) is that if the election/coverage was about him, she would win. If it was about her, he would win.
The Inside Edition/Billy Bush tape made it all about him for a couple of weeks. The FBI letter reminded us what it’s like to have a Clinton in the White House. We now have a legitimate toss up going into the election tomorrow. If the above map doesn’t sway you into this, look at the Real Clear Politics map with toss ups: 171 electoral votes are “too close to call.
This is where people who know how to explain polls much better than I come in with a bunch of academic hooey to essentially say this: So many states are within the margin of error on polls that the result tomorrow can be anywhere from Trump 335, Clinton 203 to Clinton 374, Trump 164 and the polls are still “correct”. I’d love to take a pot shot at them but I majored in Economics instead of accounting so that I could be off by a few trillion and still swear my answer was correct.
What’s the point of all this? Well, to paraphrase the great John Madden, whoever gets the most electoral points tomorrow wins.
If I must reduce that to punditry, here’s what I’m watching tomorrow:
1) Florida – there is no path to a Trump victory (in my often wrong opinion) that doesn’t include Florida
2) North Carolina and New Hampshire: I don’t see a strong path for Trump that doesn’t include North Carolina. NH is small enough and on the East Coast poll closing time that it could tip the hand early if Trump may win, not just “have a chance”. My assumptions include Ohio for Trump, Pennsylvania for Clinton. Neither of these are as close as the first two. If either moves the other way, it’s over.
3) Nevada: IF Trump is able to swing Florida and flip New Hampshire, he’s still going to have to hold Nevada (and keep ALL the rest of the first map in tact).
So, to all my Trump “friends” who have claimed I’ve never written anything good, nor said he may win, “He may”. He may also lose by 132 electoral votes. I don’t know. That’s why we vote. As John Madden would say, “It’s all about turnout from here”. Or something.
About Author
Charlie
Founder of GeorgiaPol.com; Now weekly columnist Very interested in Georgia and Georginas. Interest in politics is waning daily.
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Very fair analysis, Florida, Florida, Florida. Also Maine may come into play with the electoral vote split it uses. Trump snakes MI and/or PA, it’s over.
And since we’re using John Madden quotes, “The road to Easy Street goes through the sewer.” Hopefully we have the sewer part done.
We pretty much know what Clinton will do if she wins, and what she will do if she loses. I have no idea what Trump will do if he wins or what he will do if he loses.
well, if he loses, i think it’s real clear that he will be litigious. its a strategy he’s used in the past.
If Trump wins, he won’t be getting 300+ electoral votes…in the last 6 presidential elections, no Republican has exceeded 286 electoral votes—that was W. in 2004—when the demographics of the country certainly were more favorable to the GOP than they are now. Also over those last 6 elections, every Democratic presidential candidate, win or lose, has exceeded 250 electoral votes (the “worst” showing being John Kerry in 2004, who won 252 electoral votes though ended up with 251 because of a faithless elector).
I actually like your map, Charlie. Very reasonable. Let’s flip NH and give those four to Trump. If that happens, he’s the Prez.
To be clear, not my map. This is Real Clear Politics final map.
I expect Trump to do better than I expected in the East, but to lose NV and possibly even AZ.
But, as I said, why do predictions when we’ll know in a few hours? We hope.
Predictions can capture and express the thrill of what this election is for many- a competition. But while I’m a Falcons fan, it’s foolish to invest too much hope in winning for the sake of winning.
Just because we have had so much fun for the past 18 months, let’s keep it going a little longer – http://www.270towin.com/maps/o3RO7 – 269 to 269, tie goes to the H0use.
But this is the map I hope happens tonight – http://www.270towin.com/maps/7LpGg
Trump 273
Crooked as a dog’s hind leg – 265
Big winners today:
If Trump wins, Canada travel agents
If Crooked wins, Gun stores and Kim Jong Un pantsuits
i think it will go on for longer, but in the courts.
and i believe use of the courts is fair game, and that they would move quickly to ensure there is no death of democracy by Christmas.
but what if there was some Bush v. Gore case that went up to the SCOTUS, and there’s only 8 justices? deadlocked election? do-over?
so Justice Kennedy may pick the next President.