Cook Political Moves Georgia From Likely Republican to Lean R
In the wake of Donald Trump becoming the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, the Cook Political Report issued an updated Electoral College Scorecard. The latest rankings predict the Democratic nominee, likely Hillary Clinton, with 304 electoral votes, Donald Trump with 190 votes, and the remaining 44 votes as a tossup. 270 votes are required to win the presidency.
Changes from the previous scorecard, which had the Democratic candidate with 222 electoral votes, the GOP candidate with 206, and the remainder as tossups, include moving the Peach State from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Other changes move North Carolina from Lean R to Tossup, and Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin from Tossup to Lean Democratic. No state became more Republican.
As Greg Bluestein reports in today’s AJC, Georgia Republicans are in the process of deciding how much to embrace a Trump candidacy now that his nomination is virtually inevitable. Strong support for Trump among Georgia’s GOP officeholders and party leaders, especially if Newt Gingrich were to formally join the Trump team, would increase the odds of Georgia’s electoral votes going to Trump. An independent third party run by a conservative, continued strength of the #NeverTrump GOP contingent, or a prominent Georgia Democrat being named to a position in a future Clinton cabinet might be enough to tip the balance the other way.
In any case, hold on to your hats. It’s going to be a long six months until November.
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Jon Richards
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It is going to be a wonderful and entertaining summer.
Trump needs a VP to carry Florida and appeal to Midwesterners.
Who you thinking for that, Rubio or Kasich?
I like Rubio and have favored him but his poor showing in Fl needs analysis and addressing.
Rick Scott is not the guy nor is Newt. Kasich is not DC savvy.
Trump wisely says it will be a politician savvy with DC, suggesting a current or past Senator, House, WH staff, committee chair or such. A cool head reputation is advisable. But age is a problem with several for a succession plan.
I’m of the opinion that a VP has rarely played a part in winning a national election. With that said I think Kasich would be a logical and good pick. I take issue with your statement that Kasich isn’t DC savvy. What leads you to that conclusion? This is the guy who wrote the budget the last time the US actually had a balanced budget. He spent nearly 20 years in DC as a member of congress. How exactly is he not DC savvy?
Kasich: My bad, I was thinking of his constant I did this in Ohio talks.
If he passes muster, I’ll have no issue.
I agree. Hard to say any VP candidate has helped much in the recent past, but they can probably hurt, i.e. Palin, Quayle, Lieberman, Edwards.
I suppose Cheney and Gore might be examples of VP candidates who have helped, but probably marginal. Mostly they just weren’t mistakes.
……… An independent third party run by a conservative, continued strength of the #NeverTrump GOP contingent,……..
Definition of a RedState type ( Erick Erickson) Conservative:
1) Pro policemen of the world foreign policy, we cannot afford, and does not work. Not really sure how this is conservative, but hey Hillary is on your team.
2) Trade deals that wiped out working class jobs with countries that have slave like labor conditions, steal our intellectual property and manipulates currency. If we do anything about it you are a protectionist, Erickson/Hillary crowd wants to do more trade deals like this, that keeps killing wages, jobs and USA production. Once again Hillary is on your side.
3) Against allowing tax payers to negotiate drug prices which would save us about 60 percent off the cost. Once again Hillary takes big cash from pharma industry, and gives lib service, but at the end with Red State.
Other than social issues it seems Hillary, and the Erickson crowd agree a lot on issues. Both cannot understand why the average family feels left behind. Is the above conservative or pro selling out to the money changers in Washington?
John, where did you come up with this, and how does it relate to this post? Erickson no longer has anything to do with RedState, and to my knowledge, the posters there have their own opinions–there’s no one RedState opinion.
If you watch cable news the above three issues are what they are complaining about in the stop Trump movement led by Erick Erickson. It all started when Erick Erickson did not invite Trump to a Red State event. Your post is meaningless if we do not look at the issues driving the divide in the GOP. All polling shows the above 3 issues plus social issues is what is driving the debate within the party. Ironically the Dems are having the same issue, and their establishment as well wants to white wash what is the real debate. Like it or not, Erickson and Hillary are on the same side on the 3 out 4 of the key issues voters are focused on. It is rather ironic, that is what is driving the third party movement in the GOP led by Erick Erickson.
