Morning Reads — August 15th

It was a good sign for Dems when there are 24 GOP-held Senate seats up for election, and the number of GOP Senate incumbents running for re-election willing to show their faces at the Trump coronation was counted on fingers. Democrats have 10 seats to hold. The NV Reid vacancy (GOP nominee polling +1) is the only one in play.

Seven of the GOP’s seats are in states Obama won in both 2008 and 2012. According to both 538 and Larry Sabato, the tie between Senate and Presidential elections has been increasing since 1990. Clinton being up in polls in states voting for Senator is thus a red flag for GOP incumbents. Pre-convention speculation about stopping the Trump nomination has been replaced with if, when and in what measure Congressional candidates cut and run from Trump.

Here’s a list of GOP Senate seats in play (with realclear politics average Presidential and Senate seat polling), or subject to being in play if the SS Trump sinks in a wave year. GOP incumbents are ahead in most races, but single digit incumbent leads and Clinton ahead has candidates keeping a close eye on life boats.

AZ (Even) – Who’d of thunk John McCain (+5) would be in a sweat? Trump doesn’t like US citizen prisoners of war, so McCain’s got that going for him.
IA (Even) – Charles Grassley’s (+8) past re-elections have been effortless (typically +18), but his succumbing to anti-Obamaism in a good government swing state puts the seat in play if 2016 is a wave year.
IL (Clinton +18) – First termer Mark Kirk (-6) is among the three mostly likely to be a goner.
IN (Trump +8) – Experienced (but rusty) candidate/former Senator Evan Bayh (no realclear polling info) is the Dem candidate in a seat up for grabs.
FL (Clinton +4) – The shine is off first termer Marco Rubio (+4) after his Cap’n Tinyhands remark, debate performance, and reversing himself to declare candidacy.
MO (Trump +6) – Roy Blunt (+5) is full on board with Trump.
OH (Clinton +3) – Rob Portman (+6) faces experienced candidate/former Governor Ted Strickland. Portman is triangulating for the optimum distance from the SS Trump.
PA (Clinton +9)– Democrat Kate McGinty is ahead of first termer but experienced pol Pat Toomey (-3), another of the three most likely goners.
NC (Clinton +2) – First termer Richard Burr (+1), who will be sandwiched between Trump and McCrory of the transgender bathrooms on the ballot, is losing ground to Democrat Deborah Ross.
NH (Clinton +8) – First termer Kelly Ayotte (-1), among the least conservative Republicans, is in the water but hasn’t let go of the ship. Ships pull down with them those that don’t get far enough away fast enough. ME Susan Collins has as much told Ayotte to get away.
WI (Clinton +9) – Experienced candidate/former Senator Russ Feingold has newby Ron Johnson (-11), one of those that showed up at the convention, gasping for air before the SS Trump has even sunk.

That’s 11 seats, including the IN open seat. Six are held by first termers. It’ll only take flipping four of the above (assuming NV remains Dem), less than half the nine the GOP flipped in 2014, and little more than a third of the list, to flip the Senate to Dem control with Clinton as President. Three of the four, IL, PA and WI, are well on their way to being flipped.