Trump Leads Clinton by Six in Likely Voters Poll
As you might imagine, there are “huge” gender and racial gaps between the two candidates.
Trump’s performance here in Georgia mirrors the broader national trends of the past few days with Trump improving against Clinton in multiple polls. A Monmouth University poll released on Monday had Trump leading Clinton 45-42 in Georgia.
Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll said:
“Leads for Donald Trump in Georgia and Iowa and a virtual tie in Colorado plus a 6-point lead for Clinton in Virginia represent a major improvement overall for him in these states…Another key to how the race has changed is the measure of each candidates’ ability to keep their respective bases in line. Throughout the campaign, Clinton has been able to get more Democrat support than Trump’s Republican support. That has now changed a bit and in Georgia and Iowa, Trump does better on that score. Worth noting is that Trump has an edge among independent voters, often the key swing constituency, in all four of these states.”
Georgia-specific analysis:
Hillary Clinton’s 4-percentage point edge among Georgia women likely voters can’t overcome Trump’s 21-point lead among men. Men go Republican 55 – 34 percent, as women go Democratic 45 – 41 percent.
The racial gap is huge among Georgia likely voters: White voters back Trump 72 – 16 percent, while non-white voters back Clinton 73 – 14 percent.
Trump gets 43 percent of independent voters, with 40 percent for Clinton and 14 percent for Johnson. Republicans back Trump 90 – 3 percent, as Democrats back Clinton 86 – 4 percent.
“Georgia is on Hillary Clinton’s mind as her razor-thin edge among women is eclipsed by Donald Trump’s huge lead with men,” Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll said.
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Georgia a swing state?
Then again, the GOP Lt Gov in cherry red In isn’t fairing very well as the GOP candidate for Gov. He’s avoided any connection to current Gov Mike Pence. And Evan Bayh is neck and neck or a little up in the Senate race.
Looking forward to Monday’s debate.
“Looking forward to Monday’s debate.”
Bless your heart.
Just 16 percent white support for Clinton? I find that very hard to believe—even Obama got somewhere around 23 percent of Georgia whites both times he was on the ballot here. If the 16 percent white support for Clinton is gospel, I suspect a lot of it would be backers of Libertarian Gary Johnson—especially younger voters who while they would not vote for Trump, aren’t wild about Clinton either. The 72 percent white support for Trump seems high given anecdotal evidence that a lot of northside Atlanta whites might not vote for him…
How do they account for people who hang up on phone polls? Do they have a good enough idea of the the people who they’re not reaching to correct their stats?
This is an actual Q. I’ve never worked a campaign. I always just thot phone polls are unreliable. But idk, maybe they are?
Quinnipac called me; I hung up on them and blocked their number.
That counts as an incomplete survey and they will call someone else and not use your information. That is why these polls are usually done over multiple days. It takes two or three days of calling to get enough people who fit the profile they need as well as answer all the questions. If you use 400 people for a survey the pollster may call 1,200 people. Phone calls if done properly with cell phones and landlines in the mix can be very accurate.
Yes, but is there one demographic that is more likely to hang up?
I’m sure that there is. So you just keep calling until you reach the number of that demographic that you need. It’s an art and a science. You have to estimate who will turnout and then call until you get that demographic makeup. That’s why polls are so varied.
Trump supporters should be disturbed by the lack of higher educated and informed Republicans and Independents (former Republicans) for their candidate. Ask themselves why informed conservatives in such large numbers won’t support their candidate.
Yelling and screaming about “Establishment” and “Mainstream Media” corruption should not be enough to elect their candidate as President.
Thoughtful and informed people who aren’t driven by emotion or being “starstruck” by Trump, don’t believe he is qualified and may be dangerous. Trump’s tax proposal is case in point: It increases the debt substantially and uses pie in the sky growth numbers that our economy simply cannot achieve projecting growth rates well above the economy’s potential.
As a Conservative, I’m embarrassed that the Republicans have nominated such a charlatan to run against what should have been a lock election for them.
“Trump supporters should be disturbed by the lack of higher educated and informed Republicans and Independents…”
Yea because all those ‘higher educated’ folks are so much more in tune with current events that one reckons he must be a darned fool to not follow them.
So since you purport to represent ‘informed conservatives’ and wish to bestow your collective wisdom upon us, why aren’t ‘informed conservatives in large numbers’ supporting the GOP nominee? And where will higher educated, informed conservatives like yourself turn on Nov 8? Hillary is higher educated and one supposes informed so is that where you land?
Nice of you to jump in ACP, but I really am interested in a reply from Jeff who apparently represents a large swath of never Trumpsters.
Noway pretty much covered the ex-presidents and their position on the race.
– Trump’s website provides details of his plans including the goal of once again achieving 4% growth rate. Lower tax rates including a simpler system, tighter enforcement of trade deals, reduce government fraud / waste, etc. all contribute to the potential of increasing the growth rate. Beyond that, isn’t it refreshing to actually have a candidate strive for greatness instead of accepting mediocrity as is the case right now where no growth is the new norm?
– Foreign policy. If HRC is the model for how ‘foreign policy works’ then I’ll take a novice like Trump all day long. Name her accomplishment(s) as SecState. We know the many disasters she oversaw, but hard to find anything other than logging travel miles while accepting ‘donations’ for her charity fund.
– How laws are made – In the HRC/Obama world, laws are enacted via executive order. One hopes Trump actually goes back to the old way (aka constitutional) where congress initiates legislation to be signed by the president.
Well, not to rain on your tear-jerking narrative, but three of those exalted office holders are Dems, and one of those is married to Trump’s opponent. And the other two have had their son/brother pummeled by the Repub victor. What else you got?
The system’s rigged.