You really think the total collapse of the GOP is over these 4 issues and a mythical alignment of values between Erickson and Mrs. Clinton? I think you need to consider a wider perspective. These issues are a relatively small part of the picture. The root issue here is distrust of almost everything and almost everybody that is GOP. Trump and #NeverTrump are products of that distrust.
Please, Jon, before you completely ruin the comments section of this site for the next few days, let go of this Erick=Hillary thing.
Black,
I am driven by data, not what I feel about an issue. Right now 80 percent of adults have less than $2500 in their bank account, about 50% have less than $400 and this does not include massive debt obligations. Over 50% in both parties think our poorly negotiated trade/immigration/visa deals are a major factor. It does not get much more personal than your pocket book.
Also we have massive infrastructure issues at home, while we are spending tons of money on an endless foreign policy from Bush 2 to Obama that has no solutions in sight. Once again 70 percent of Americans do not agree with Hillary and Erick Erickson on this issue as well. Time to focus on America not be the policemen of the world.
The average American is drowning in healthcare cost, and thinks we should negotiate drug prices a key driver in expense. They do think the lobbyist are driving this policy, verse needs of the average family.
You can insult me all day, but it will not change the facts. Instead of insulting me, try making a rational point with some facts.
The only connection between the issues (and loosely associated data) you present above and the current state of the GOP is that these were some of the issues lied about. I don’t think the issues matter quite so much as the lies. If politicians were honest about their positions on the issues they could be categorized correctly and voted for or against accordingly. (Example: Gov Deal on Campus Carry and Religious freedom, Jody Hice swearing he wouldn’t vote for Boehner as speaker and then he did) But no, they lie, cheat and steal to stay in their positions. They say they believe one thing but their parliamentary maneuvers and votes show another. It breeds distrust and people have had enough of it.
I’ve been around long enough to know when you are getting fixated on something. Data? You’ve mentioned Erick Erickson and RedState no less than 11 times in just 3 comments on this thread alone. No matter what the GOP trade policy is on the price of rice in China, Erick and Redstate have nothing to do with this.
Lol… Facts show people vote their pocket books…. Feel what you want….
Let’s look at how folks vote. Let’s look at the last presidential election. What drove that result? Pocketbooks or distrust of the GOP candidate?
You are pissing into the wind Blake.
The Eiger,
This is a classic example of you taking personal shots over dealing with FACTS! It is not even debatable by people in your business it is all about money! This election every exit poll shows Jobs/wages as the key issue. This has been historical true since anyone has even tracked the data.
Ah, there’s the problem. I don’t watch cable news. And if it deals with Erickson, that means it’s coming from Fox, which I especially don’t watch.
Trust me, there is much more to the #NeverTrump movement than what’s on cable tv, and what Erick says.
The movement is lost via not dealing in any reality. How you guys cannot understand how 80 percent of people one or two checks away from total financial disaster are pissed, blows my mind. I am not saying Trump has the answer, but unlike you, I am not living in a bubble.
I am fully aware of and concerned about the plight of many in the lower middle class, where jobs that used to pay middle class wages have been replaced by automation, or have moved overseas. I know that there are few opportunities available for the 50 year old high school graduate whose job at the textile mill or packing plant no longer exists.
I’ve seen candidates like Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush promote educational policies that would allow the Waffle House waitress the opportunity to become a paralegal and double her paycheck, if not more. There are plenty of things going on here in Georgia to try to solve this problem for Peach State residents.
But that’s not what the angry mob wants. They’ve seen President Obama use his phone and his pen to grant benefits to people the Trumpsters believe are undeserving. Despite being told by Hannity, Limbaugh, Cain and their ilk that Congress can fix the problem, it’s actually not that simple.
So they go to the demagogue, Donald Trump, who proposes bumper sticker solutions like walls the Mexicans pay for, or 35% tariffs that would guarantee economic retaliation from other countries, or a pay to play foreign policy that would make the world far more dangerous than it is today.
Bill Clinton won back in 1992 because he was able to convince voters that he felt their pain, and promised that we would take care of them. I didn’t support Clinton’s pandering then, and I’m sure as heck not going to support Trump’s pandering now.
Jon,
First Clinton supported the same trade policy that Erick Erickson advocates that killed manufacturing jobs ie NAFTA CAFTA HAVTA find a job. Once again this is a big part of the populist uprising in both parties. Now your solution is for a 50 year old guy laid off, is to get 20k in debt for a certification that pays them 30 to 40k a year. Are you getting the ROI Problem? Mean while their kids are drowning in student loan debt competing with them for the same job, once again no ROI. I talked to a 26 year old conservative in your business, you know. And he said it best,your generation told us get an education, and play be the rules, and it all will work out. He said now my friends are 50 to 100k in debt hoping for 40k jobs after college. And you wonder why the majority of people if you combine Trump with Sanders, have had it, with Hillary/Erickson/establishment solutions from both parties?
You guys can throw all the spit ball BS at me all you want, but it does not change the facts. I heard the same BS last time, when I warned about the issue before the last down turn, it did not change what happen. And this time, I warned about the populist movement while you, Black, The Eiger laughed, and who was right? BTW, we will see a down turn again like last time, low wages, means low demand…..we are running out of credit to cover it up. Why the yield curve is way out of whack… But laugh away….. As I said the number one reason a business fails, is they lie to themselves! Think about it…..BTW if 80 percent of people are one or two checks away from fiscal disaster, it is way beyond just lower middle class.
So what is your solution to this dilemma? I see plenty of finger pointing, but no answers. And please don’t say that Donald Trump will solve the problem cause he’s a businessman.
Before you solve a problem, we all most agree what are the underlying factors behind it.
Globalization:
I am all for free trade, but deals cannot be one sided that is stupid trade. As a country we cannot keep consuming more than we produce, and make it up by borrowing money. A key driver behind our last down turn, and the next one. A very simple formula you look at the % of personal debt and government debt accumulated relative to GDP. If this gets way out of whack it is only time before it bust ie similar concept behind yield curves. Credit default swaps/derivatives guaranteed by tax payers , and not treated like an insurance product, which it is by any measure, allows this out of control leverage verse fixing the problem. Warren Buffet just put out a warning on this at his annual shares annual meeting.
I could on and on, it seems many of the problem are we put temporary solutions to give tax payers a temporary sugar high rather than fix the lack of production.
We must fight this battle by focusing on what drives growth in our country at a rational ROI.
1) Our country was based on having solid infrastructure. Obviously we are falling way behind, simple concept he who moves people , products and services most efficient wins.
2) Free trade is fine but it the agreement cannot be a one sided deals that drives wages down, steals IP from companies and allows currency manipulation. We cannot just throw our hands up, and let the deals take our country away our production.
3) We have to change the tax system to afford entitlements as well make many adjustments as I have proposed many times on this site. I would end payroll taxes, and replace them with a NST or VAT. It would stimulate the economy, and create more tax revenue via growth.
4) We need to integrate high school and colleges as much as possible to lower cost and increase quality. The mission of education should by 12th grade all kids are job skill ready and or prepared for a 4 year college. Also we need to create a partnership with local chambers, and schools promoting co-op/internship opportunities starting in high school. And let business work with schools telling them what the needs are for job requirements not the opposite.
4) We must end the War on Drugs, treat it like a health issue. Pew institute claims it would reduce poverty by 30 percent.Combine this with similar sentence reform like we did in Georgia for non violent offenders, it would be a real help.
5) End the policemen of the world foreign policy, cannot afford it, and it has only made the problem worse. We would be safer, and have more money to invest in our own country, and or help balance the budget.
5) We must stop putting tax payers at irrational risk level, verse the private company taking all upside, and leaving tax payers with the vast majority of liability, if the loan goes bad, via government backed loan programs. This promotes bad behavior……
This is a start….
Sounds like a great platform for Congress. Why didn’t you run for Gingrey’s open seat? I would love to have you show the world how to get things done. But……. all we get is you telling us everyone is wrong on a blog…..
It’s hard to see ‘an independent third party run’ in the offing. For one thing, who would head a renegade party? Not Cruz.
I agree that it will be a long 6 months–it’ll be loud, expensive, and dirty too.
“Who would head a renegade party?” Mitt Romney went on his Donald Trump rant a month or so go for a reason. He could be setting himself up for a run. If someone like a Mitt Romney were to run and win just a handful of states. Say Florida, Utah, New Hampshire, Michigan and another small state then he keeps Hillary or Trump from getting the number of electoral votes they need to win outright. Then the republican House picks the president. There is no way the House picks Trump or Hillary. They will probably pick Romney or Paul Ryan.
I’m not saying this is going to happen. I’m just saying that this has happened in the past. A long time ago.
If the House is going to pick the president, I say they take a tip from the Senate and wait until the new Congress is seated and let them pick the president!
Why? They didn’t wait for the “new congress” before they ramrodded obama care down our throats in 2010.
Oh! And let’s not forget the polling shows across the board Republicans have lower favorability and higher unfavorability than Democrats. IIRC, no one preferred Republicans to Democrats. Even GOPers like their party less than Democrats like their own.
In short, the Republican Party is in some serious trouble and no one is to blame but Republicans.
It is Cinco de Mayo. Does anybody believe these numbers will be anywhere close to the actual outcome 6 months from now?
What if Hillary is indicted? What if Trump’s oppo research uncovers something that finally sticks to the Clintons? What if there is a major terror attack? So many variables that any poll or prediction is irrelevant at this stage. Nice for a chat, but that’s about it.
How many people said that the polls from last June, July, and August that showed Trump winning were just crap because they were too far out? No way Trump wins the nomination. I know I said that. The problem with Trump is you either love him or hate him. There are not many people in the middle to win over like a typical nominee has. His numbers may improve somewhat from where they are now, but Hillary Clinton is going to beat him like a drum.
Disagree. Blue collar Dems carry Trump to the White House.
Like I have said before. There aren’t enough racist, angry, white men in the US (even from the democrat party) to make up a 30+ point loss in women voters. Not going to happen.
As a republican, I’m going to sit back and let the house burn down. Say I told you so and then support someone that can beat Hillary in 2020 and rebuild the republican party. You may not believe it, but this election is already over.
Last June, Bush was the presumptive nominee, a lock. Same for Hillary on the other side (she likely still gets the nomination, but nobody predicted Sanders would win so many states and give her a strong run). So polls were wrong then and mean absolutely nothing now.
GA will not vote for Hillary or Bernie, just not going to happen. Cook and his crew can play around with it, but there is nothing to indicate a big surge in dem votes if Hillary is the nominee. I would argue dems will lose votes because blacks will not be inspired as happened in the last 2 presidential elections.
I’m not arguing that the polls today will be the eventual outcome. I’m saying that according to polls as of today Trump is losing women voters by 30+ points. I’m saying that there aren’t enough racist, angry, white men to make that difference up between now and November. What is the misogynist Trump going to do to win over women voters between now and then so that he doesn’t lose that demographic by 30 points? Romney lost women voters by 14% and you think Trump can win this election even if he loses women voters by 30 points? Let’s come back to reality.
And of course Georgia will vote for Trump. I never said it wouldn’t.
You mentioned polls from last June. I just pointed out how wrong they were then and how likely they are wrong now.
Trump received more GOP primary votes than any other candidate in history despite facing one of if not the largest field. He did this spending far less than most if not all of the major candidates. He has crossover appeal that no other GOPer offers resulting in many new voters moving to the GOP over the past few months. He has a message that resonates with a large segment of our working (or those who desire to work) taxpayers.
You can play old school identity politics all day, but Trump has found a way to make up for any losses in various segments by having a broad appeal across all facets of our society. Predicting he will fail because {fill in the blank, women, blacks, Hispanics, etc} are not supporting him is a false way of approaching this election. I hope dems are just as naïve in their planning.
Just go ahead and flag this post so that the day after the election I can say I told you so on cinco de mayo.
Bandera aplicada.
I estimate five to ten percent of Repubs won’t vote Trumpet under any circumstances. Also most “Reagan Democrats” are dead or became Republicans years ago.
On the other side Hilly gets most all the minority vote and the old line/traditional Democrats. There are a few that don’t like her because of trade deals, bad foreign policy and corruption but would they vote for Trumpet? Probably not. He will have to bring in folks that rarely vote or don’t vote at all. Also his VP pick will be quite important.
But for me it’s way too early to call this election.
gcp,
I agree, but also we need to add in factors like a down turn in the economy, unrest with terrorist act and Middle East situation becoming worse.
They are equally incompetent on foreign affairs. Hilly supported Iraq War, Libya mess..Now she wants more troops in Syria, regime change, no fly zone.
Meanwhile Trumpet has either a secret plan for ISIS or wants he to “seize” the oil fields. In other words he doesn’t know what to do. And he couldn’t explain the nuclear triad in one of the debates.
What you’re describing here is not “equal incompetence”. There is a huge difference between having a bad idea and having no ideas.
I will stay with my interpretation of “incompetence” but I will acknowledge the results of the incompetence of the two candidates is quite different.
Incompetent nah,
Hillary is flat evil and all decisions are egocentric.
Trump is capable of making good decisions and adjusting to good advisors. Hopefully his wall idea will morph to a symbol for a solid immigration plan rather than a physical wall. And hopefully he listens.
Obama is a motivated incompetent seeing America as a colonialist threat to the world.
Let’s see; Economy is doing pretty good despite difficult circumstances, fewer of our people are getting killed all over the world, we’re relatively safe here despite dangerous circumstances, deficits are getting smaller… if that’s incompetent I’d have to say you have very high standards indeed!
?
If we could borrow a million at O% on a balloon note our economy would be pretty good and a lot better than the US. The slow rate of economic growth is a good indicator that money is being poorly spent.
http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us
Salt and b,
This is a better way to measure the issue of our economy falling to far in the red. This is why the bubble will bust. Why I have recommended what I posted for for years, as you know.
……….National Debt Tops $18 Trillion: Guess How Much You Owe?……..
…………The availability of credit in the U.S. was a major catalyst in the economic boom of the twentieth century. However, too much of a good thing can also be a problem. Is the U.S. too reliant on debt? Is the federal government mortgaging the future earnings of an entire generation? In this article, we’ll explore these and other issues as we take a look at the debt cycle in America……….
http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2015/04/24/national-debt-tops-18-trillion-guess-how-much-you-owe/#b5c68515ebda
69-year old Trump picking 73-year old Gingrich for vice president? Yeah, that would be looking to the future…if Trump needs Gingrich to carry Georgia, then the election REALLY is over!
Trump just needs a running mate from Florida…and Ohio…and Virginia. Since 1928 (the days of Herbert Hoover), no Republican has been elected president without winning those three states…all of them, not just one. Virginia is the least likely of those three to go for Trump given that every statewide-elected official there is a Democrat and Northern Virginia, home to about a third of the state’s electorate, has been trending Democratic the last 15 or so years (Obama easily won NOVA in 2008 and 2012). Florida went for Obama by just a single percentage point in 2012, so perhaps some opening there for Trump, but remains to be seen whether the many moderates in that state will back him…there are only so many votes in the most conservative part of the state, the I-10 corridor running from the Panhandle to Jacksonville.